CFHC Talkback For News Story #103:
Newest Talkback: 07:55 PM 09-19 EDT

Lots of Action out there
08:06 PM EDT - 18 September 2000

Gordon still causing a lot of rain in the southeast. But he is gone!

More action brewing in the tropics.  Remnants of TD #12 working it way in south of Cuba is looking like it may strengthen some.  Two other tropical waves east of the Caribbean we need to keep an eye on.  

Sorry for not being here it was not my choice to go to Texas it was my Job.  Still here working of a slow laptop.  And trying to keep up with the tropics while I'm in a school.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #39 - #59 (of 59 total)
I Agree Gerry (#39)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:54PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

It definitely looks as though it has an LLCC, but it will all depend on who's flying the recon...Mr. Magoo or a pilot. J/K!!! We will find out soon, I am sure...but my bet (because of the losses I have taken this season) would be to state the obvious, GOM will be Helene, and Caribbean thing will be Isaac....just following past logic!!!!
Interesting GFDL Run (#40)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 03:15PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

TROPICAL STORM TWELVE 12L



INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 19



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.9 78.3

6 19.4 78.9 311./ 7.2

12 20.3 80.2 303./15.3

18 21.0 81.8 296./16.6

24 21.9 82.9 306./13.2

30 22.7 83.9 308./12.5

36 23.7 84.7 323./12.5

42 24.7 85.0 340./10.1

48 25.7 85.1 355./10.6

54 26.8 85.0 6./10.6

60 27.7 84.7 18./ 9.5

66 28.5 83.9 43./10.5

72 29.4 83.1 44./12.2

78 30.4 82.2 42./12.2

84 31.3 81.2 49./12.1

90 32.2 80.2 46./13.0

96 33.6 79.2 37./16.0

102 34.8 78.2 38./15.0

108 36.0 77.0 46./15.1

114 37.1 75.5 53./15.7

120 38.1 73.8 60./17.1

126 39.1 72.2 57./16.2






Not sure if we should read anything into the "Tropical Storm 12" Header on that. Its not the normal header. This could be an interesting system if it has developed.
GDFL (#41)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 03:34PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

I plotted them out and that puts the storm on top of Cedar Key in 72 hours. Very strange.
Recon?? (#42)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 03:43PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRPNQPXNWP*)

Has anyone heard anything about the latest recons??
Former TD12 (#43)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 04:17PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTP*)

Interesting info from SSD

19/1745Z 18.9N 79.2W T1.0/2.0 TD12

Looks like it is not in as good of shape as we though with the T# drop. I thought a saw a llcc earlier; but not really seeing an evidence of it now.


recon (#44)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 04:23PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNV*)

why hasn't there been any information from the recon flights sent out this afternoon?
RECON INFO (#45)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:29PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTV*)

Hello All,
I have only found one report from the flight. They were located at 18.9 n 79.8 west pressure 1012mb wind 27 knots fro 230 degrees at 1750Z
230? (#46)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:37PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

230 is wsw.. that would indicate a closed low, but does that reflect at the surface? the analyses theyve been giving indicate a pretty sharp inverted trough to the wave but too much forward motion for it to work itself up a surface low.. so as the thing begins a turn to the nw it gets a better shot at organizing. im not really sure its doing that, however.. this thing is almost right over grand cayman and theyre hardly reporting a breeze.. by the way, last night i noticed that the western gulf buoy was reporting a pressure slightly lower than the other buoys and of those on the texas coast.. at the time i thought nothing of it, but now i wonder if that was some trough related to the current BOC activity? a precursory feature?
aw well, suppertime and then more class. take it easy cfhc folks.
TC Interaction (#47)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 04:39PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRTRNQXU*)

In the event that the two lows get very close to each other, and if conditions were favorable for it, they would theoretically engage in a Fujiwhara interaction. In the "classic" pattern, both storms would revolve cyclonically about a center point. Since both systems are nearly the same size, this is a likely option. However, it would probably be difficult to see just by looking at their tracks; you'd have to plot their tracks relative to each other over time, or better yet, relative to a "centroid" between the two systems.

It's been found recently that TC interaction is more complicated than had once been thought, and I've simplified it some.
TD#12 (#48)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:39PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTV*)

Hello All,
The latest satellite still shows some type of circulation but the center of this circulation has become clouded over so its harder to see. I do see clouds to the southwest moving northeast and clouds to the southeast moving northwest and clouds to the northeast moving southwest but I don't see clouds to the northwest moving southeast so I'm not sure if its a closed circulation yet and thats the 30 million dolar question
Tropical Development Update (#49)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:00PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTV*)

Hello All,
Well the latest reports are showing we have only low level circulation in the Gulf and northeast carribean no surface circulation. We also have a strong easterly wind at about 50 knots approaching from the east in the carribean which may stop any development of this wave so for now just wait and see again...
Developement? (#50)
Posted by: Alex
Posted On 05:07PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQPNRQTNS*)

Does anyone know if the nhc upgraded either of the 2 lows as of the 5 pm eastern time advisory?
Re: Alex (#51)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:16PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUT*)

No, they did not....

Colleen
Too early (#52)
Posted by: Kim Location: Baton Rouge
Posted On 05:32PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNVWNQQT*)

Wanted to say that I really enjoy this site! The observations are great! Is it too early to be concerned about the blow-up in the BOC? Thanks!
SHIP REPORTS FROM CARRIBEAN (#53)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 06:37PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNQYQ*)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
325 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000

CURRENT TRENDS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPING SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA...NOW ALREADY OVER
THE STRAITS AND CLOSING IN ON THE KEYS. THE CONVECTION...AND WINDS
TOO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS MOST INTENSE OVER AND SOUTH OF
CUBA...AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE ACTIVITY (THAT IS THE BACK
EDGE) IS ALSO MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THIS MOMENT...THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT IS AFFECTING THE KEYS...SHOWS
A MORE NARROW WIDTH...WITH EASTERN EDGE NOW PASSING OVER ANDROS
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS STRONGEST AT AND TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. SHIP ELVO3...OFF NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA...REPORTED ESE WINDS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS 8 FT THIS MORNING...EAST
OF THE WAVE AXIS. AND EVEN FARTHER EAST JUST OFF THE SE BAHAMAS...
SHIP 4XGS HAD WINDS E 28 KT AND HIGH SEAS. THUS...PROLONGED HIGHER
WINDS AFTER WAVE PASSAGE IS THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WINDS EVEN EAST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AREA.

I wonder who is flying these recons??? (#54)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 06:48PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNQUU*)

does he know where to fly to find that circulation
in the carribean??or is he just site seeing
LOL Scott!! (#55)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:12PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPY*)

That is funny, as I have said before I think Mr.Magoo is flying them. The TWO forecaster seems to either a)not have seen the easterlies mentioned by Dr. Lyons' that would inhibit development of this wave or b)they aren't there and Dr. Lyons' is confused.

I must say, this season has been strange, and apparantly will stay that way until November. I, for one, will be glad when they start predicting snow for Florida. The way things are going this year, who WOULDN'T believe them?

See ya!! Colleen
Tropical Storm Warning (#56)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:33PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQQV*)

Just a quick note to say a TS Warning is already in effect for Western tip of Cuba on my site
colleen/scottsvb (#57)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 07:38PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXY*)

I quess the NHC read your post
TD12 HAS REFORMED (#58)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 07:40PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSVNST*)

TD 12 has formed as of 7pm eastern,,i have posted on my site the details of this,,please go there to get the latest info,,,scottsvb
A note (#59)
Posted by: Mike (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 07:55PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

I'm back. Wasn't by choice that I was gone. I was out two days longer than expected because my vehicle broke down near Martinsville, VA.

Lots to do tonight other than the page, so updates probably won't continue until tomorrow. Thanks to John for handling the page while I was gone, and to everyone else for keeping it going while I was away.

- mac
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