CFHC Talkback For News Story #117:
Newest Talkback: 12:03 AM 09-28 EDT

Hurricane Joyce and the Season
10:54 AM EDT - 27 September 2000

Joyce has been upgraded to a hurricane, and continues to zip on toward the west at a pretty good clip. Joyce will have potential to affect the Caribbean later on, so it must be watched. The MRF does have it missing the islands to the north as it goes on a loop, though. But that's conjecture.

I thought that it would be good to note how active this season really has been. Regardless of a lot of storms that just went "poof", we are already up to the "J" storm this year. Which is as far as we got entirely last year. And there's still two months left in Hurricane Season.

The peak is over, but the potential is not.

We will continue to watch the tropics...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. or Joyce From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #48 - #68 (of 68 total)
Colleen.... (#48)
Posted by: Frank (http://fjpell2@aol.com) Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:24PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQQ*)

Hey, and how do we know this is really Colleen
Fired up.... (#49)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:27PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQQ*)

I think Colleen and Steve did it intentionally just to put a fire under us to get some board action tonight (LOL).... looks like it worked too... Colleen, sure hope you didn't email any of this bunk to the NHC... hehe
oops (#50)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:28PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Sorry about the improper English but I wanted to post quick. Steve don't sweat the small stuff.
Dyna-Gel (#51)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com/) Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:30PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRURNVVNQUX*)

It has been confirmed that back in the 60's there were some attempts at cloud seeding to equalize the temperatures or some such nonsense. Though cloud seeding has been used occasionally with limited success to help relieve drought conditions, all attempts to weaken hurricanes have been stopped. First off, with as little as we know about cyclones, there's a decent chance we would intensify a storm rather than weaken it. How would you (NOAA) like to deal with the political fallout from that? Secondly, figure the eye of the hurricane to be a few cubic miles. Just think about how much of Product X you would have to dump into the ocean to even begin to have any effect at all on a storm that size. Logic would tell you that even if this far-fetched story were somehow possibly true, an armada of planes or ships would be required to carry it out. Do you think GreenPeace would be ok with NOAA dumping a few hundred tons of Product X or Y into the ocean? It would never happen without years of preliminary testing. Trust me. If, in fact, 50 people did resign from NOAA today, I'll bet it has much more to do with management than with any kind of TOP SECRET Dyna-Gel testing.
Stormhound (#52)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:33PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Do you know if any were form NHC ?
Steve and Colleen (#53)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com/) Location: O-Town
Posted On 09:34PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRURNVVNQUX*)

Boy you guys are retracting this stuff before I can post a contradiction. I get these kind of stories from the internet all the time in my job. I've learned to always check my sources three or four times before reacting to it.
I think the guy who runs the models quit (second try) (#54)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:41PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9000) ON 20000929 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 0000 000929 1200 000930 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000930 1200 001001 0000 001002 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 16.5N LON0 = 82.5W DIR0 = 0DEG SPD0 = 0KT

LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 0DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 82.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....




I think the guy who runs the models quit (second try) (#55)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:41PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9000) ON 20000929 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000929 0000 000929 1200 000930 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000930 1200 001001 0000 001002 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 16.5N LON0 = 82.5W DIR0 = 0DEG SPD0 = 0KT

LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 0DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 82.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....




Does that mean we have TD #15? (#56)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 09:50PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Gary,

Do you think they are trying to initiate TD #15? The model post was a bit confusing with the missing info.
Stormhound (#57)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:51PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUR*)

I agree, however; this was not something that I read or just heard about. It was someone who is a very good friend of mine, that I have known for over two years, that IM'd me at home with this information. Looking back, I should have noticed some clues, but I didn't until after I found out it was not the person I thought it was. I apologised humbly, so please accept it that way. It was eerie, and it was scary. They also im'd his family and told him his wife was in the hospital dying and they needed to come down right away. If his family thought it was him, why shouldn't I have believed that it was him?

Anyway, it's over now. Heads up Florida...
DynaGel (#58)
Posted by: brian
Posted On 09:51PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QWRNQVRNPNRRW*)

Give people credit for admitting a faux pas on the DynaGel debacle. Takes a big person to do so!! Thankfully I scrolled through all the posts before firing off a salvo. I did like the crack about how much DynaGel washed up on the shores over in the UK though!! ROFLOL !!!
Clyde w (#59)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:55PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

That was my point. I don't know why the info is missing but it,s the second time they released it in the last two hours
Caribbean System (#60)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 09:57PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

Well to Steve and Coleen's credit. It did make me do a pretty exhaustive search for more info before I made the comment. No harm in that, I believe.

As far as the Caribbean system, yes it's finally coming together and may be something tomorrow.
I'll try to squeeze out a site update tonight. They've been pretty bland for the past few weeks, and I need to comment a bit more I think.

Colleen and Steve H. (#61)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 10:00PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

I was just teasing with the UK joke. Please don't take it personally. I read both of yours (and others) posts here faithfully and fully enjoy what everyone adds to the site. Didn't mean to offend, if I did, my apologies to both.
petrol products in the soup (#62)
Posted by: Chris Location: Cary
Posted On 10:01PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNWSNWYNQRX*)

I have seen articles in a couple of reputable science magazines recently(i.e. May 2000 Scientific American) that talk about dumping a couple hundred tons of oil in the path of a hurricane thereby creating a thin barrier on the surface, impeding convection. This amount would represent less then 100th of 1% of the oil dumped into oceans annually. Considering the number of land threathening hurricanes each year, this would literally be a drop in the bucket. Therefore, the environmentalists can't have as much to say.

I saw a comment earlier about this 'dynagel' washing up on the beaches. How often do you see oil on your beaches, with the thousands and thousands of tons dumped? But here is the question: What if you were able to stop all cyclones from developing? What do you think would be the net result? Higher SST's resulting in a eventual Category 9 hurricane! I'm interested in your thoughts....

the end of the discussion (#63)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:04PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQTU*)

Thankfully, this Dynagel discussion is over. However, the tropics are getting more active, so we'll have to keep our eyes open on Joyce, the Western Caribbean, and anywhere else developement might occur.
C at 9 (#64)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 10:07PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Chris,

I have long been a believer of the theory that the purpose of weather systems is to "let off atmospheric steam" so to speak. If all hurricanes were eliminated, I think the results would be a throwing off of the balance of nature, resulting in catastrophic weather events not necessarily related to the tropics. I can only guess as to the types, but I would bet floods, violent land based weather systems, and such would be the net result.
Mid - Level - Low (#65)
Posted by: Richard Davis (http://flhurricane.com/rad) Location: St Petersburg, Florida
Posted On 10:17PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRXNRNSY*)

As far as the low pressure "center" in the Carribean. I dont think us folks here in central florida will have too much to worry about. It will probably track north by north-east and just be a general "Rainmaker" of sort's , and we could use the rain!!!!! As far as Joyce well lets just say gimme 4 days . The people in the islands should start preparing NOW!!!
Test Runs (#66)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:53PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUR*)

Winds on twave in Caribbean are up to 25knts/or mph now. maybe another TD by tomorrow? or tonight? And yes, this is the REAL Colleen back from the land of loonies.

The imposter, btw, has been caught.
a Hurricane's Power (#67)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Alabama
Posted On 11:06PM 27-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVQ*)

When one consider the latent energy in the seas, and the forces at work when a hurricane is wreaking it's havoc...it's unbelievable that someone could think that puny man could stop one. Ever notice that whenever man "improves" things then the consequences later are worse than the problem at first. I fear that government and big business...the day they decide the "help" us with hurricanes...is the day we better watch with trepidation. Hurricanes are built in relief valves to dispense excess heat in the waters...whenever the seas are too hot...the fish and little critters suffer. Anyway...I hope this forum doesn't too quickly fall for another "dynagel" hoax...

It was a good laugh...I went through a hurricane....so to think mankind could invent something to stop it is rather amusing.....
Comment (#68)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 12:03AM 28-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNYV*)

Hurricanes are great at transporting heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. I read somewhere that if 12 hurricanes were simulataneously churning the world ocean, it would take care of the whole tropics - mid-latitude heat transport, at least for the respective seasons. However, I doubt there have ever been 12 hurricanes at once, and the fact that all hell isn't breaking loose without 12 hurricanes at once confirms that hurricanes aren't truly necessary, in the atmospheric sense. I disagree with storm modification more for philosophical than practical reasons. However, they perform valuable functions, such as providing rains--some places get a LOT of their annual rainfall from TCs-- "cleaning out" swamps and lagoons (like the Everglades), increasing biodiversity in forests by clearing old trees, and perhaps other services we haven't even considered.

As for storm modification, even if it works:

--it would take years to test
--it would probably take a long time to gain the public's trust
--it would still be difficult to pick changes caused by seeding out from changes that might or might not have occurred without it.
--it's unlikely other countries would accept it readily; both Mexico and Japan rejected possible storm modifying programs in their AORs.
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