CFHC 1998 News and Story Archives

Central Florida Hurricane Chasers
1998 Story Archives

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The Record-Breaking 1998 Hurricane Season Ends. Dr. William Gray's Predictions for 1999.
8PM EST - 6 December 1998

The most deadly Atlantic Hurricane season in 200 years is over.Hurricane Mitch will be remembered in infamy in Central America. Nicole became the last Hurricane of the season and became extratropical on the 2nd.

A trend exists in the last several years (1997 excluded), and it seems hurricanes are in an up cycle right now, and may be for another 10 years. Meaning, more of them, and more potentially destructive storms. Backing this claim up is Dr. William Gray's Hurricane Predictions for 1999. He calls for 14 named storms (Quite a bit above average), and 4 major hurricanes (one more than this year's three and two more than the average). 9 of the 14 storms will become hurricanes. He also raises the chances for an Atlantic Coastal hit on the US next year. I tend to agree with this. Most all of 1998's storms were in September and October. This is quite unusual. Six storms actually made landfall in the US, which is quite higher than usual. Nicole was unusual for lasting into December, and Mitch was just Mitch. Staggering number of people dead, (15000), amazing windspeed, strongest October Storm ever, In Top 5 strongest recorded Storms in the Atlantic, the most deadly Atlantic Hurricane in 200 years.

So keep watch next season, it may be too active even for our tastes. And we certainly do NOT want to see a Mitch type system again hit land. Anywhere.

Updates on this page during the off season will be sporadic at best, and probably increase in frequency toward the start of 1999 Hurricane Season. It starts on June 1st, 1999.

- [mac]

Late Season Nicole
9 AM EST - 28 November 1998

Amazingly, yet another storm has formed before the end of the hurricane season. Right now Nicole is a strong Tropical Storm nearing hurricane status off the coast of Africa. Although there is almost no chance of it turning toward the US, the fact that this late season storm exists is of in itself amazing. An end to the deadly and yet amazing season that was seen this year. This is only the 3rd time the Atlantic has reached the "N" storm. (Last time being in 1995)
Does this mean we can expect a busy 1999 season? Not necissarily, but it does give rise to bigger chances.
And Nicole, really caught us off guard.

- [mac]

Mitch leaves the last Mark.
8 AM EST - 6 November 1998

Mitch caused a period of rain in Central Florida and even some damaging Tornadoes down in the Northern Keys. And some minor flooding. Mitch has also turned into an extratropical system and is out to sea and moving further out to sea currently.
This storm has made the top 5 strongest hurricanes ever, which is interesting, but also at a very costly price, also making the top 5 deadliest Atlantic Hurricanes ever. We never ever like to see that happen. The entire idea behind information like this is to give folks knowledge about these storms. The Central American area that did get hit hard is not privy to this type of information, unfortunately. It probably could have helped keep the death toll down quite a bit. A little bit of preperation and knowledge is much better than nothing at all. Regardless, organizations like the Red Cross will help them out with our help, which they desperately need.

Mitch is also likely the LAST tropical system of 1998. Which in general was a wild season for tracking. More wild in track than the busier 1995 year. I am starting to believe Dr William Gray's suggestions that we may be entering into a 10-15 year period of more frequent landfalling hurricanes.

A more detailed season summary will be written after the season officially ends on November 30th.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Warnings up from New Smyrna Beach South around to Tarpon Springs on the West Coast. Much weakened Tropical Storm Mitch heads towards Florida.
11 AM EST - 4 November 1998

Mitch weakened overnight to a depression and is now back up to Tropical Storm strength. It should be a rain maker and stay relatively weak as it turns extratropical while it passes over Florida. It may cause some scattered severe storms or weak tornadoes over Florida. Rain is a sure bet anywhere in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Which includes a good portion of the East Central Florida Area.

Composite Radar Image of Florida
Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

The Mitch is back. Tropical Storm Mitch regenerates in Bay of Campeche. Over 7000 have died in Central America.
5 PM EST - 3 November 1998

Amazingly, Mitch has held together enough after being declassified as a tropical depression and regenerated as a 45MPH Tropical Storm in the Bay of Campeche.
It is not expected to strengthen into a hurricane again. The current forecast track takes it over the northern tip of the Yucatan, and then into Southern Florida as a Tropical Storm. It could mean a rain event for us later on. But the chance for Mitch to be a major threat to Florida has long been over.
It is also important to note that this storm has been a killer. Over seven-thousand people have been killed by Mitch in Central America. So Mitch continues to be a very infamous storm. Watching Mitch now is more a tracking exercise. Be prepared for Rain later this week.
If anything changes, we will try to update the page.

Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

Tropical Depression Mitch.
10 PM EST - 31 October 1998

It's a rain even now for Central America. Will Mitch make its way into the gulf before giving up the ghost? Maybe. Stay tuned...
Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

Mitch beached. Back to Tropical Storm. Will it return to sea?
Midnight EST - 30 October 1998

Mitch beats the models again and moves a little south, over the coast, of Honduras and weakens. It's chances to do much have now decreased greatly.
It may even dissipate over land, giving flooding rains to Honduras. However, the models continue to want it to move northward. Watch it for a little longer.
Sorry for limited updates. I was out at the space center all day and yesterday.
Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

The Mitch Saga Continues. Now a cat 3, hovering off the Honduras coastline.
8 AM EST - 28 October 1998

Mitch has been a bad hurricane. It is currently pounding the coast of Honduras, but staying offshore. Stalled. With a truely difficult forecast (or outright guess even). Mitch could do anything in its current position. However, since it has stalled over water a little further south and east than predicted, it once again has the chance to move further north avoiding land the entire time. However, there is a full 180 degree spread among the forecasting models which makes them worthless.
Take a crap shoot and guess where it may go. It probably has about the same probability as one of the models verifying for 3-4 days away.
1998 has been characterized by some of the most hard to forecast hurricanes I have seen in the last several years. More challenging than the 1995 season, which is the first one we started writing on. THIS is one of the top reasons why we find tracking these storms so compelling. Mitch is a perfect example of it. A major "super"-hurricane doing a dance in LATE OCTOBER which threatens much land while remaining a total crap shoot to forecast. It causes problems for the folks in central america, and may cause trouble for the USA later on. Amazing. Dangerous as they may be, and mindful of the pain that they cause, it still is an awesome sight from a distance. I hope that it would just stay over open water and not make landfall, but alas, it probably will not happen that way.

Florida and the gulf coast still are not off the hook by any means. We all must continue to watch it (if you are reading this page I severly doubt I have to tell you that but I will anyway). Until then, we wait for Mitch's next move. Whenever that may be.

In other news, GOES-8 is back in operation so check out some satellite images! It seems that it is having problems with attitude control, however, and the image does seem to be off center ocasionally. (Mitch really isn't jumping around like a mad storm--at least now.)
Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

Mitch slows to a still highly respectable 165MPH Windspeed. Moves toward the west... Slows forward motion. GOES-8 offline?
11 AM EST - 27 October 1998

Mitch has returned to a more westward track, which brings the probabilities for a hit from Belize to the tip of the Yucatan in Mexico up quite a bit. This also lessens the chance for a hit in Florida. Mitch is still a VERY slow mover, and has actually slowed down over night. So again this lowers confidence in future tracks. The westward movement is bad for Central America, better for us (and sts-95). But a hit on Central America is still not a sure thing because of the slow movement. They will be getting some tropical storm force winds and rains no doubt. Where the storm makes landfall is what is in Question.
The windspeed has lowered to 165MPH, which is still a Category 5 storm and still an unbelievably powerful Hurricane. It would be catastrophic if it were to hit land at this strength.
To add to the pot of weirdness, it appears that GOES-8--the weather satellite that provides pictures of the Atlantic Hurricane basin--has stopped sending back new images. This makes it a degree more difficult to track this storm. Other satellites can get really skewed images of the storm, but they lack the detail of a true GOES-8 image. It'll be interesting to see if this problem gets fixed.

Check out the awesome looking Mitch while you can (Especially the high res visible during the day) from these nice satellite views (which can be java animated). NOTE: THESE ARE GOES-8 IMAGES. PICTURES WILL BE "OLD" UNTIL IF AND WHEN GOES-8 RETURNS TO PROPER OPERATION:
These can be found: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

Monster Mitch makes it to 180MPH Winds 906MB (26.75 inch) pressure
4 PM EST - 26 October 1998

Amazing.
Mitch is the 4th most powerful storm EVER recorded in the Atlantic, beaten only by:

1) Gilbert 1988
2) 1935 Labor Day storm in the keys
3) Allen 1980
4 Tied) Camille 1969
4 Tied) Mitch 1998

The threat to land is still uncertain, but the chances for a US (Florida) hit are slowly rising. (Still too early to tell by any means). This statement is meant not to scare (probabilities are too low), but to give awareness to the existence of this storm. If it were to hit land it probably won't be as a category 5 storm. (Thank God)

Anyone in the Western Caribbean and Gulf Coast MUST MUST MUST watch this storm over the next 5-6 days, as it may take a while to "decide" what to do.

Check out the awesome looking Mitch while you can (Especially the high res visible during the day) from these nice satellite views (which can be java animated). These can be found: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Also check out the current storm spotlight for more detailed info on Mitch.

- [mac]

Mitch Makes Solid Category Five Status with 170 MPH (Yes 170) sustained Windspeed
1 PM EST - 26 October 1998

Enough said. More to come. People in the West Caribbean, and the entire gulf should be watching this one day by day. It's still a slow mover.
More to come later....

- [mac]

Borderline Category 5 Mitch edges out Georges as the strongest storm of the 1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season
9 AM EST - 26 October 1998

Mitch has 155MPH winds this morning. A borderline Category Five storm, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. It's meandering toward Swan Island in the Caribbean, north of Honduras in Central America. The most interesting thing is what may happen in the future with this storm.

The current thinking is that it will slow its forward motion even more and eventually creep toward the north. This is shown by the some of the DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) The MRF has an especially odd forecast that is unlikely. However, all maintain a movement at a snails pace, which does not give us much thought to what effects it will have on land. We will just have to keep watch on this system until it goes away for good. Which may be a while.

Will this have an effect on sts-95 (Shuttle Discovery w/ John Glenn)? Doubtful. It should be slow enough to avoid bothering the launch if it were to head toward the west coast of Florida. About the only effects I could see happening is that it could alter the pressure gradient and create a stronger northeasterly flow of wind into the coast. A windy day, perhaps. But not directly related to Mitch. Even then, it should be well within the limits for launch. I'm going to be out along the banana river for the launch myself. So I hope so!

- [mac]

What a Mitch!
8 PM EST - 25 October 1998

Amazing, Mitch definately has a chance to become a category 5 by tonight. It's movement now is toward the due west, which may start to threaten Honduras. This picture speaks for itself:

It's future movement may put central America at risk. However, it does not mean that it cannot migrate into the gulf. The almost southerly jog is something exhibited sometimes by storms of this strength. Zeb in the pacific exhibited this recently, only to regain its more northwesterly motion a little later on.
Current thoughts: It will peak as a cat 5, then form a double eyewall structure which will cause it to lose some strength. It will at least clip central America and gravitate more toward the north later on. How much to the north and how fast is up in the air. Any storm THIS big must be watched by all. I'd expect Watches or Warnings for Hondorus shortly.

- [mac]

Mitch becomes cat 3 with 120MPH winds. Turning Northwest.
Midnight Eastern Standard Time - 25 October 1998

Turn back the clocks tonight! We move from EDT to EST.
Mitch becomes a category three tonight and starts moving toward the northwest. This means that the immediate threat to land is decreasing, however it still has plenty of time to meander since steering currents are not at all strong at the moment. If it gets into the gulf everywhere from Texas to Florida will have to watch. Keep an eye out for sure.

MitchPics may now be in some of these nice satellite views (which can be java animated). These can be found: [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Hurricane Mitch with 100MPH winds moves slowly north to northwest. Watches up for Jamaica.
1 PM EDT - 24 October1998

Mitch has grown stronger overnight, and is now a category 2 hurricane. With more strengthening expected. At 1PM an eye was starting to show up on the satellite pics.
As far as future track, it is suggested that it may tend more to the west which would be good for us here in Florida, and good for the folks in Jamaica. If the storm doesn't move quickly toward the west a warning may be issued for Jamaica. After that the steering currents become week so all bets are off. It will be landlocked, so somewhere around the gulf will have to deal with it sometime next week. (even late next week) This includes Mexico.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Mitch forms in Caribbean Sea drifting slowly northward.
10 AM EDT - 23 October1998

As expected, the 13th tropical depression of the season has formed into Mitch. Making it a pretty good October storm. The future of Mitch will be a slow one as it moves toward the north at a snails pace. Possibly more northwest as time goes on. There is a fair chance that it will make it into the eastern gulf, possibly after crossing land. No Watches or Warnings for it are out yet, but it still is expected to reach hurricane strength.
Should be interesting to see if it may have an effect on Florida later on. (MUCH TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE NOW)
Right now it is windy in Florida due to a strong high pressure north of us. This is not related to Mitch at all. It just brings us nice cool weather.
It may have an effect on the Delta 2 launch with Deep Space 1 tomorrow morning (8AM).
Keep it tuned!

- [mac]

Tropical Depression #13 forms in Caribbean Sea
Midnight EDT - 22 October1998

The secondary peak that occurs in some years seems to be happening now. A tropical depression is moving northward into the Caribbean sea. It is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (Mitch) and possibly a hurricane later on. There may be watches out for some of the Caribbean islands coming tomorrow.

More to come tomorrow...

- [mac]

Non-Tropical October
Noon EDT - 19 October1998

Although--even with a disturbance south of Cuba--the previous month was very active, this month has proven to be totally inactive. Because of this news has been slow here. This disturbance, however, may change it in the next few days. Or not, as with the other "possible" Mitch canidates.
Time will tell.
- [mac]

Tropics "quiet" again.
Noon EDT - 4 October1998

The tropics have gone quiet again and there is nothing being tracked currently. However, Hurricane season is not over until November 31^st. However there are two areas we watching. One in the Caribbean that is looking rather battered at the moment and another in the Central Atlantic which has a better chance of becoming a tropical depression soon. If it does it will move into the Caribbean. We have time to watch both.

Sorry for the lack of updates, but Georges was taxing to say the least.

- [mac]

Georges downgraded. Jeanne is left heading toward the Azores.
1 PM EDT - 29 September 1998

Georges is done with. Finished, and over. FInally. After over two weeks of trouble. It is still causing tremendous amounts (over two feet) of rainfall in the panhandle and Alamaba with the flooding that goes with it, but the winds have wound down.
Jeanne is weakening and heading east to the Azores.
Other than that, it is quiet once again. Let's hope we don't see much more the rest of the season. However, in truth, I expect at least one more threatening storm to occur before the end of the Hurricane season on November 31st.
- [mac]

Tropical Storm Georges. Alabama, Mississippi, and West Panhandle getting rained on.
Midnight EDT - 29 September 1998

Georges has been downgraded after making landfall in Mississippi. New Orleans was spared the worst and the areas that did get hit are being flooded. In an interesting twist, Georges seems to be drifting to the South Southeast, towards the gulf again. However most models don't take it all the way out and have it moving towards the panhandle in its weakened state.

See the New Orleans Radar Animation from Intellicast.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

Some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source. Note that sites will be down/crowded due to people hunting info on this storm.

- [mac]

Georges slowing down forward motion. Flood threat becoming severe.
11AM EDT - 27 September 1998

The exact path of this storm will make an incredible difference in regards to New Orleans and anywhere else it may decide to make landfall. The better situation for New Orleans proper would be a hit a little to the east of the city, the worst case would be slightly to the west, or a direct hit, as it would cause a larger storm surge. Flooding will become a major problem since the storm is forecasted to virtually drift slowly near the coast for a while. Storm surge pushed up into the mouth of the Mississippi river would also be a problem, and the winds would just aggrivate the problem. At 11AM it has slowed to a forward motion of 8MPH which would drag out the flooding potential..

Best of luck to folks in the Warning area.

See the New Orleans Radar Animation from Intellicast.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges Targets the Gulf Coast. Strengthens a bit.
9PM EDT - 26 September 1998

10PM: Minor update: A definate eye is becoming visible on infrared satellite images, it appears Georges is now a Category 3 storm. The 11PM Update from the Hurricane Center should prove interesting.

Wow. Georges is approaching the Gulf coast and anywhere in the warning area is vulnerable, but the most likely place is New Orleans, LA. As much as I hate to say it. It is nearing Category 3 strength. And is slowing its forward motion. If this track pans out, it will be VERY BAD for the area. Especially New Orleans if you know how much of the town is below sea level. Flooding and storm surge will be a huge problem.

New Orleans is not by any means a sure hit. It definately would be the most potentially destructive, but anywhere along the coast will get hit hard.

If anyone knows of a real audio broadcast of live news from the New Orleans or anywhere in the Warning area please let us know.

See the New Orleans Radar Animation from Intellicast.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges in Gulf... Heading Towards Alabama to Texas Coast... New Orleans?
9AM EDT - 26 September 1998

Quick update today... Less time for me to update...
Hurricane Georges brushed by the keys to the south and spared the absolute worst, but still managed to cause a good deal of damage and flooding. A few tornadoes were spawned in central Florida, and a little damage occured in South Brevard, but otherwise it could have been worse.
Georges future is still uncertain, unfortunately it looks like a hit in New Orleans is currently most likely, however that could change. Georges could stall out and strengthen. Or stall out and move under shear. The rapid strengthening expected hasn't. Apparently the upper patterns have changed a bit. I'll really go out on a limb and say it'll be somewhere between strong tropical storm strength to a major cat 4 hurricane when it hits land.
It really is that convoluted.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges' Eye Closing in on Key West, with 105MPH Winds. Hurricane Watches now out from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks, FL. Tornado watch for Central Florida.
11:30AM EDT - 25 September 1998

Hurricane Georges eyewall is almost on Key West now, gusts of near 94MPH have been reported by HAM folks in Key West. They will be getting the worst of it starting now through the next hour or two. The eastern and southeastern parts of the eyewall are the worst.

Hurricane Watches for the Gulf have been put up, and it's not looking good for there. Folks along there should be preparing now. If you live in that area in the watch and are waking up you should be getting plans together now, as the storm will be approaching around 36 hours from now. So you have a good day and half of tomorrow to get prepared.

Listen to WIOD News Radio 610 from Miami.. Live Georges Coverage. (Real Audio)

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.

Radar Loop From Miami.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges continues strengthening Warnings on the West coast of Florida extended north to Sarasota.
11:30PM EDT - 24 September 1998

My final update of the night has the storm nearing even closer to Marathon Key in the Florida Keys. Tornadoes have been spawed in Dade county. Tomorrow Central Florida will begin to feel some of the side-effects of the storm with increased winds and rain as well as the chance for weak short-lived tornadoes.
The future track takes the storm in the eastern gulf and up towards Pensacola. Yet again, it could err either way. So folks from New Orleans, LA to the Big Bend Area need to watch out for a direct hit.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day for Florida. I wish everyone the best of luck and for those who decided to stay in the Florida Keys, we will pray for you.

Until tomorrow...

Listen to WIOD News Radio 610 from Miami.. Live Georges Coverage. (Real Audio)

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.

Radar Loop From Miami.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

10PM Mini Update Added... Georges clearly over water now, South and Southwest Florida waits... Effects in Central Florida.
9PM EDT - 24 September 1998

10PM Mini Update. The Hurricane is causing tornadoes in south Florida...
For More info....
Listen to WIOD News Radio 610 from Miami.. Live Georges Coverage. (Real Audio)

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.

9:30PM Update. After reviewing more information I have got send an alert to the folks along the Gulf Coast... Say from Mississippi to the big bend area in Florida. To say conditions are ideal for intensification of this system would be an understatement. If Georges makes it into the gulf we could be looking at a high cat 3 or cat 4 hitting the areas in the NE gulf. The watches will come, so I would suggest getting prepared tomorrow.
Also, I would have NOT stayed on the Florida Keys if I was down there. Folks who did probably have made a bad mistake..
Original 9PM Update:

Well evacuations are done, Georges in increasing in strength, it approaches the keys and we wait. Here near Daytona we have had somewhat heavy rains that are NOT a part of Georges, but we already are seeing effects in the fact that the pressure gradient between the High near us and Georges is causing a steady easterly wind from about 15-20MPH, which may get stronger as Georges moves northwest. Central Florida is under high wind advisories and flood watches for now until tomorrow.

Georges itself is now at 85MPH winds and is over the Florida straits now. It is still moving slowly toward the keys at around 12MPH. Lets hope it decides to move a little quicker so that it has less time to strengthen. Many folks on the western coast of Florida have prepared for the storm, which is a really good move. Track beyond 24 hours is still uncertain!

More updates to come around 11PM.

Listen to WIOD News Radio 610 from Miami.. Live Georges Coverage. (Real Audio)

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.

Radar Loop From Miami.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges still over Cuba. Hurricane Warnings up for South Florida. Into the gulf scenario looking more likely.
10 AM EDT - 24 September 1998

Georges is still just inland from the eastern coast of Cuba and could pop out anytime today, it is still moving west-northwest. This makes it more likely for it to move over the keys into the Gulf of Mexico. Which is potentially more dangerous than if it were to go into south Florida for folks in the Panhandle to New Orleans because of the length of time the storm would have to restrengthen. It still is holding at minimum hurricane strength no doubt to its well established upper pattern which would allow rapid restrengthening when the center gets over water again.

It is also important to note that even though the gulf situation is becoming more likely, it does not mean that south florida and any of Central Florida is out of the picture yet. Again, until the storm gets off cuba for a few hours it'll be difficult to tell what it will do.

The Hurricane center has reluctantly put up Hurricane Warnings for the South Florida coast this morning, including all of the keys and Miami. The entire island chain of the keys is under a mandatory evacuation order and there is no southbound traffic allowed on US1 south of Homestead. Those in the keys who decided to ride it out will be pretty much stuck there and will have to hope that the storm surge isn't too large.

All of Florida should still keep an eye on this, and Folks west of Florida (AL. MI, LA) should also be aware of the storm. The best case scenario is that it spends more time over cuba and weakens and moves through Florida quickly as a weak tropical storm. The worst case is it for to pop north of Cuba strengthen and approach New Orleans as a major hurricane from a southeast direction. And of course anything in between. Pray for the former scenario.

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.

Radar Loop From Miami.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges Future Still Uncertain! Tropical Storm Karl forms east of Bermuda.
11 PM EDT - 23 September 1998

11:30PM - Just a quick somber note about Georges. The Associated Press is reporting around 110 deaths from Georges in the Caribbean, as well as over one billion dollars worth of damage. Unfortunately I believe both of these number will rise as many of the areas on Hispaniola are very ill prepared for storms like this one. Folks in Florida should know this and be prepared. Pray.

Wow, I certainly hoped that with the 11PM advisory we would be magically blessed with more concrete information, but it is not the case. The Hurricane Center has kept it at Minimal Hurricane strength because the surrounding atmosphere is nearly perfect for intensification, with the only detrement being the fact that the center is still over land, although very close to exiting the coast of Cuba. It's moving to the West Northwest (290^o). The Hurricane center admits (in the 11PM Discussion) to having high uncertainty with the future track in 24 hours, stating it could err 100 miles in either direction. Thus, folks in Central Florida, and Florida in general still can't turn their backs. In fact, most of the Southeast and gulf coast still must keep an eye on it. From a tracker's point of view Georges is a very interesting storm.

The Hurricane center has held off issuing warnings for the South Florida coast because of a slight slowdown in forward motion. They will probably do it tomorrow, but I have a feeling they are frustrated with the situation and lack of info from hurricane hunters (Since the center is over Cuba).

That said, Status Quo here. I'm going to bed. I'm hoping that with the 5AM advisory we can upgrade from being truly clueless to only mildly clueless as to the exact track and intensity of this storm.

Wow, as I write this, TD#11 indeed has become Tropical Storm Karl. What an amazing mid-late season!

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.

Note: Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges Position? TD#11 forms.
10 PM EDT - 23 September 1998

This is a minor update waiting for the 11PM Advisory with questions.
I don't have the ability to talk to the hurricane hunters and such, but I'm not sure I agree with the center position that the Hurricane center has been putting out. But that is just an opinion. I think it's slightly north. Am I the only one noticing this? I'm thinking there is a world of debate at the hurricane center about this very thing as well as the posting of Warnings for S. Florida. I'll hold off more comment until after the 11PM advisory.

Unbelievable, not since the 1995 season have we had 4 concurrent systems in the Atlantic. Karl may be named at 11PM and would have 4! storms in the Atlantic at one time. Even though the other 3 besides George seem unlikely to do anything to land, it still is amazing from a hurricane tracker point of view. It'll be interesting to watch how "#11", Jeanne and Ivan interact because of their proximity to each other.

Note Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

Georges back over water, weakened. Future still uncertain. Hurricane Watches out for south Florida.
10 AM EDT - 23 September 1998

Click here for Florida Local Weather Service Office Hurricane Statements.
Well this morning I hoped there would be more information about the future track, but there really isn't anything new. The scenarios in the last update could all occur. The Hurricane Center issued watches for South Florida as a precaution. The watches are south of Deerfield beach around the coast and back up to the Ft. Myers area on the west coast. Including the keys. A mandatory evacuation exists for the Lower Keys (south of Marathon or so).
I'm holding off predicting until the afternoon or evening on which of the scenarios seems more likely now. Everyone in Florida needs to watch this one during the day in order to make decisions. Keep watching the media and the Official requests.
I wish I could say more now, but the track is still ambiguous.

Note Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

- [mac]

"Where is the Center?" Scenarios for Georges and Hurricane Jeanne.
11:30 PM EDT - 22 September 1998

George is now in Hati, or at least we think. The Quote "Where is the Center?" Comes from the Hurricane Center's discussion driving home the point that Georges has weakened over the rugged mountains of Hispaniola.
Now to the meat: Where will she go?

Note Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.

Well it "appears" that Georges may be ready to poke its eye out over the water again and regain strength. Because of the uncertainty of it being over the mountains the Hurricane center has put off issuing watches for Florida. (although the staged evacuations for the Florida keys are starting). Several Possibilites still exist. The most likely currently is that it will hit either in the central Keys or South Florida and then go up the state through central Florida after making landfall. Another is that it will pass through the southern tip of the keys, enter the gulf and cut back in on Florida near Tampa (Donna like?). Yet another has it cutting north quicker and involving Central Florida (David anyone?) and still another has it Moving into the gulf without having the eye go over the Keys. Another has it moving over Cuba into the gulf, and yet another has it south of cuba entering into the gulf. CFHC will go with the Hurricane Center and predict a Keys extreme southern Florida hit, which could change because of the interaction with Hispaniola. All of Florida (east and west coasts) Central to South florida should be watching this, and really most of the Southeast US should be keeping tabs on it. I'm not even going to attempt a guess at intensity of the storm.
My advice to NASA re: STS-95. Wait a bit until after it reemerges from Hispaniola to make a call on rollback. Folks in Southwest Florida should be aware of the curve around from the back possibility. Folks in the Keys should leave if asked to. If any of the bridges were to be knocked out it would delay resupply. Folks in Dade/Broward should pay attention and do what they think they should do. For us in Central Florida, I would be aware that the track could change and that we could get post-landfall winds coming from the south if the current NHC forecast verifies. Note: All this would happen Friday or Saturday. Those in Tampa should not write off the possibility that it could get into the gulf. Distributers for supplies and building materials should be aware of the spread of this system and be ready for a quick response.

Therefore, all of Florida, and indeed the Southeast still needs to watch this one carefully. Watches for southern Florida probably will go up tomorrow morning. Any of the scenarios could happen, which could include being between the "lines".

Also... Jeanne has been upgraded to a Hurricane and will likely become a fish-spinner. And an area in the western Gulf of Mexico may want to do something later this week. (I know folks in Houston, Texas in general, and Mexico don't want to hear that).

- [mac]

Georges moves into the Dominican Republic. Tourists asked to Leave Keys. All of Central to South Florida should get ready.
2PM EDT - 22 September 1998

Georges is moving into the Dominican Republic now after causing major damage in Peurto Rico.
Some areas in Puerto Rico received over 20 inches of rain, which is amazing.

The BIG question is what next? Hurricane Warnings are up for all of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba as well as the southeast Bahama islands. The Central Bahama islands are now under a watch, and southern Florida should see a Hurricane Watch late tonight or tomorrow.
Going by the NOGAPS model it would put the storm into Southern Florida as a cat 3 storm and moving it up through the state exiting again around Daytona Beach or Cape Canaveral.
That is why I mention all of Central-South Florida should start getting minor preperations done. In fact, in the Keys, tourists have been asked to leave because of the extremely long evacuation times in those areas due to the single evacuation route.
It is also very important to note that Georges will decrease in intensity while over Hispaniola, but without a doubt will regain strength after it makes it back on the open ocean.
And it is also very important to note that the track could err either direction (north or south) So even Central Florida is not out of the question for a direct hit, although less likely than South Florida/Keys.
And the chance also remains for it to pass through the Florida Straights and enter the Gulf which would give it more time to intensify before curving BACK across Florida.

I hope I don't have to say that you should be keeping an eye on this storm if you live in Florida. The north and out to sea scenario is extremely unlikely now.

- [mac]

Georges on Puerto Rico... Threat to Florida increasing.
Tropical Storm Jeanne forms.
6PM EDT - 21 September 1998

Mini Update (7pm): Click here for a Radar loop from Puerto Rico
Note Please see the Current Storm Spotlight for the latest info on Georges.
Also a special update from the Hurricane Center puts the winds back at 115MPH as winds have been reported over 100MPH in parts of Puerto Rico. Which makes Georges a Cat 3 again. It will probably weaken a bit more as it passes over the island...

Also click here for reports from folks in Puerto Rico.
Listen To NOAA weather radio out of San Juan, Puerto Rico. (Real Audio)

Hurricane Georges is now literally on Puerto Rico, or the eye is. Giving Puerto Rico its worst weather from the storm. We hope for the best for those in Puerto Rico and the islands. Watches now exist in Eastern Cuba and the SouthEastern Bahamas. Hurricane watches could be posted for Florida on Wednesday. Currently the most likely place on the US for a hit (Friday or Saturday) would be Miami south to Key West, with a slightly less chance for Central Florida. NOGAPS has the storm clipping Key West and entering the gulf and then cutting NorthEast into Central Florida from the west coast side exiting around Daytona. But these are based on probabilities that we have low confidence in. Therefore, no conclusions on landfall should be gathered, the point to mentioning these models and probabilities is that EVERYONE IN CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA MUST KEEP UP TO DATE ON THIS STORM. Point your cars toward the lumber and grocery stores, but don't go out quite yet. Unless you want to avoid a potential run on these stores.

Tropical Storm Ivan continues to the Northwest, away from any land.

Tropical Storm Jeanne has just formed. Extremely far east for a Tropical Storm, but we have plenty of time to watch this one as Georges is the major player right now.

some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source. Note that sites will be down/crowded due to people hunting info on this storm.

- [mac]

Hurricane Georges pounds NE Caribbean, and Tropical Storm Ivan
1PM EDT - 21 September 1998

Hurricane Georges has weakened to a borderline cat 2/3 storm and is basically at the Virgin islands now. The folks in Puerto Rico are preparing for a Category 3 storm.
The future track brings it on the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and into the Southeastern Bahamas. After this it becomes VERY tricky. It could go along Cuba into the Gulf, or it could turn north. Therefore People in Central Florida (and Florida in general) REALLY need to watch this one.

Tropical Storm Ivan is also spinning the fishes in the Eastern Atlantic and poses no threat to land areas. An area off the Coast of Africa has the potential to Become TD#10.

Georges is now in some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Georges, Hermine, TD#9, and downtime
Midnight EDT - 20 September 1998

We are now back. Yes we have suffered from downtime during the week and we have lost some info, however, the important things such as Storm Spotlight and Printer-Ready info are working. We will be fixing other things in time. That explained...

Category 4 Hurricane Georges is nearing the Caribbean and may have a chance of effecting Florida down the road. It has a very well defined eye and system. The folks in the NE Caribbean --Including Peurto Rico--are going to get slammed. God bless all there. If the storm moves just to the north of Hispaniola it will become a major threat to Florida. However, the current forecast track takes it into the Dominican Republic, which would allow it to get weakened by the mountains there. Long time Florida residents will remember Hurricane David, which did pass over Hispaniola. Storms this strong in the Atlantic are very rare, and even rarer is the fact that it has the chance to become a Category 5 storm tomorrow. Interesting links: http://www.best.com/~carib/hurr.htm has first hand accounts from Islanders. Everyone needs to keep an eye on this one.

Tropical Storm Hermine is pretty much over with and we will not discuss it. A disturbance in the eastern atlantic may form into TD#9 tomorrow and another east of that... TD#10 even??

Again sorry for the downtime. We got lots of email about it, and we worked as fast as possible to get it back up again. Thanks for the support!

- [mac]

Tropical Depression #7 forms in east Atlantic. TD8 in eastern Gulf??
5PM EDT - 16 September 1998

Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic and is moving toward the west fairly quickly. It will probably be the last Cape Verde storm for the season, but they aren't are only worry. We have time to watch TD7 and it is fairly far south so it probably will be worth watching as time goes on.

However, an area in the southeaster Gulf of Mexico could form into a depression by tonight or tomorrow, this one could cause more headaches (and indeed even rain for us here in Central Florida) later. Gulf storms are undeniably fickle. Tropical Storm Frances caused unbelievable flooding In Louisiana and Texas. And that was just a Tropical Storm. It is prudent to never underestimate these type of storms, no matter how strong or "weak" they are.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Frances Forms in Gulf.
5PM EDT - 9 September 1998

Tropical Storm Frances starting off like Earl but not moving very much. The center of this system is broad and poorly defined. Some strengthing is expected. Tropical storm warnings posted on most of the Texas Gulf Coast. We will continue to keep you updated on Frances.

- [jc]

Earl downgraded to Tropical Storm.
11AM EDT - 3 September 1998

It'll be a rain event with a few short lived weak tornadoes from now on.

- [mac]

Hurricane Earl makes Landfall near Panama City, FL.
9AM EDT - 3 September 1998

With storm surge and lots of wind and tornadoes, the very odd hybrid warm/cold core system "Neutercane?" has made landfall. It had enough features to be considered a hurricane, yet a lot more to make it seem more like a strong noreaster or cold core system. In any case it caused some flooding problems and wind damage up on the panhandle, not to mention several tornadoes here in central florida (most notably on Cape Canveral).

Even now, the last of the rainbands is moving through Central Florida and may cause some rough weather here. Because of this "warning mode" will remain until it passes.

Storm surges up to 10 feet were reported in the panhandle. Tropical Storm Isis in the pacific is moving between Baja California and mainland Mexico and may cause trouble in the Southwest. Hurricane Danielle still exists and is causing trouble for salvage efforts for the Swissair crash.

Elsewhere there is a minor wave in the eastern carribbean that only has a slight chance of developing.

Once again, some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source. NOTE: Due to the rush of people looking for the latest information on Bonnie these and other sites may be really slow or down temporarily. Just keep trying!

- [mac]

Hurricane Earl forms in Gulf. The year of the fickle storm continues. Hurricane Warnings up from Pascagoula, Mississippi to the mouth of the Suwannee River in FL. And Tropical Storm Warning are in Effect south of that to the Anclote Keys.
11AM EDT - 2 September 1998

Yet another very fickle storm forms. Earl in the gulf is forming and reforming in different spots making it very difficult to track, and very difficult to predict intensity. This is another one of those weird ones. Earlier yesterday the NHC brought up the New Orleans Scenario (the most disturbing), but now has shifted the track to the east, including those areas in Florida that got hit by Opal and Erin in 1995, and Danny last year in Alabama. This track seems very uncertain so people along the gulf coast should REALLY keep a close watch on this as it could really strike anywhere in the eastern half of the gulf coast. Listen to watches and warnings and local media. Coastal residents must be ready to move to higher ground immediately. There is a good chance this could effect central Florida too, so we have entered in to warning mode.

Folks in Florda can call 1-800-342-3557 (Florida Information Line) for information about evacuations and road closures.

Florida Local National Weather Service Statements.

- [mac]

Danielle moving out to sea. Tropical Storm Earl forms in Gulf.
6PM EDT - 31 August 1998

Bonnie no longer in the picture, Danielle heading out into the atlantic, and Earl forms in the gulf without even a tropical depression 5 issued and sneeks in the backdoor. Earl looks like it may form into a hurricane before it hits the northeast gulf coast. We will keep you informed on this one. Check back soon for more news.

- [jc]

Bonnie Downgraded Again. Danielle to miss US coast.
10AM EDT - 29 August 1998

Finally Bonnie is leaving us, all tropical storm warnings and watches have been dropped and it will be taking off to the north atlantic soon. Bonnie was a very fickle cane when it came to timing.

Hurricane Danielle is forecast to turn away from the US coast fairly soon and shouldn't be a threat to anyone on the mainland. You can't totally ignore it, but all of the forecasting models take it away from the coastline.

The area in the Westward Caribbean may or may not do something. Currently it looks fairly ragged in that area. So anything forming would be a while. Meanwhile... In the Eastern Atlantic another tropical wave is brewing.

- [mac]

Bonnie Hurricane Again!
11PM EDT - 27 August 1998

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Bonnie back to Hurricane status, with 75MPH Winds. Tropical Storm Warnings remain as is, however, because the stronger winds are located over the ocean to the southeast. This Tropical Storm watches exist up through Plymouth, Massachusetts.
This strengthening may be short lived as Bonnie still moves slowly north northeast slowly.

Danielle still looks like it will miss the US coast entirely. But that is still uncertain. In the Carribean a mass of clouds has gathered but nothing seems to be organized at the moment.
Accuweather Radar Image from Wilmington, North Carolina.

- [mac]

Bonnie Downgraded
2PM EDT - 27 August 1998

Bonnie has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as she moves slowly over the eastern part of North Carolina. Some places have had evacuations lifted and some areas were hit harder than others.

Damage reports are still not totally in.

Hurricane Danielle still moves WNW and we are watching it.
Accuweather Radar Image from Wilmington, North Carolina.

- [jc]

Hurricane Bonnie
Tuesday, August 26 1998
Bonnie makes landfall and shifts to Park.
10PM EDT - 26 August 1998

Floods in North Carolina will result from a stalled out Hurricane Bonnie. It's windspeed will gradually decrease, but not as fast as it could since half of the eye is still over the water. Eastern NC and Virginia will be facing some BIG BIG BIG floods until Bonnie moves out.
Being a former resident in Raleigh, NC, I cannot remember a time when something like this has happened in North Carolina. Although the storm probably wasn't as damaging with winds as Fran, the claim to fame for this system will probably be the length that it stays. If you look at an animated satellite picture, you can see NO movement since the eye made landfall.
Therefore, If any friends from NC are reading this let it be known that we are praying for you.

In the rush of Bonnie information we have forgotten to mention the effects of Tropical Storm Charley, which has been a killer flooding system. Bonnie has the same, if not worse, potential in NC and VA. Let's hope both systems move out quickly.

As for Danielle, the hurricane has weakened temporarily down to 85MPH winds. As for her future track, Bonnie may actually help turn her to the north by sitting still. Although it's really to early to tell. If you look at the 12Z run from 8-26 of the NOGAPS model (Click here choose NGP and then the JAVA animation of the 500mb level forecast.) actually has Danielle into the NC coast at the extreme forecast future. It's important to note that at this far out in time the model is really just guessing at Tropical Storms. But even the thought of that happening is quite disturbing. Chances are that won't happen, BTW.

Good luck to the folks in NC. It's not going to be over until Friday or so.
Accuweather Radar Image from Wilmington, North Carolina.

- [mac]

Hurricane Bonnie Approaches Landfall...
Hurricane Danielle strengthens yet again.
10AM EDT - 26 August 1998

Hurricane Bonnie is approaching Wilmington, and is expected to landfall just south of Wilmington. Most preperations have been made and all they can do now is wait for it to come later. It's still south of the coast about 100 miles. However, with a quick look at radar we now see it moving due north. Keeping this track, it would make landfall in Wilmington.

Hurricane Danielle has strengthened to a 100MPH hurricane still moving west northwest. It will most likely just miss the leeward islands, but after that all bets are off.
A third system near the island of Hispaniola which has the chance to become a depression as it moves off the island.

Accuweather Radar Image from Wilmington, North Carolina.

- [mac]

Hurricane Warning extended Southward. Bonnie moves slightly more to the west. General Heading NNW @ 16MPH.
Hurricane Danielle strengthens even more.
5PM EDT - 25 August 1998

Warnings from Cape Romain, South Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia.
This places landfall still near the area of the earlier forecasted track. However, since this is a larger than average hurricane, people will feel the effects of the storm some distance from the center. The absolute worst part will be to the immediate east of wherever it makes landfall tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Danielle strengthens even more to an 85MPH Hurricane and continues to move west northwest toward the lesser antilles.

- [mac]

Eye reforming as Hurricane Warnings are extended north to Chincoteague, Virginia.
2PM EDT - 25 August 1998

Bonnie continues northward to the North Carolina Outer Banks. The current thinking is for the storm to cross over the Outer Banks up toward the Virginia coast then move off land again out to sea.

An eye appears to be reforming now so there is the potential for the storm to strengthen before landfall tomorrow morning.

- [mac]

Mandatory Evacuations up along North Carolina Coast. Hurricane Bonnie has sped up to a forward speed of 16MPH. Places landfall tomorrow morning.
Also... 80MPH Hurricane Danielle Forms in Central Atlantic.
11AM EDT - 25 August 1998

Hurricane Bonnie has sped up to 16MPH to the North Northwest... aiming for the coast of North Carolina. Forward speed has increased, not windspeed which means the preperation time for the coast of the Carolinas has shrunk by 40%.
People in these areas need to get prepared right now. If you are in the area and you are reading this, stop and prepare. Use radio and Television--not the internet--for future info. If you are on a barrier island on the NC coast, leave ASAP before the rush of traffic occurs. People who experienced the center of Fran should already know this.

That isn't the only thing going on either. Danielle has strengthened quite rapidly, and is now an 80MPH hurricane. The ridging to the north of it suggests a westward motion, and we could again be going through alerts later this week and into next week. However, this storm is much more tight or smaller, so it has the potential to become very powerful quickly. The good side to this is that it will effect a smaller area. But any area that does get see this storm will have extreme damage. We will keep an eye out on this as this has a chance to head toward the US coast around the weekend or next week.

A system in the eastern Caribbean also has the chance to become a depression in the next day or so.

- [mac]

Bonnie Makes the move... Hurricane Warnings from Murrels Inlet South Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia State Line. Watches From VA/NC line to Cape Henlopen, DE and also Savannah, GA to Murrels Inlet, SC. Tropical Storm Danielle strengthens.
8AM EDT - 25 August 1998

Bonnie has made the move to the North-Northwest with a fair speed which finally rules out a hit in Florida. However, now the question is the actual point of landfall... if it occurs.
The storm is projected to make landfall around the NC/SC border (probably on the north side). However, it is possible for it to move just to the east of Cape Hatteras and then prove to be something for the folks in VA, MD, and Deleware to watch. The models still haven't come into agreement on this, as only the GDFL model has it missing the coast. Regardless, those in the Warning area should take it very serious, and those along the coast should evacuate. Mandatory evacuations have gone up already in a few areas in North Carolina. Check local media for more information.

Tropical Storm Danielle has gained strength this morning, and now has 50MPH winds. It continues to move to the West Northwest, and has a fair chance of going over the Northeastern Caribbean Islands. Although this could change. Danielle is a smaller system than Bonnie and has the potential to strengthen and weaken much more rapidly than Bonnie did, so this will have to be watched later in the week into next week as well.

- [mac]

Hurricane Watches up from Savannah Georgia to the North Carolina/Virginia State Line. Tropical Storm Danielle forms in Central Atlantic.
8PM EDT - 24 August 1998

Well Bonnie appears to finally be on a slow move. The future track is still up in the air, but the Hurricane Center has enough confidence now to put watches up from Savannah to the NC/VA state line.
Does this leave Florida in the all clear? Not quite yet... it is still south of us..., but it does lessen the chances a great deal.
What this does, however, is give those who experienced Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and Hurricane Fran in 1996 something to really prepare for. I know people in those areas look at this site, and I suggest anywhere within the watch zone should prepare to get out when and if the call comes. Keep up with the storm via local media and use the internet as only a secondary research method. Web sites related to Hurricanes will be failing and going down constantly (we are not immune either) as the storm edges closer to land, so have plenty of alternates.

Also... Tropical Storm Danielle formed from TD#4 in the Atlantic rather quickly today. It's forecast track takes it towards the west northwest. It will be dealt with after Bonnie.
A system in the eastern Carribean may form into another Tropical Depression in a few days.

Check out the current storm spotlight also.

- [mac]

Tropical Depression Four Forms in Central Atlantic. Bonnie still moving very little.
12 Noon EDT - 24 August 1998

Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the Central Atlantic and its future is not as urgent of a concern as Bonnie, so until Bonnie makes her move we will not focus on it. In fact we will create a seperate Spotlight page for TD4 Until Bonnie is done with.

Speaking of Bonnie, it still is not moving much. It still has the best chance to hit SC/NC and it still is South of us and we still cannot let our guard down.

Once again, some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Check out the current storm spotlight also.

- [mac]

All we can do...
10AM EDT - 24 August 1998

...is wait and see.

Hurricane Bonnie has gone up in pressure this morning sligtly and may be a bit weaker than yesterday. Most likely because the storm hasn't moved and is upwelling slightly cooler water to the surface. The forecast track is even more scattered than before. To give an example of this, the AVN Model [Java Animation] has the storm staying off the US coast entirely, while the Navy NOGAPS model [Java Animation] has it heading toward the coast of Georgia in 72 hours. (Main Model Page) The initial position and motion estimates have a great deal to do with the model forecasts, and since Bonnie is moving very little the errors could be quite large in any direction. The coastal Carolinas is the most likely spot for landfall, but since the storm is STILL south of Florida it is impossible for me to even think about an all clear of Florida until the storm establishes a definite movement somewhere.

This means the waiting game continues. The surf at the beach where I am at is up quite a bit today and will remain dangerous over the next couple of days.

A Tropical Wave in the eastern Carribean has the potential to cause trouble down the road in the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. And A wave in the Central Atlantic also has a chance of becoming a depression within a day or two.

The expected rush of folks to internet sites has occured and resources are getting spread thinner. The NHC's web page is either down or they have disable its use to only Government and university access. It may pop on here and there, but for the most part info directly from the Hurricane Center's web page will not be reliable. The storm Spotlight provides alternate links to the hurricane advisories that you may wind up using because of the number of people trying to get the same information you are seeking. This has happened in the past, so we tried to prepare for it. Some things are still breaking down, however :(.

Once again, some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Check out the current storm spotlight also.

- [mac]

"My Bonnie Stalls over the Ocean..."
3PM EDT - 23 August 1998

Talk about a nerve racking forecast. Bonnie has been stubborn with her track and refuses to move much at all. This still puts all of the East coast of the US at risk--including South and Central Florida. Even though the Hurricane Center still goes with a more northward track there is obviously much more uncertainty about it today than there was yesterday. Not only that... It is a Major Category Three storm (3 out of 5) and can do some serious damage to wherever it hits.

It has moved very very little since last night. And because of this stall it gives time for the surrounding enviroment.

I really can't say much more than keep an eye on this storm. I am not ruling out a strike on Florida, nor Georgia, SC or NC. This one could cause a panic in the area it'll eventually get to at the last moment, and I fear that more than the storm currently.

The disturbance in the Central Atlantic is being impeded by Bonnie, and will remain relatively weak until Bonnie makes her move.

If anyone finds this site useful or would like certain things changed or improved PLEASE let us know. This is the time to do it. Either use the feedback form, the guestbook or the Storm Forum. We check them all. A few of you have made some great suggestions that we have put in place and we thank you for it. Especially those in the Emergency Management offices, KSC, and Patrick AFB!

Once again, some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Check out the current storm spotlight also.

- [mac]

More on Hurricane Bonnie. Charley Inland. Off lists
11AM EDT - 22 August 1998

Charley was downgraded to a depression and removed from our pages. It was mostly a rain even for Texas.
Bonnie is now an 85MPH Hurricane. I suspect she'll become a category two hurricane before the day is over. An Eye is now visible on her.
Cautious optimisim exists with her future track. It may miss the coast entirely, assuming that it starts its turn to the north as expected. So, I still wouldn't let my guard down.

TD#4 will probably officially form later today in the Central Atlantic.

- [mac]

Hurricane Bonnie. What will she do.
10AM EDT - 22 August 1998

First off, Tropical Storm Charley has been inundating the Texas coast tonight with brisk winds and a lot of rain, while Bonnie has been upgraded to a hurricane.

The question is where will Bonnie go?
This is similar to the Bertha situation for Central Florida. A turn to the north is expected, but not guaranteed. By the time the storm gets nearby us it will be a major hurricane. And currently it probably will miss us... Close call though. The folks in NC and possibly New England also have to watch this storm.

Unfortunately, this morning, things haven't changed much. We still have a fair chance of this storm approaching close, and also a fair chance of it turning north before it can effect us. The different weather prediction models tend to differ on this.

All I can say, once again, is keep an eye out on this storm until the all clear is sounded by the NHC!

Also a tropical wave out in the Central Atlantic has a very good chance of becoming Tropical Depression #4 today. And also our web server is acting oddly and reverting to older versions of certain pages occasionally. We will try to minimize this.

Once again, some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Charley forms. Bonnie a possible threat to the east US Coast.
5PM EDT - 21 August 1998

Tropical Storm Charley has formed in the gulf of Mexico and threatens to strengthen a little more before hitting the Coast of Texas. (Which has Tropical Storm Warnings up BTW). It should move in around daybreak tomorrow there.

As for Bonnie. The latest updates from the National Hurricane Center give no more or less certainty for us. It still looks like a threat to somewhere on the east US coast. It is very possible we could see watches in the east central Florida area Late Sunday or Monday if this system does not turn to the north... Even if it misses us it may come close enough to warrant such watches. Again... Please keep up with this storm.
72 Hour Forecast have Bonnie's winds at approx 100Knots (115 MPH) which is a category 3 storm. This may be like the Bertha situation several years ago. But the uncertainty is at a higher level currently. Let's hope it does turn north.

Note: We have entered streamlining mode... Meaning less graphics (no twirling radar image, and no music) to allow more people quicker access. The load of people checking on this storm has become apparent, and will only increase in the next few days. BOOKMARK THE ALTERNATE SITE. It's there because of lessons learned during the Bertha situation. Note: The Hurricane Center will start limiting access to their site (To educational and government types) when the load becomes extreme. Buy batteries and other hurricane supplies NOW. If you wait until Late Sat or Sunday you will be fighting crowds.

Once again, some nice satellite views (which can be java animated) of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TD#3 forms... Is TS Bonnie a threat?
3PM EDT - 21 August 1998

Tropical Depression 3 formed today in the Gulf of Mexico... It is heading westward toward Texas. It has the potential to reach the Texas coast as a minimal Tropical Storm. It would be Charley if that were to happen.

Bonnie still will turn north. When it does, however, is up in the air. Currently it has a chance to actually hit Florida, or anywhere in the Southeast US for that matter. TS Warnings are up for the SE Bahamas and a hurricane watch is up for the same area. This storm just from a "keep an eye on" to REALLY keep an eye on it. The latter half of this weekend should give us a better idea what will happen. Personally, right now I feel that it will probably hit somewhere on the east coast if the trough does not catch it by Early Monday. Somwhere between Florida and Maine. Keep up with this storm DAILY.

- [mac]f

Bonnie blooms NE of Peurto Rico
8PM EDT - 20 August 1998

Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed northeast of Puerto Rico with 50MPH Winds heading quickly to the West Northwest at 25MPH. Watches and Warnings are up for the northern leeward islands. Including the US Virgin Islands and a watch for Peurto Rico. Future track still leans toward recurving to the north after 48 hours or so, however there is still a fair to good chance that it will not recurve that early. Therefore we shall be watching it closely over the next several days.
It probably will turn into a Hurricane later tomorrow.

There is a persistant wave in the Gulf of Mexico that also may form into a depression, and yet another wave east of Bonnie that may strengthen to a depression in a day or two.

- [mac]

Tropical Depression #2 forms
5PM EDT - 19 August 1998

The second Tropical Depression of the year has formed in the Central Atlantic.
It is possible for it to effect the northern leeward islands. However it may miss and turn slightly nortward. The most likely scenario is for this storm to strengthen and then turn out to sea. However, tropical cyclones can be fickle things, so anything can happen.
Watch it closely!

- [mac]

Whoa! Lull in Tropical activity goes out with several bangs!
12PM EDT - 18 August 1998

When it rains, it pours... After a lack of activity in August up to this point we have seen an abrupt turnaround just this morning. There are four disturbances being watches, three of those have a good chance of becoming a depression. One is in the gulf. Conditions are favorible for development. Therefore, I hope that are gulf states take a close watch at this one as it may develop rapidly. It is also important to note that it isn't a depression yet and I'm not going to speculate where it will go and how strong it will get. Currently it's drifting slowly to the west.

Also... north of Puerto Rico there is a disturbance that lacks a defined circulation presently that could form soon. Pressures have been falling and the storm is moving west. Too early to say more on this. A recon plane may be sent out tomorrow if this one persists.

Also... In the central Atlantic a large circulation continues to slowly strengthen. It still has a while to go before the storm may form into a depression. It currently is heading toward the west.

Finally, the least likely place of development is near the Bahamas and Florida straits. This area should be watched, but chances are this won't do much.

- [mac]

Slow first part of August starts to heat up.
9AM EDT - 11 August 1998

After Alex the tropics have quieted down quite a bit. However, now there are two areas worth watching. One Southeast of the Lesser Antilles (really pretty far south for development) which is a wave that seems to want to get stronger regardless of its low latitude. And another off the coast of Africa which has not really strengthened at all recently, but may have a chance in a few days.
The prevailing opinion seems that the second half of August will tend to be much more active than what we have seen so far. To date August has really been a dog. But time will tell with these storms and possibly a few others.

- [mac]

Tropical Storm Alex Dissapates
5PM EDT - 2 August 1998

We have seen the last of Alex. Windshear from the south has destroyed the circulation that did exist.
Thusly, the storm spotlight has been removed. Other areas in the tropics are being watch, but nothing is imminent.
For the last bit of data and a list of coordinates for Alex click this link<.

- [jc]

Tropical Storm Alex Forms
7AM EDT - 29 July 1998

As expected, Tropical Depression One is upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex. Experts believe Alex may be encountering some wind shear to prevent any short term straightening. We will continue to keep a watchful eye on this system and keep you updated.

- [jc]

First Depression of the 1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forms
8PM EDT - 27 July 1998

Hmm... Let your guard down for a minute and something happens. Always when you are away or are lacking computer access to update the page. Almost guaranteed to happen. And it did. This year we finally have our first depression of the season and it looks like it will make it to at least Tropical Storm (Alex) status soon. It is currently located in the far eastern atlantic off the coast of Africa heading towards the west (with a very slight northward component) and probably will miss the U.S. entirely. However, that's just going by current trends.. which could change. Current Storm Spotlight has been updated and we have added several new things to the printer ready info page. Keep watching this system. It'll be watchable for a while it looks like. With no threat to land for the forseeable future. We will update for sure if anything changes.

- [mac]

Beginnings of Cape Verde season approaching
12 Midnight - 20 July 1998

A quick note about lack of updates recently. Especially regarding some of the storms that seemed as if they had a chance. There was little hope for any of the two systems that earlier last week (Carribbean wave and the central Atlanitc wave) were discussed in the NHC outlooks.
Right now there is NOTHING going on and nothing in the immediate future that looks like it could become something to really watch. However, the Cape Verde season may be starting to gear up. A few more weeks and it could really get cranking. I believe we will see a relatively active Cape Verde season in August-September. This is the "hope" for this hurricane season. The prevailing winds in the area are becoming more favorible over time and the season could get going sooner rather than later in this area.

Keep Watching.

- [jc]

July Proceeding
8AM - 11 July 1998

Compared to the last few years having early storms it may seem a little slow so far. However, actually this type of slowness during the early season is more the norm. August into Mid September is the peak of hurricane season, and we still have more than half a month of July to go. I'm not going to make any "predictions" about the rest of this month, although I think we are safe for another week. (Of course the moment I upload this I'll notice something new that 'may' form)

Right now there is nothing going on to speak of in the Atlantic Basin.

On another note, the fires that threatened populated areas are over finally, and roads are back open. Florida is back open, so to speak.

Central Florida Fire Chasers???
9PM - 3 July 1998

Well the big story locally has been the fires lately from Brevard up to Flagler counties. Info on the fires can be found at the following web sites Inside Central Florida, Volusia County EM Fire News, Wesh Channel 2
The fires have affected us all in East Central Floida And is a current disaster unlike any hurricane could be. However, Central Florida does need the rain that a good tropical system (Not a bad one) could provide. Currently the only chance of that happening anytime soon is the system in the eastern carribean.
This system should be watched over into next week. Pray that it will stay relatively weak and turn towards Florida.
Florida DOES NOT need a Major Hurricane hitting, especially after this current situation.

- [mac]

Hmm... Have we seen this before?
11PM - 30 June 1998

Tonight yet another tropical disturbance hangs out where the last two "almost TDs" have been hanging out. The easiest thing to do is become jaded and say that nothing will happen. However, again, we cannot count this out from developing later in the week. The system currently is just east of the Yucatan peninsula and has some decent convection associated with it. Time will tell again. This is something for the trackers to keep track of, and hopefully this won't become something and put a damper on the July 4th weekend. Best guess currently is that it will almost make it to a TD and then die out, but this is going on the short term history re the older storms. Weather changes rapidly so it is not a good idea to rule these storms out.

Once again, some nice satellite views of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Depression 1 Not Forming?
9 AM - 26 June 1998

Well it's chance to develop is lower now. It just didn't organize itself. It still has a slight chance, but my original statement about nothing forming in June may hold. Still worth checking on every now and then, but not something imminent.

- [mac]

Depression 1 Forming?
12 Noon - 25 June 1998

See the area in the Gulf? Will it develop? Seems possible. Hurricane hunter aircraft are on the way to check this out at the moment. We're watching it also. Upper level winds are extreamly favorable, but still it definately has a good chance of becoming the first depression of the season. Where will it go? Lousiana to Texas is the best guess. How strong? Maybe a weak TS if that, anything more than that would definately surprise me.

More info to come. Current Storm page has been activated, and Printer ready selections for Current Storms have been activated. Info will be blank until the NHC starts issuing advisories. If this does not become a TD, it will be removed later.

Some nice satellite views of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

Ante Up... Waves Converge. Blahs and Blas. and will that thing there give us some rain?
10 AM - 24 June 1998

Ok I'd bet more than a penny something may develop in the Atlantic in June. What has changed my mind? I've been holding back updating until now because it truly did seem my last update would hold, until this morning. Those two waves mentioned below merged into one larger wave. Although this big wave still isn't the perfect example of organization, the surrounding currents are becoming more favorable for that to happen. It has been persistant and there is a mid-level trough forming (nearly the type of high a storm needs to develop). Conditions are now sliding from not good to middle ground, and possibly to good later on. Still (standard dose of tropical disclaimer^tm) nothing may develop, however, that is becoming the less likely scenario now. More in a bit.

Blas! She's a big hurricane, a big major hurricane, in the Eastern Pacific. Like most of the storms there it will churn away into nothingness as it moves into colder waters (Blah for trackers for being in the Pacific, but no Blah for Mexico-- more like a cheer). But, still, it does look impressive.

I'm from New Smyrna Beach and I commute over to Orlando during the week. Let me say, we need rain, I am sick of smoke, I'm sick of making long detours to get where I'm going, and I'm sick of seeing people's lives destroyed by fire. I'm sure everyone is had enough fires for many years. I for one would love to have that nice tropical sponge wringing out (controlled-style) over us. Will it happen with that storm (in whatever form it decides to take)? Will it come this way? Probably not. Is there a chance? Of course--it's tropical and tropical systems are notorious for having "there own mind" sometimes. Do I think it will happen? Unfortunately no. The Panhandle has the best chance of seeing some rain in Florida, but further west along the coast (Louisiana or Texas for example) has the much better shot. Even having it move into Mexico seems more likely than anything else. The storm in the short term should move toward the Gulf of Honduras which could mean most anything. Lets just hope it doesn't develop into a major storm and slam into somewhere. The chances of that happening, though, are again pretty low.

- [mac]

Wave Hello, then Goodbye
8AM - 21 June 1998

We are underway to have the first June in 3 years that has not had even a depression form in the Atlantic. This is actually more normal than to have a storm develop. In past few years these have formed off the coast of Florida as weak Tropical Storms and then dying out at sea. (which is somewhat unusual by climatology) This year nothing seems to be forming in June. It's nearly the end of the month and it does not seem that we will see one before then. (Note: this doesn't rule out the possibiltiy that one make break ranks and actually form before July 1st, but I would not bet a penny on one forming before then).

That said we have seen several Tropical Waves approach the Lesser Antillies Islands in the Eastern Carribean only to be sheared away by strong upper level winds. This is normal for this time of year to have the high upper winds, however these will subside as time progresses into July and August. An active mid-late season is still very possible. If these waves continue to say hello to those islands and one does not go "goodbye" we could have a storm or depression form. But not now. This morning something flared up in the west Carribean. Don't even think for a second we will see much out of that. See the late May disturbance info below to see my opinion on it. Some nice satellite views of this can be found at [N.A. visible] (visible) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

- [mac]

TS Agatha in East Pacific - Atlantic Quiet
11AM - 13 June 1998

Well the first Tropical Storm in the Eastern Pacific ocean has formed, Tropical Storm Agatha with max sustained winds of 45MPH. This storm will die out quickly as it heads toward colder waters not threatening any land. For more info click http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index_special.html#PACIFIC on the link.

The Atlantic, however, remains quiet as a strong high dominates over the gulf. And since climatologically speaking, the gulf and northwest Carribean has the highest chance of development in June it doesn't bode well. Although high pressure aloft is normally a positive factor in hurricane development, when the high reaches the surface as well, it really quelches any cloud development. Thus the lack of rain and extreme heat we've been feeling in Florida recently. Which caused the brush fire situation to be worsened greatly with loss of quite a few homes. If this pattern persists for a while, we won't see much rain here in Central Florida. Although recently the chance of rain has gone up.

Dr. Gray's Strike strike area predictions, mentioned in the last update, won't be available until the 20th.

- [mac]

Dr. William Gray's June 5 Prediction Updates
8PM - 5 June 1998

No change for number of storms, number of intense hurricanes and number of hurricanes. However the number of hurricane days went up from 20 to 25. Go ahead and read all the info at http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/.

Dr. Gray will give strike chances for hurricanes in a week or so, something he hasn't done before. When that comes out we will let you know.

Otherwise, nothing worth talking about yet.

- [mac]

The Odds Are... ???
10PM - 4 June 1998

Dr. William Gray and his team will release his new predictions for the season tomorrow. What they will do with it is uncertain at the moment.

There is development occuring the the East Pacific, south of the guld of Tehuantepec There is nothing going on in the Atlantic right now. We will update the page with new info tomorrow when Dr. Gray releases his new forecast.

On the other hand Gary Gray (No relation to Dr. Gray as far as we can tell) has released "strike area potentials" on his site on Millennium Weather The main Millennium weather link is http://www2.smart.net/~gdmgeg/. If you would like to see his strike area potentials directly, click this link instead http://www2.smart.net/~gdmgeg/season.html. Based on analog comparisons to previous seasons he grades different coastal areas as to strike potential. Florida gets a Low-Moderate Risk, while the North Gulf Coast (LA, MS, AL) gets a moderate-high risk. I would call this a very guessy science, but it is somewhat of an educated guess. If this interests you at all PLEASE read Gary's description at the above link before making any insurance decisions or otherwise, he himself declares it to be mostly guesswork and not much to base anything on other than food for thought.

- [mac]

1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season has Begun
10AM EDT - 1 June 1998

It's official now, Hurricane season has begun. The current outlook lists nothing going on right now which will probably be the case until the end of July into August. I really don't expect to see much in the way of early storms. We will keep an eye out and whenever the hurricane center issues advisories we will start talking quite a bit. If you haven't gotten the early preperations done you should do it fairly soon.

When a storm starts to get near stuff like batteries and plywood start disappearing. (You don't want to buy mega-expensive plywood (BC, or better grade) for a storm - 1/2" 3 or 4 ply CDX plywood is probably the best choice. Less so 3/8" and anything above 7/16" or 1/2" is probably a waste of money) Current prices range from $10-$13 a sheet for the types (1/2" CDX) I recommended. Pressure treated plywood is not necessary. How you actually put the plywood up depends on the makeup of the buildings. Storm shutters are definitely the best choice for high-rises along the coast. Placing plywood on windows there on higher floors is nearly impossible within the time of a storm alert. The higher-up you are the stronger the winds will be, lower floors will be in danger of flooding. Most high-rise buildings *should* survive all but the most extreme storms.. (in respect to high-rise buildings)

Batteries for radios and flashlights also dry up quick during storm alerts and you should have a few stored around. TV cable tends to go out easily. Having a tv with rabbit ears as an option somewhere could be useful.

Water is often overlooked. Bottled water seems to go quick also, but filling your tub or filling empty bottles with water help. Sticking a few gallon milk jugs filled with water into a freezer may keep your frozen food cold for a bit more time if the power goes out. (and keep cooler water) Especially if you lose water pressure having a few frozen milk jugs will allow you to have cool water the first day of recovery (you will need it). Also, your hot water heater release valve is a source of gallons of water that also could be used in an emergency. If you try to cook with propane grills after a storm be very careful. Many gas companies will shut off service as a precaution during events like this so don't rely on that either. If your power goes out you are probably not alone. Generators are a nice luxury to have around, but avoid hooking them up to your main-line (it's possible to send power out into the lines which could cause harm to people repairing, or making downed power lines live). Also the noise that the generators make can be unnerving if many people are using them so be considerate of others. Don't run generators indoors or in a closed garage due to carbon monoxide.

Gas up when you see a storm being tracked that has a chance of coming near you. When watches get placed up... lines at gas stations form. People who wait too long to prepare also tend to get ugly before a storm, so watch out for bad drivers during watches. If an evacuation order goes up (voluntary or not) it is a good idea to head inland a bit. Central Florida has the unique distinction to have only a few east-west roads, and if a big storm hits south florida all the roads northbound become clogged. The best thing to do is go inland to family or friends. If that isn't an option you can "Try" to get a hotel, but if a large storm is coming you may need ungodly luck to get a room. Don't wait too late to do those options. Being stuck in a car during a major hurricane is not something I would wish on my worst enemy. There is the option of shelters as a last case, and don't even think about staying around. If you wind up stuck on the coast try to gain access to a high-rise and stay around on the mid-level floors. Otherwise just hunker down, watch out for flooding, and pray.

Tracking maps are beginning to be available at various "big-box" stores and a few smaller chain stores, pick those up if you can.

Above all, use good judgement. Get info from official sources and if you have time come to sites like this one to gain insight and opinions from others.

- [mac]

Caribbean Teased
10PM EDT - 26 May 1998

Well as expected the disturbance talked about yesterday didn't wind up being much other than a rain producer for our area. Which we could really use. At the very least it was an exercise in describing the area. I'd almost expect a few more teasers until something actually forms. The conditions aren't truly all that great anymore for anything to form at the moment. This disturbance was enough for the hurricane center to issue a special statement saying not to worry about it, which is somewhat unusual. However, it's probably a good thing since proper outlooks don't start showing up until June 1st. If that was later into the season we could have had something to really worry about.

Also remember that this is not an official page, don't rely on this page during hurricane season. Only use it to suppliment knowledge gained from official sources. By the nature of the internet some of the "live" links and info sources on this page could be outdated. (Although we try to monitor the site for problems such as that). The comments on this page in particular are informal. An opinion and nothing more. Take it with a grain of salt and so on...

- [mac]

Caribbean Teaser
12 Noon EDT - 25 May 1998

Something worth watching in the Caribbean already? Yes it may be true. However, since this area of disturbed weather has a slight chance of doing something it was worth an update. I personally don't think it will do much, but since it has a chance of becoming something it bears mention. It is pre-season and the odds are against it, but the area has shown persistance as of late so it tends to "tease" us trackers. I really can't say much more about it than to just keep a slight watch on it, however I wouldn't place any bets on formation into a depression yet.

If you would like a good view of this (with animation) click here.

This comes on the day we introduce our new printer-ready do-it-yourself page which allows you to pick and choose from a list of information and present it on a page by itself that you can then print out easily (or just read on screen). You can create a page by using check marks or by inputting a coded url (Which is explained on the setup page). To check this out go ahead and click here. Also I moved older stuff to the archives.

Time to get Ready
11AM EDT - 20 May 1998

Ack! The Weather Channel has lost its ability to show radar and satellite pictures due to the Galaxy 4 satellite (G4/K4) failing. This includes a lot of local TV stations ability to get those images as well. I can only imagine the grief of hurricane trackers like myself if this happened whilest a hurricane was active in the Atlantic.

Early storms have formed off the coast of the carolinas in the past two years, and recently an early may depression threatened to form, however the winds kept that from happening. But it was fairly close to becoming a pre-season depression. It really had no chance, but it came close. Will there be an early season storm in that area this year? Who knows. We'll keep watching.

Where can you find other people interested in hurricanes on-line? Probably the most active group I've seen resides on America Online in the Hurricane topic in the weather message board. (Keyword Weather... then click on message board). This is a great information source and is the sole reason I keep my AOL account alive (bring your own access plan of course). Although AOL's official data is pretty bland the experts and general "weather fans" that use the hurricane board more than make up for it. It's one place I always check before writing here. I won't name specific names of people on that board, but I can assure you some of them can help your insight into these storms greatly. If you are interested in Hurricanes and have access to AOL then do yourself a favor and check that place out.

As a reminder if you have trouble accessing the site try: http://www.digiweb.com/~jrc1/tropics and finally http://www.digital.net/~jrc1/tropics. That is a "backup" location that we hope to have in case of a massive slow-down due to a large storm approaching. (We learned from Bertha)

- [mac]

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
10AM EDT -15 May 1998

Today is the first day of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. These storms tend to from off the west and southwest coasts of Mexico and head west and die out in open colder water. However, sometimes they will venture back east and cause trouble for Mexico or for the island off the coast of Mexico.

Last year, for example, was an extremely active year with record-breaking strong storms for the Eastern Pacific. This caused a great deal of trouble and even had the chance of hitting California as a tropical storm (chances are very low that this could happen). A few of the islands off Mexico got hit with super category 5 storms (180mph winds). Occasionally storms in the Eastern Pacific make it to Hawaii and cause trouble there (such as Hurricane Iniki). Even rarer are instances when a storm makes it to California (which almost happened last year) still with Tropical Storm status, and when Eastern Pacific storms cross Central America and reform in the Atlantic-- if this does occur they do get renamed to the Atlantic list. That came close to happening last year also.

1997 was an amazing year for Eastern Pacific Storms which brings up another point. There seems to be an inverse relationship regarding the numbers eastern Pacific and Atlantic storms. Whenever the East Pacific is active, the Atlantic seems to be slow, and, such as in 1995, when the Atlantic is extremely active the Pacific tends to be slower. The Eastern Pacific season also starts 15 days before the Atlantic season. El Niño also seems to play a part in this, but the degree of its role in hurricane seasons is somewhat debatable. The CFHC page normally focuses only on Atlantic storms, but if you are interested in seeing the latest Pacific outlook (which started today) check out this link.

- [mac]

New Update
8AM EDT - 9 May 1998
Nothing really new to report, except that Pacific Hurricane season starts in 6 days. Remember, this is site strictly deals with Atlantic storms, so don't expect to see much of anything regarding East Pacific storms.. unless they threaten Hawaii. Also, Jerry Jerrell has been named as head of the National Hurricane Center after being acting head since Burpee retired due to health problems. Jerry has a few new ideas that may improve net access to hurricane information which would be widely appreciated and used.
Also, the Data Center is currently outdated and will be changed in the coming weeks.

- [mac]

Is El Niño weakening?
1PM EDT - 24 April 1998

A big maybe is the answer. It isn't quite dying as quickly as we thought before.
All this means is probably a very slow early hurricane season.
It's still on a slow decline, so by the time the peak of hurricane season arrives, El Niño should have a minimal effect.

- [mac]

Atlantic Water Temps
9AM EDT - 15 April 1998

We are shooting for weekly updates until the start of hurricane season on various bits of info. If something rare should happen and a storm comes up before hurricane season that all may change. But don't count on that happening.

Conventional Wisdom has the coming season to be a little more active than last year's because of the decay of the El Niño ENSO. However the fact that there really weren't any arctic intrusions into the Atlantic waters off the southeast and in the gulf this year. So, water temps are already slightly above normal. Does this mean much? Hard to say, but it definately isn't a negative factor for this season.

Also of note is the list of names this year. Last time this list was used the first storm name was not Alex, it was Andrew. The Hurricane center recycles name lists every 6 years and only changes names when a storm is memorable enough to cause the name to be retired. Andrew definately qualified for retirement, so "Alex" took its place in the name list. Hopefully nothing like Andrew will occur this year.

Despite the "Unofficial Saffir-Simpson definition" from last week (that we didn't write, BTW) we really aren't the type to get in a car and make a bee-line to an approaching landfalling storm. I guess the proper name for this page should be East Central Florida Hurricane Trackers, but the current name will stay.

Also, I added and corrected a few links on the links page.

- [mac]

Recent Rash of Tornadoes and a Discussion about Storm Warnings
1PM EDT - 10 April 1998

There seems to be a higher than usual number of dangerously strong and fatal Tornadoes in the Southeastern US. Most recently in Georgia and Alabama, and even here in Central Florida at the end of February. This has woken a lot of people up to the fact that severe weather can be dangerous. It has come to my attention that some people have dangerously made the assumption that Tornadoes are the only problem and that Hurricanes "aren't as bad". Especially recently with the killer Tornadoes in Central Florida (and amplified by the recent Birmingham Alabama F-5). Those people in Alabama have many stories to tell, I guarantee it.

This is wrong assumption to make. There is no doubt that a Hurricane is much more dangerous, however, unlike a tornado, we have the ability to track and warn with a much wider timeframe. Whereas with the tornado, having a 5 minute warning is good. And more often than not people are caught completely off guard. This is the reason Tornadoes kill. No to little Warning. For Hurricanes there used to be no warning. The City of Galveston Texas suffered 8 thousand dead because of no warning at the early part of this century. Lake Okechobee here in Florida had a Hurricane with little warning that killed many people earlier in the century. Hurricane Andrew would have killed many more if the warnings from the National Hurricane Center did not exist.

The danger... Over Warning versus not Warning at all and having the worst nightmare of a hurricane forecaster come true. Many people criticized the media in 1996 during Hurricane Bertha for overdoing it. Many of the beaches around here (including the one I live on) were given evacuation orders.

From my viewpoint what did people do?

I was well aware of Bertha, as I was tracking it for this page at the time and in general. However business had to be done in Daytona the day that Hurricane Watches were put up along the coastline. When I went up to Daytona Beach none of the evacuation orders had been put up. I was scanning the radio constantly for information on Bertha while driving around. Thank goodness I had filled my gas tank up earlier in the week. Every gas station had long lines. (Tip: If there is even a remote chance that a hurricane could come by in 3-4 days, fill your tank early to avoid the madness)

After the evacuation orders were given, people started getting a little wired on the road. I remained calm and went to lunch at the mainland Daytona Beach Steak & Shake restaurant. Inside it was casual, not many people even knew about the evacuation orders, but when they were told seemed a little shocked, but still blasé about it.

My business was done for the day, so I was off back to New Smyrna Beach to secure the home when the Watches were upgraded to Warnings (Bertha didn't start to turn north until around 6PM). On the way back the local news radio station (WNDB) was constantly talking about the storm and the midday show on WTKS (at the time, Ed Tyll) was hyping it up (scaring) people more than I thought was good. Not knowing what to expect on the bridge to the barrier island I was surprised to find that they weren't warning people going across the bridge. You could still come and go to the beach at will.

When I got back, I closed my hurricane shutters grabbed a few other things and went inland to a relative's home. The local TV news media was in No-Commercial full coverage mode and stayed that way until they were sure Bertha was turning north. I can understand how some people would get a little "scared" by the way the media in general handled the non-event.

Good and Bad from this?

The good? Well it could be considered a good test run of the system and it was reasonable for the Tropical Prediction Center (NHC) to issue the watches, and the call for evacuations was a close one and I'm glad they erred on safety's side. It's hard to gamble with things like this.

The Bad?

This particular area of Florida (Volusia County) has had no major (cat3+) hurricanes that have hit this century, and only a handful of cat 1 or 2 storms. Too many people don't know much about hurricanes and assume that Daytona Beach is "protected" somehow. This is a false rumor. Volusia has been lucky, but there is no reason it couldn't see a Andrew type storm. Complacency is dangerous. Do not think it can't happen and do follow recommendations from the Hurricane center. Keeping tabs on the situation with sites like this one can only help with assessing the situation. Therefore anyone intrigued enough to be reading this should know to follow recommendations from the Hurricane center.

Some people also overreacted, to the point of being dangerous on the road and being rude. Don't do this. Act smart, don't let the storm cloud your head. Think about your decisions. Make sure you have all the important stuff (like supplies) done BEFORE the watches and warnings show up. If you have a watch, be prepared to take action ASAP, and if you are in a Warning everything should be already done. If you live on a barrier Island and are asked to evacuate, don't gamble your life, go. If a storm turns out to be a "dud" like Bertha, don't let that effect you. If you fail to do it the next time, you may pay dearly for it. It only takes one...

On the lighter side here is another take on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Perhaps this may drive the point home, eh? (Reposted from Dosidicus). Treat homeowner as a homeowner on one of the barrier islands a stones throw from the beach.

Category 1 -

-----------------------74-95 mph--

------------980 mb-----------------

--------------<4-5 ft. storm surge

Homeowner	Worried? Give me a break. Unless you're a package of purified paranoia, try to sit back and enjoy the ride, and watch all your neighbors go running like sissies. Maybe you can help yourself to a few of their goods while they're gone...but you wouldn't do that, would you?
Chaser	A milk run. Unless you're starved for storms, save your money. Or join the Tropical Cyclone Research Division, and get a way cool lapel pin. Just call 1-800-555-CANE.
Insurer	"Get me a beer."

Category 2 -

-----------------------96-110mph-

----------980-965 mb--------------

--------------6-8 ft. storm surge

Homeowner	Ahh, you think, this could be interesting. You can stick around and watch the shingles fly, then ooh and ahh at the rolling homestead of that trailer-trash family that sicced their pit bull on your poor tabby a year ago. A down side is that you just might lose that beautiful tree in your backyard. Since it could fall on your house, you should probably cut it just right so that it falls on your neighbor's. They'd probably never find out, you suspect. Of course, your roof just might go a flying, and then can curse the contracting company that sucked out of your bank account for that flimsy flap of plywood and particleboard. Ain't life grand?
Chaser	Fair game for any chaser that's worth his salt. You move on in, while everyone's moving on out!
Insurer	"Get me a vodka."

Category 3 -

---------------------111-130mph-

----------964-940 mb--------------

------------9-12 ft. storm surge

Homeowner	"Uh, Miami, we have a problem. You seem to have upgraded this hurricane to category 3, which can't be right, since I'd lose everything--well, a lot of stuff--I hold dear. Please tell me you're wrong, that this is a joke or some PR stunt." "Sorry, civilian, we have no sense of humor. We just forecast. Good luck. Bye." Why that rotten...this is very bad. "What if it all comes down? What am I going to do? Damn the beautiful coast, for tempting me to live here!" Well, you just better pray to the Good Lord, and hope you don't get a busy signal. You decide to skip town, but not before rigging your home with enough booby traps to snare a platoon of Navy SEALS.
Chaser	"Bring 'im ('er) on!"
Insurer	"Get me 10 cc's of morphine. Prontissimo."

Category 4 -

------------------------156+ mph-

----------944-920 mb--------------

-----------13-18 ft. storm surge

Homeowner	There can be only one explanation for this--karma. Somewhere down the line you did something that wasn't good, and now the Universe is going to make you pay for it. And boy, will you ever pay for it--if only your premiums were higher! You decide that you're not too attached to the roof and four walls in your home, because after all, they're just things...that you bought. After throwing an elaborate temper tantrum (whichothers interpret as a hurricane dance) and uttering a string of vulgarities that would make Sam Kinison turn in his grave, you put many, many miles between here and there ("there" will certainly not be one of your relatives' homes, because they're almost as scary as any hurricane). You take a picture for memory's sake.
Chaser	The gray matter in a chaser's brain decreases proportionally to the increase in the category of a hurricane (Chaser's First Theorem), which is why you're deciding to chain yourself to a telephone post on the waterfront. Why to a telephone post 100 feet from shore instead of a concrete post in Nebraska is anyone's guess...only you know for sure.
Insurer	"Get me a wooden mallet."

Category 5 -

---------------------131-155mph-

---------------<919 mb-------------

--------------19+ ft. storm surge

Homeowner	TGFI! Thank God For Insurance! That is, if you have any. If not, then you might as well buy some camping equipment while you're outta town, rent a shopping cart, and survey the nicest ditch around for when you come back. Then again, you can always move in one of your folks, and mooch off of them for the rest--well, until the time is right to start over. You gather no less than 1.5 tons of souvenirs for your trip out of town, and you don't plan to visit whatever's left. It's been...nice.
Chaser	"Well, sir, I'd prefer a walnut box, yay big?"
Insurer	"Get me a gun."

- [mac]

Dr Gray's New Predictions and Other Information
2PM EDT - 8 April 1998

Dr Gray has issued his April forecast... with the following information:

Dr Gray's Forecast:	#
Named Storms	10
Hurricanes	6
Major Hurricanes	2
Named Storm Days	50

This represents a slightly below "Average" hurricane season, which is still more than last year's slow season. El Niño was partly to blame for that last year. However since El Niño appears to be waning, this gives a higher chance for the season to be a little more active. Also water temperatures off west Africa are slightly above normal. Should be an interesting season to track, and we here hope to do it again this summer. I'm toying with different layouts for the current storm spotlight right now. We also did minor changes to a few information pages.

The National Hurricane Conference is also going on right now. Hopefully we can find out more about it soon.

For more information on Dr. William Gray's Hurricane Forecast, go visit his site at.. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/! It's definately a need to see.
As for this site... Well, we aren't moving!!! ... but keep in mind our "backup" site in the left frame. http://digital.net/~jrc1/tropics(Or keep it bookmarked)
as this location may or may not be here in the future... Until then continue to use http://www.outdoor.com/tropics!! CFHC!
- [mac]

Update
23 March 1998

We will be switching to the new site very soon as outdoor.com will be no longer shortly. When the new location becomes known, it will be posted here.
In the mean time, check out Info on the 1998 Florida Hurricane Exercise (Aka Hurricane Zeke).. that is held in May
You may find more information on it here: http://www.state.fl.us/comaff/DEM/hurex98.htm
Also, if you are interested in learning more about Hurricanes you may be interested in the 12th Annual Governor's Hurricane Conference in Tampa June 1-5.
Info at http://www.state.fl.us/comaff/DEM/ghc98.htm.
[mac]

1998 Storm Season
15 January 1998

We are still alive and we hope to improve next year's updated with more original graphics and better information. We will also likely introduce new software for keeping track of hurricanes with near-realtime data with a TCP/IP client app. Details to come as hurricane season approaches on June 1, 1998. Click Here to read Professor William Gray's 1998 Hurricane Season Forecast.
[mac]

Archived Year: [1996] [1997] [1998] [1999] [2000] [2001] [2002] [ Main Page ]

Archives for the 1995 season were not kept. The site existed on a part time basis in 1995 and was not known as CFHC until 1996. It was the active 1995 season that gave the inspiration for CFHC.