CFHC Talkback For News Story #118:
Newest Talkback: 10:41 PM 10-14 EDT

Hurricane Irene Forms South of Western Cuba
06:17 AM EDT - 14 October 1999

Although the future track is still somewhat debatable, signs indicate that it will effect us in Florida this weekend. There is already a hurricane Watch for the southern half of the Keys and for a good portion of western Cuba. We may see watches for the West Coast tomorrow.

How strong will Irene get and where will landfall be? This is open for discussion, and I'm not willing to comment yet. The storm is growing stronger now, but Cuba will impede it a bit. How much it does may be critical for us. We'll be watching.



For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #28 - #48 (of 48 total)
Clarification (#28)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 03:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXQ*)

Ok, this time I caught what Dr. Lyon's was saying: the radar beam is coming from about 22,000 feet and it could make the circulation look as though it has moved more to the east than it actually has...that the center of circulation is probably a little sw than what the radar is showing. I have to say, I don't believe this storm is moving a 9mph. It just doesn't look like it to me. Then again, I could be wrong. I don't think anyone is out of the woods on this one yet.
Radar Beam (#29)
Posted by: John McLain
Posted On 03:29PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QWPNQRNRRNRV*)

So why all of a sudden does the radar image manifest itself incorrectly? Has the height suddenly changed? If not, then why was this phenonmena not appearing earlier - say like oh, maybe, always?

I never fail to be amazed and amused when the unexpected happens and is met with weak explanations. Its all about TV ratings at this point.


Radar Beam (#30)
Posted by: John McLain
Posted On 03:29PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QWPNQRNRRNRV*)

So why all of a sudden does the radar image manifest itself incorrectly? Has the height suddenly changed? If not, then why was this phenonmena not appearing earlier - say like oh, maybe, always?

I never fail to be amazed and amused when the unexpected happens and is met with weak explanations. Its all about TV ratings at this point.


comment (#31)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 04:03PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUS*)

Radar is the item to track to so called hurricane.
Since the pressure still is at 955mb,,,,it should
be a 60mph storm...........ratings and
evactuations......!!!

Well ignore now the satillite loops in direction.
We can track her with the radar,,,,,,It might
turn more to the N-northwest overnight,,but we
will know by morning where it will really hit.

Now it is south of Tampa and Ft.Myers,,,so a hit
on the west coast is unlikey,,,,,but we will
see what hapeens overnight,,,,,there is a slim
chance it might just brush the Keys and head
towards the Bahammas,,,,,,,,,Still is this another
storms afraid to hit West Florida,,,,,I will
give all my analysas later,. ,,the slim chance
of missing Florida is growing.
irene and jogging (#32)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 04:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

I dont think a Florida landfall is anywhere near out of the question. A few more hours of watching the forward progress of the storm will tell us more. I really dont think any community(read elected officials here) wants evacuations if not needed after the way somepeople reacted after Floyd. A ratings game, to say it is still going to resume back north, maybe. If this currnet movement is a quck jog, we may see the storm affecting a wider portion of the state. This will not be "going away" like harvey did regardless of its track ...
troy
New TD? (#33)
Posted by: Bill
Posted On 04:20PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

On another subject..
the AFD ( forecast discussion) from San Juan says another depression is forming on a wave at 33w, expected to move west at low latittudes into the Caribbean (and reference is made to Hazel in 1954). Does anyone know anything about this?

RE: Irene...she is going back to a more N-NNE course. I believe she will strike the Keys, and menace S/SW FL...could be through/up the Keys then to Dade. In fact, the NHC will put hurricane warnings up for the entire Keys at 5pm,and possibly a watch/warnings for SE Fl. The new forecast track takes the storm near Key West.

A miss...possible of course, but not likely. A path like Floyd in 97 is not out of the question. Odd the models are almost all still out to lunch?!
That does make me wonder about the 'ultimate' path///October storms can be trickier than usual!

IHS,

Bill



Irene,,,,,new TD..... (#34)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 04:32PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUS*)

Yes Bill,,,a new TD,,,,,could be in the works
in a couple days......Mrf model which is a
real good long range model(which prodicted Irene)
has a tropical strom heading south of Haiti by
Monday-Tuesday,,,,,,,,lets see later on that.

Irene new advisory could be back to a tropical strom,,,but will be alot stronger by morning,,,
maybe more of a north turn again overnight,,but
it doesn't,,then it will missall of western Florida. (only naples--West Palm)
Irene Almost Over Gulf Of Mexico (#35)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:37PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQTYNQYT*)

Irene on the latest visible satellite is about 2/3 the way thru Cuba and is showing a circuliar center expanding around the center itself. I don't believe its an eye trying to form but maybe the influnce of it being over land. I'm not sure but would like some more imput from all of you.
I do believe Irene is back on a northward track and I have heard unoffically that a Hurricane Warning is going to be posted for southwest Florida at the 5pm advisory. If Irene stays on this northward track a landfall near Ft Myers is likely late Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain on radar is now approaching the Keys and this area will continue to move northward over night and into south Florida durring the mourning hours Friday. I live in Cape Coral which is along the coast just west of Ft Myers and the Emergency Management of Lee county is discussing mandentory evacuation on Friday for Ft Myers Beach and Sanible Island. Stay tuned.....
New watches and warnings (#36)
Posted by: Jeanine Location: Hollywood, FL
Posted On 04:58PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNTNQYS*)

Well S.E. Florida has now been added, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Florida City to Jupiter inlet. I was just on my way home and the roads are terrible here, our backyard looks like a pond and some of the streets and starting to become unpassible in the residential areas! I'm glad to see all of the posts on this page! It was quiet for a bit!!!!
no turn to the east (#37)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 05:06PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QUPNQWVNVSNR*)

look at the latest track.There is no drastic turn to the east until later. The center has the storm keeping the nne movement across the state, entering below Ft. Myers and crossing directly across the state. It looks a lot like the path Donna took, if I'm not mistaken. Of course, Donna was a lot stronger storm.
But the latest track also has the storm only reaching 75K.
Irene intensifying, heading for Keys and SW Fl- Marco Island (#38)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 05:24PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNUQ*)

The pressure fel 2mb in last 3 hrs while Irene has been over land and an impressive bloom of deep convection is forming near and over the center and enlarging. The storm will probably reach borderline Cat 2 (80 kts I believe) before landfall near Marco.

The storm IS intensifying as it moves NNE..a switch to a more N path could take it right up the west coast, ala TS Marco in 1990, but much stronger.

Bill
Models out to lunch (#39)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 05:27PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSS*)

Maybe its me but it looks like most of the latest model runs are completely out to lunch. I can't even find one that is initializing with info close to where Irene is. I will be so happy when it gets far enough away from Cuba that real recon can resume. Trying to pick these things off of radar and Sat pix is not very efficient at times.
Irene #58886 (#40)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:09PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQWV*)

Just a little humor there to get everyone's attention!!! Well, it seems as though the pressure has dropped considerably, now down to 988mb according to TWC. It also looks as though it is now on a due N course. I have been watching this and will look again at 7:30pm because sometimes your eyes fool you and you think you see something you don't. As a matter of fact, it almost looked a wee bit west of due N...but then again, it's been a long week and my eyes are REALLY tired. She looks much better organized than earlier now that the storm has re-emerged over water. Well..keep up the great work everyone...post and post often. And check out Mike Anderson's site and post there too...we can never have too much info. Colleen
West Coast may not be out of it (#41)
Posted by: JimM Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 07:23PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSR*)

I've been looking at the recon and sat for a while now[Slow night in the office with a nice T-3 for sucking down info :)], I did see the extrapolated pressure report from the NOAA aircraft of 988. Interesting thing is that they only found a max 53kt flight level wind. Cuba may have hindered Irene more than was initially thought. Although convection around the center seems to be on the increase now that it is moving off of Cuba. Recon fix even suggest a slight westerly component to the movement. That is in line with some of the models that bring it up the west coast. Probably best just to keep an eye on Irene. The picture may be muddled for a while more.
2 things (#42)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 07:57PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUP*)

1 Thing,,,,,,,she's moving nnw,,,,,a jog
Ready to Explode? (#43)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay Fl.
Posted On 08:06PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNSU*)

As Irene has come off the coast of Cuba the convection has really exploded. The pressure has fallen quite a bit and I'm afraid the bottom could drop out with rapid intensification if the atmosphere remains favorable. Its Northerly movement is bad since it could intensify more than expected if further out in the SE gulf. If then it turns NE after being over the water longer than thought it could be a real buzzsaw when (if) it goes across the peninsula near St. Pete (that where I figured it would go last night; my story and I'm sticking to it, even if its wrong). But even with the blowoff of some of the convection to the north and east, its center looks real impressive. Stay on guard for this one, maybe she heard Scott say she was afraid of the west coast!
BILL,IRENE (#44)
Posted by: SCOTTSVB
Posted On 08:19PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (VSNQSNSVNRUP*)

your call on this Bill is good,,,,I feel alittle
farther south. I thought for the whole duration
of this that she would explode tonight,,,but I
hope it wasn't down,,,due to the bad dry air,,,
and I told everyone 2 days ago to keep an eye
on that,,,,,,lets see what happens between 12am
and 5am,,,,,,,.(water vapor),,,Sarasota landfall?
Irene (#45)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 09:17PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQWV*)

Irene remains disorganized this evening as dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico entraines into the western semicircle. This dry air will not subside as Irene moves north, therefore I expect to see little strengthening before landfall. After a northeast trot--prosaic for cyclones in a weak steering flow--Irene has resumed a northward motion this evening. This northward motion should continue for the next 24 hours and then bend toward the north-northeast thereafter. I expect landfall to occur somewhere between Ft. Myers and St. Petersburg in 36 to 48 hours.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
drop in winds (#46)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 09:58PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QUPNQWVNVSNR*)

The latest recon flight said that the maximum surface winds were 50 kts for Irene. That puts her at tropical storm strength.
Looks like the dry air to the west is taking its toll and as far as future strenght, that puts her at a lower starting point when she decides to act up again.
latest recon (#47)
Posted by: alan Location: ORLANDO
Posted On 10:07PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QUPNQWVNVSNR*)

Another little tid bit from the latest recon report. It put the location at 23.1 n, 82.4 w, meaning it's going a little bit east of ne.
John Hope on the weather channel just confirmed that it hadn't moved much and he doesn't expect it to move much for the next 24 hours.
In Orlando, we can still see stars. You would think that even with the little movement north, we would start to see the line of rain bands moving toward Orlando, but it seems as if that line, the edge of the rain, is moving further south.
Perhaps this is an indication of the storm's shrinking.
Hurricane Watches (#48)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:41PM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQYW*)

As of 11 tonight, the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to inlcude the Tampa Bay area...Anclote Key...this is a major development (considering the fact that we were pretty much written off as of the last advisory) it is still not over, but...pay attention Tampa...just pay attention. Colleen
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