 March |
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On the 13th of March Jim Williams and Barometer Bob will be doing an audio broadcast on the 10th anniversary of the 1993 Storm of the Century. Check it out. - [jc] |
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Tropical Storms, Worldwide
(#1) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 09:56AM 24-Feb-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNVW*) |
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No current tropical cyclone (last update 2002-02-24 12:16 UT)
(Click here) http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html |
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16p
(#2) Posted by: Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK Posted On 05:36PM 24-Feb-2002 with id (RQSNQRRNVUNQTX*) |
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TC 16p is now developed, and located in the southwest Pacific... the link in the above post will take you to the relevant tracking chart.
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Glad the site is back up.
(#3) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 05:46PM 24-Feb-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXRNRTY*) |
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I hope everything goes smoothly as far getting the site back up goes. Looks like the last REALLY cold cold snap is about to materialize in the middle of this week. After that, I believe it's time for spring. I am still monitoring the Atlantic basin and El Nino. I still haven't changed my thoughts about 2002. Should be a season we'll all remember as a destructive (sorta like 1999 perhaps). I look forward to Dr. Gray's second forecast. (5th of April)
Take care, Kevin |
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prog
(#4) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 11:16PM 24-Feb-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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i was sort of hoping that once this big polar high came down that a southern stream low would give the interior south another snowstorm at the end of the week.. looks less likely than it did a couple days ago. such is life. not so keen on the 'la nina is back' announcement on the last post topic. it has been going away since december. we're still in neutral country, but tipping more to the el nino side. really, go look at the fnmoc otis map that is updated every twelve hours. more warm sst anomalies west of peru as time goes by.
today is an anniversary.. not so much a weather one.. well.. eleven years ago the ground war started in the persian gulf. dad says it was cold and stormy after things kicked off, more so than during any other point in the deployment. big sandstorm and all, cold rain in the desert. guess i'd better call him tomorrow, i know he's thinking about it. later y'all. |
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Cold Blast!
(#5) Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL Posted On 03:09PM 25-Feb-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNRPP*) |
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Looking over new guidence shows a very cold Thursday morning over FL. Guidence has N FL 10 to 20 F...Cent 20s and 30s...S FL 40s. This looks like it may be the coldest temps so far this season. So late season freeze is on the way!
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A MAYBE on the Cold
(#6) Posted by: Steve H. Posted On 04:40PM 25-Feb-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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Actually I should retract that. Florida could end up colder than some places in the Northeast due to an intense low that some models (UKMET) send into the Great Lakes/western NY. That would keep them on the warm side in the big cities while the front plows through dixie. Jury still out as again model confusion reigns on next weekend's system. BTW, you folks see the storm that went through Florida and is now in the Sargasso sea heading NE?? Looks almost warm core!!! I had some wind damage here in Palm Bay Saturday nite. Some of my fencing got torn loose. That was interesting. Cheers!!
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chilldown
(#7) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 05:00PM 26-Feb-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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thursday morning should be record cold here, mid to upper teens. of course by the weekend we should be seasonable again. big cold shot but no storm here. kind of anticlimatic, really.
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Cold Weather
(#8) Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland Posted On 09:51AM 27-Feb-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTQ*) |
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Brrrrrrr is on the way...heard on WFLA radio today that it has not been this cold this time in February since 1989. I have a feeling that it is going to be much different in the tropics this year than the last 2-3 years.
Just a hunch, ya know. Anyway, in the meantime...keep warm!!!! Colleen :-) |
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Hey Colleen
(#9) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 11:02AM 27-Feb-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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Bet yer boots it is!!! I forgot my jacket today too! Temp dropped 10 degrees in the last hour here in South Brevard County. The tropics should be hot though. Talk to ya soon! Cheers!!q
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Tropics and cold/extreme weather
(#10) Posted by: Bill Location: TLH Posted On 11:32AM 27-Feb-2002 with id (RPTNQQPNRQRNXR*) |
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Hi Colleen and all-
actually, there is an 'inverse correlation' between episodes of cold weather, especially later in the winter/early spring and tropical activity. There are certain parameters that if exceeded go one way or the other...but, in general, the later/stronger/severe outbreaks seem to be paired with early season activity and stronger/more active seasons. The atmosphere is a big heat engine that is always trying to balance out! IHS, Bill |
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Tropics and cold/extreme weather
(#11) Posted by: Bill Location: TLH Posted On 11:32AM 27-Feb-2002 with id (RPTNQQPNRQRNXR*) |
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Hi Colleen and all-
actually, there is an 'inverse correlation' between episodes of cold weather, especially later in the winter/early spring and tropical activity. There are certain parameters that if exceeded go one way or the other...but, in general, the later/stronger/severe outbreaks seem to be paired with early season activity and stronger/more active seasons. The atmosphere is a big heat engine that is always trying to balance out! IHS, Bill |
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I agree Bill.
(#12) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 04:06PM 27-Feb-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXRNWR*) |
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The highly linked global pattern of weather is all about balance. I will reiterate this again...there has been a lack of cooling in the tropics this year. This along with favorable upper level patterns should bring a rather nasty hurricane season. This won't be a year with a bunch of fishes either...Azores High looks to be setting up quite nicely this year. But first, we must get through these "polar" next few days.
Take care, Kevin |
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march first
(#13) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 12:16AM 01-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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freezing cold beginning to the first month of climatologic northern spring. i'm wondering if this year we will get a may tropical system.. something that hasn't happened since 1993 (t.d. on the last day of the month, excluding the subtropical storm that began organizing on 31may1997). we havent had a named tropical cyclone in may since 1981, quite a bit longer than records indicate as normal. since we are entering weak el nino mode, an early onset to the season is more likely.. of course the official season is still a whole three months away. but how far in the future will arthur be? hmmm...
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Bull had 14 children.
(#14) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 06:32PM 01-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPRNTW*) |
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Borley Rectory was built by Rev. Henry Bull, and was destroyed by fire in 1939.
(Click here) http://www.borleyrectory.com Borley Recory mean haunted house. |
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2002 hurricane season
(#15) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 08:53AM 02-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPRNUT*) |
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Atlantic hurricane seasons on the record !!!
1912- Titanic 1914- 0 hurricanes 1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes 2002- 4 hurricanes or more If we see 4 hurricanes or more in Atlantic basin this year then Bull was real too!!! |
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Dr. Gray said
(#16) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 02:52PM 02-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPRNSV*) |
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Hurricane activity has been on the rise since the 1995 season, Gray said.
(Click here)http://www.usatoday.com/hurricane/stories/2001/2001-12-07-gray-2002-forecast.htm |
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Sorry, Try again
(#17) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 03:02PM 02-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPRNSV*) |
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Hurricane activity has been on the rise since the 1995, Gray said.
(Click here)http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/stories/2001/2001-12-07-gray-2002-forecast.htm |
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Bull's haunted house
(#18) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 02:00PM 03-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*) |
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Bull had about 30 cats! WOW
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ENSO starting to develop a little quicker...at least it seems.
(#19) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 02:26PM 03-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXRNQXS*) |
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The anomalies off of the South American coast are starting to get warmer...lots of yellow. It's also in the form of a "tongue", what an El Nino's signature should look like. It will be a slow process, though. Still I think it will have little affect on hurricane season. March 20th is near, and that's when sun comes above equator. SSTA's are warm now you think...well wait till then. Waters will really start to boil then. Look for more warming off of the U.S. coast, too. QBO winds are averaging neutral to slightly easterly, expect those to go westerly soon.
Regards, *Kevin* |
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cut off
(#20) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 03:36PM 03-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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nice cut off low out in the central atlantic spinning up, some convection. medium range models have a bevy of these features rolling along underneath the big ridge out in the atlantic.. sort of thing that would perk interest in november or may, but just an interesting maritime feature in march. also of note: eastern ridge should warm things up by late week, but still pointing to more arctic air spilling down in the long range.. what was it that punxsatawney phil said back in feb?
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Hi All!!
(#21) Posted by: TropicalWxWatcher Posted On 09:35PM 03-Mar-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWQNWQ*) |
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This is my first time posting here at CFHC. I just finished reading some of yall's posts and they were qiuet interesting. I will start posting more often as the season approaches! One question... does anyone chat in the chat room?
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Whats up
(#22) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:14AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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Whats up all been a while huh last time i posted i think it was olga well ne way this year florida is |={_}c| |
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Whats up
(#23) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:14AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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Whats up all been a while huh last time i posted i think it was olga well ne way this year florida is |={_}c| |
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Whats up
(#24) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:15AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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Whats up all been a while huh last time i posted i think it was olga well ne way this year florida is , (bare with me) The past seven years something has been happening record numbers of storms wierd changes nothing knew. At the end of the 99 season evryone started talking about this azor bermuda high moving west. this west movment was supposed to drive the hurricanes further west and give florida all the storms. well most of you think what are they talking calling people nuts last season well guess what it did happen 2 season in a row one with 2 strikes in a row not us but cozumel mexico they got hit buy 2 cat 4's back to back season and a one strong tropical storm. Keith 2001 140mph next season within a hundred miles chantel with 70 mph 2 months later an almost excact plot of keiths track 145mph triple concentric eyewall keith rolled through there. Now i dont no about all of you but that isnt normal that happend becuse the azore bermuda high was there. during the 1930's when you look back at records of when this pattern was last around you can almost depict the same thing happening the real activity happend down in mexico with the occasional one breaking through. (sorry for the jumpiness) in fact the past 2 seasons scence this supposed shift there has been shear murduring any storm that actully posed a threat to florida so no ventelation has happend in 3 years in the waters close to the coast and in the bahamas its been 10 years there are large pulls that just get trapped in there just warming up in some places aka tongu of the ocean these spotts will be thise things that just suddenly and viloently increase a hurricanes's streangth aka andrew and keith (on an interesting note keith and andrew were very familliar in that both of them were incredibly small and both strengthend violently at landfall and continued strengthening well inland) well ne ways this is the first year in wich there might be a weak el nino in the picture last time we saw this was 97 then it was la nina i have come to my conclusion la nina may make lots a of canes but it isnt what causes us strikes. La nina is a are saving grase this will be the first year with this knew higg pressure set up that will have to possibility of a weak el nino, evrything else remaining the same and favorable as we all belive will be the case leaves me to belive that it is the weak el that evryone thinks will have little or no effect on the strength and activity of this season that will allow the big one to roll through. its the only important change that i have noticed that will stop the big one from getting shreded apart.
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aaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
(#25) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:18AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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no matter how much you try to it right you always screw up
corecting up top Keith 2000 140mph next season within a hundred miles chantel with 70 mph 2 months later an almost excact plot of keiths track 145mph triple concentric eyewall iris rolled through there |
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Alright
(#26) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:35AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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LOL umm did ne one else cath on the fact that the storm of the century was in 93 not 92??
Just thought id let you no still got one more year till the tenth aniversary |
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92 / 93
(#27) Posted by: John C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL Posted On 12:33PM 04-Mar-2002 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNQVY*) |
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Will correct. Thanks!
TropicalWXwatcher to answer you question on the chat room. Your welcome to schedule and use the chatroom at any time. It normally will only get used during big events like an approaching Hurricane or something of the sort. |
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cut off
(#28) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 03:50PM 04-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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man.. that thing is around 18/50. way WAY out of the westerlies. dying down now, but very weird to get a cold low running that deep into the tropics. at least i think it is? something like that in may and we have an early season storm.. see if it happens again. as for the old 12-8-4 prediction, i'm not going to change it.. but starting to think that it will be slightly high if anything.
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Did you know?
(#29) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 09:10AM 05-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVT*) |
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Montana is our 41st state. Montana comes from Spanish word meaning "mountainous."
( Not english word ) |
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How Strange Thou Atlantic Art???
(#30) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 10:23AM 05-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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You would think you were looking at a spring/summer map. Several areas of cyclonic turning/disturbed weather. 1st approaching 40W/38N moving SW; 2nd at about 38W/6N; and the 3rd that HF mentioned the other day (I thinks) NE of the Virgin islands. All are tracking in a westward direction. Things to Come or just timing and synergy out of wack. Was a funny winter, gonna be a funny spring, will it be a funny hhurricane season....maybe not so funny. Too early for me to try a forecast. Cheers!!q
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Tropics are priming...
(#31) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 07:10PM 05-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXRNQUU*) |
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for what I think will be an active an very dangerous season. Looked at the satellite...and there seems to quite a bit of convection in tropical atlantic for this time of the year. As HankFrank has been saying...we may get a May storm this year. I think it's possible too, so we'll watch for it.
BTW...TSR (tropical storm risk) updates their forecast tommorrow. Website is www.tsr.com. Go to Atlantic forecast (6 Mar. update) and look at it. You'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view it. *Kevin* |
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What's up?
(#32) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie Posted On 12:06AM 06-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNRUS*) |
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The countdown's on. Hopefully we've seen the last of the winter here. N.O. had a couple of early warm spells, but this is the coldest and longest winter I can remember. I'd have to double check, but I'd bet 85% of the days so far in 2002 have been below normal. (And I hate the winter anyway). While we might still see some 60's days (avg. is 68-69), it looks like we've reached the end of the 40's and 50's highs. That's always a good sign - see ya in November!
I'll be looking for the tsr update tomorrow. Dr. Gray will be out in another month with his early April update. Bastardi will have his stuff up probably right after that. Hey, we're almost to training camp 2002. I don't know about a May ts this year, it's always possible. But I do think this will be a violent spring across the plains and the south. We had a 3 year drought that we're out of now by about 12-14 months. Usually the rains follow for several years. Check the upper pattern a few days after this weekend's front comes through and it might give some early indications to where the transitional battles will be fought in April and May. L8R, Steve |
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spring
(#33) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 12:41AM 06-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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if things dont change too much yes this could be a stormy spring. the tendency over the winter was for a fast storm track straight across the country, not much blocking or arctic invasion.. therefore it was warmer relative to normal to the north, cooler in the south. if the fast storm track persists into the spring, increased solar flux will cause these quick storms to be violent rather than just rainy.
anyhow, not saying i think we will have a may storm. just saying it hasnt happened in a really long time and has some catching up to do. the onset of el nino will probably signal a hot summer for the south, also. more high latitude development. and such. another westpac super typhoon this time of year may also be signaling a less active atlantic season. |
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tsr.com
(#34) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 11:07AM 06-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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http://www.tropicalstormrisk.net/
Is the actual link. The February update is still there, so we'll have to wait a few more hours for the update. L8R, Steve |
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So here's what Tropical Storm Risk has to say in their 3/6/ update...
(#35) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 12:27PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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"TSR reduces slightly its earlier forecasts but still anticipates an active 2002 Atlantic Hurricane Season with basin storm numbers and strikes on the USA and Caribbean Lesser Antilles being 0-10% above the 10 year average and 20-30% above the 30 year average."
IH - 2.8 (+/- 1.9) HC - 7.2 (+/- 2.5) TS - 12.5 (+/- 3.6) Forming in MDR 10N - 20N, 20W - 60W), Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: IH 2.8 HC 5.4 TS 9.3 US Landfalling Numbers HC 1.7 TS 3.5 "The key factors behind our forecast for an active season in 2002 are the anticipated enhancing effects of July-Sept. forecast 925mb U (east/west) winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical north Atlantic region (7.5N - 17.5N, 30W -100W) and of August-September forecast SST for the Atlantic MDR. The current forecast anomalies (1972-2001 climatology) for these predictors are 0.49+/-0.84ms-1 and 0.22+/-0.24 celsius respetively. Their next update will be 4/5/2002. Regular monthly updates will follow through to early 8/02. L8R, Steve |
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I Can't get the Update......
(#36) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 01:01PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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at the site yet. Did they reduce the number of total storms and hurricanes?? Thanks in Advance.
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James Lee Witt said.
(#37) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 05:51PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQVT*) |
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Atlantic basin: "We can't reduce the number of hurricanes. But we can reduce the impact they have on our lives." Witt said.
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James Lee Witt
(#38) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:51PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQXT*) |
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James Lee Witt is 57 year old. I think
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RIght You Are John/James
(#39) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 07:30AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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I should've worded the question, "What did Tropical Storm Risk (UK) reduce their Forecast number of storms to be" ...I still can't click on the March 6th update to access their discussion...Cheers!!
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2002 Atlantic hurricane season
(#40) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 08:25AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*) |
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12 more hurricanes to go !!! LOL
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Steve
(#41) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 09:21AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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It's all in my post - #36 or #37.
L8R, Steve |
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2002
(#42) Posted by: doug Location: tampa Posted On 11:59AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (VUNSTNVVNRTX*) |
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I basically agree with HankFrank...looks like an el nino pattern setting up...another UL low spreading thunder bumpers across south Fla today, we haven't witnessed that stuff since the last el nino...and this is the third system of this sort in the last two weeks or so rainfall is increasing above the last three year pattern which isn't all that bad...
but IF el nino builds, look for fewer storms in the Atlantic... and what was with the wespac storm last week very unusual... |
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El Nino
(#43) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 03:55PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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NOAA came out today with the call that we are in El Nino. CNN did an oversensationalized piece on it with only a one sentence blurb that "it will be milder than the 97-98 event."
Of course that means warmer and wetter winters for us Gulf Coasters, which for my money, beats the stuffing out of this year's winter. L8R, Steve |
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ENSO disclaimer
(#44) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 04:58PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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sort of annoying how when noaa releases a document saying we may be entering an el nino phase, every media outlet starts releasing dramatic stories about how huge pacific storms will pound california; floods in peru, drought in australia and indonesia, and massive global death and destruction are imminent. and then, when el nino goes away, the story is la nina, and huge violent hurricanes will ravage the east coast.
as a side note they mention that the ENSO event probably wont be that strong, and nothing should be that out of the ordinary. personally i ignore almost everything the media says in relation to weather and climate. el nino is normal, it always has to be in one mode or another, only dramatic on occasion. global warming--same. the earth warms up and cools down in long cycles, always has, always will. if greenhouse gases make it warmer, so what. better to have palm trees in maine than glaciers in ohio. its been both ways before. by the way, nhc website has been updated. or is being updated. looks different, check it out. |
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I agree about the El Nino talk.
(#45) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 05:42PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXSNQYT*) |
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So, Noaa said we're in El Nino, huh? Hell...watch the waters start cooling now...two months later: We are back in La Nina! (LOL!) Ah, anyways, it will be MUCH milder than the 97-98 event. Besides, the global climate pattern still looks a bit more like La Nina. Don't expect a mild hurricane season because of El Nino. In fact...it could be a lot like a La Nina is actually in place until late September, which is after the peak anyways. It'll be interesting to see what Noaa says about the hurricane season in May...I certainly think it will look very strange...El Nino in pacific, but still a rough hurricane season.
*Kevin* |
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Don't forget
(#46) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 05:57PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTW*) |
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There were more hurricanes in Atlantic basin than East Pacific last year ( 2001 ).
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El Nino and also post #42
(#47) Posted by: Bill Posted On 11:18AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPTNQQPNRQRNXR*) |
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It's important to remember that while the generally accepted wisdom is that El Nino reduced hurricane activity, there are exceptions...1969 was a bumper crop year AND a strong el nino year too. Wonder what it would have been like had there been NO El Nino that year.
I just wondered what post #42 was referring to about an 'odd' wespac storm? IHS, Charles |
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El Nino and also post #42
(#48) Posted by: Bill Posted On 11:18AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPTNQQPNRQRNXR*) |
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It's important to remember that while the generally accepted wisdom is that El Nino reduced hurricane activity, there are exceptions...1969 was a bumper crop year AND a strong el nino year too. Wonder what it would have been like had there been NO El Nino that year.
I just wondered what post #42 was referring to about an 'odd' wespac storm? IHS, Bill |
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Post #42
(#49) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 11:30AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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There was a typhoon that Bastardi has been referring to that's getting entrained in a trof coming into the US. I haven't looked at any sat photos since October, so I haven't been following it.
Steve |
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wespac storm; post 42
(#50) Posted by: doug Location: tampa Posted On 11:57AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (VUNSTNVVNRTX*) |
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an intense typhoon that is recurving to NE away from the Phillipines...odd in two respects...time of year and intensity. By the way all the mets are picking up on El-Nino.
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TC Hary
(#51) Posted by: Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK Posted On 12:53PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RQSNQNQWQNXU*) |
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Currently off the NW coast of Madagascar, with winds near 115 mph, with higher gusts. The cyclone is forecast to move closer to Madagascar and intensify, giving the northeast coast of the Island a glancing blow on the 10th March with current forecast sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts to 195 mph!
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EL NINO
(#52) Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD Posted On 03:34PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPS*) |
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For those who have read Dr. Grey's Dec. forecast he states that during a Westerly QBO phase, there tends not to be as strong an El NINO as with other phases. Mostly a weak to moderate El Nino is expected between Aug.-Sept 2002.In his Dec. forecast, he has ENSO put into his equation and still is calling for 12 named storms.All other indices look strong for a banner year in 2002. Will have to wait and see......q
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hate to wait, lol
(#53) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:54PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUQ*) |
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There are 12 more weeks until 2002 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Very strange hurricane season this year!; Post #45
(#54) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 09:19PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUQ*) |
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Yes, I agree with you!, Kevin
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CAT 5 hurricane
(#55) Posted by: Robert Posted On 12:31AM 10-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSRNRQXNWY*) |
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That hurricane that was down by madagascar is now a cat 5 about a 100 miles off the coast with 140knt winds gusting to 170knts and it may hit the island?
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Ripley's believe it or not!
(#57) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 11:31PM 10-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNYVNQP*) |
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Atlantic hurricane seasons on record !!
1912- Titanic 1914- 0 hurricanes 1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes Increase in hurricanes expected ! We will see 4 hurricanes or more in Atlantic basin each year ! |
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BULL and his family
(#58) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 11:38PM 10-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNYVNQP*) |
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Borley Rectory mean Bull's haunted house in England from 1863 to 1927!
(Click here) http://www.borleyrectory.com/ |
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Don't forget!
(#59) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:13PM 11-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVX*) |
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There are 3 ripley's museums in Florida too
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Excuse me
(#60) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 12:27PM 12-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*) |
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La nina (March 2002)
( Click here ) http://www.elnino.gov/lanina.html |
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http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html
(#61) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 12:37PM 12-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*) |
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(click here)
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html |
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EL NINO VS. NEUTRAL
(#62) Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD Posted On 08:50PM 12-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUY*) |
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Why on the NOAA SST anomalies page it looks like a mild El Nino while CPC's page the SST looks more neutal leaning towards La Nina
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