 March |
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On the 13th of March Jim Williams and Barometer Bob will be doing an audio broadcast on the 10th anniversary of the 1993 Storm of the Century. Check it out. - [jc] |
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2002
(#42) Posted by: doug Location: tampa Posted On 11:59AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (VUNSTNVVNRTX*) |
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I basically agree with HankFrank...looks like an el nino pattern setting up...another UL low spreading thunder bumpers across south Fla today, we haven't witnessed that stuff since the last el nino...and this is the third system of this sort in the last two weeks or so rainfall is increasing above the last three year pattern which isn't all that bad...
but IF el nino builds, look for fewer storms in the Atlantic... and what was with the wespac storm last week very unusual... |
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El Nino
(#43) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 03:55PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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NOAA came out today with the call that we are in El Nino. CNN did an oversensationalized piece on it with only a one sentence blurb that "it will be milder than the 97-98 event."
Of course that means warmer and wetter winters for us Gulf Coasters, which for my money, beats the stuffing out of this year's winter. L8R, Steve |
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ENSO disclaimer
(#44) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 04:58PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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sort of annoying how when noaa releases a document saying we may be entering an el nino phase, every media outlet starts releasing dramatic stories about how huge pacific storms will pound california; floods in peru, drought in australia and indonesia, and massive global death and destruction are imminent. and then, when el nino goes away, the story is la nina, and huge violent hurricanes will ravage the east coast.
as a side note they mention that the ENSO event probably wont be that strong, and nothing should be that out of the ordinary. personally i ignore almost everything the media says in relation to weather and climate. el nino is normal, it always has to be in one mode or another, only dramatic on occasion. global warming--same. the earth warms up and cools down in long cycles, always has, always will. if greenhouse gases make it warmer, so what. better to have palm trees in maine than glaciers in ohio. its been both ways before. by the way, nhc website has been updated. or is being updated. looks different, check it out. |
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I agree about the El Nino talk.
(#45) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 05:42PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXSNQYT*) |
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So, Noaa said we're in El Nino, huh? Hell...watch the waters start cooling now...two months later: We are back in La Nina! (LOL!) Ah, anyways, it will be MUCH milder than the 97-98 event. Besides, the global climate pattern still looks a bit more like La Nina. Don't expect a mild hurricane season because of El Nino. In fact...it could be a lot like a La Nina is actually in place until late September, which is after the peak anyways. It'll be interesting to see what Noaa says about the hurricane season in May...I certainly think it will look very strange...El Nino in pacific, but still a rough hurricane season.
*Kevin* |
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Don't forget
(#46) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 05:57PM 07-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNTW*) |
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There were more hurricanes in Atlantic basin than East Pacific last year ( 2001 ).
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El Nino and also post #42
(#47) Posted by: Bill Posted On 11:18AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPTNQQPNRQRNXR*) |
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It's important to remember that while the generally accepted wisdom is that El Nino reduced hurricane activity, there are exceptions...1969 was a bumper crop year AND a strong el nino year too. Wonder what it would have been like had there been NO El Nino that year.
I just wondered what post #42 was referring to about an 'odd' wespac storm? IHS, Charles |
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El Nino and also post #42
(#48) Posted by: Bill Posted On 11:18AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPTNQQPNRQRNXR*) |
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It's important to remember that while the generally accepted wisdom is that El Nino reduced hurricane activity, there are exceptions...1969 was a bumper crop year AND a strong el nino year too. Wonder what it would have been like had there been NO El Nino that year.
I just wondered what post #42 was referring to about an 'odd' wespac storm? IHS, Bill |
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Post #42
(#49) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 11:30AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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There was a typhoon that Bastardi has been referring to that's getting entrained in a trof coming into the US. I haven't looked at any sat photos since October, so I haven't been following it.
Steve |
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wespac storm; post 42
(#50) Posted by: doug Location: tampa Posted On 11:57AM 08-Mar-2002 with id (VUNSTNVVNRTX*) |
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an intense typhoon that is recurving to NE away from the Phillipines...odd in two respects...time of year and intensity. By the way all the mets are picking up on El-Nino.
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TC Hary
(#51) Posted by: Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK Posted On 12:53PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RQSNQNQWQNXU*) |
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Currently off the NW coast of Madagascar, with winds near 115 mph, with higher gusts. The cyclone is forecast to move closer to Madagascar and intensify, giving the northeast coast of the Island a glancing blow on the 10th March with current forecast sustained winds of 150 mph and gusts to 195 mph!
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EL NINO
(#52) Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD Posted On 03:34PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPS*) |
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For those who have read Dr. Grey's Dec. forecast he states that during a Westerly QBO phase, there tends not to be as strong an El NINO as with other phases. Mostly a weak to moderate El Nino is expected between Aug.-Sept 2002.In his Dec. forecast, he has ENSO put into his equation and still is calling for 12 named storms.All other indices look strong for a banner year in 2002. Will have to wait and see......q
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hate to wait, lol
(#53) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:54PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUQ*) |
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There are 12 more weeks until 2002 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Very strange hurricane season this year!; Post #45
(#54) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 09:19PM 08-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUQ*) |
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Yes, I agree with you!, Kevin
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CAT 5 hurricane
(#55) Posted by: Robert Posted On 12:31AM 10-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSRNRQXNWY*) |
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That hurricane that was down by madagascar is now a cat 5 about a 100 miles off the coast with 140knt winds gusting to 170knts and it may hit the island?
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Ripley's believe it or not!
(#57) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 11:31PM 10-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNYVNQP*) |
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Atlantic hurricane seasons on record !!
1912- Titanic 1914- 0 hurricanes 1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes Increase in hurricanes expected ! We will see 4 hurricanes or more in Atlantic basin each year ! |
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BULL and his family
(#58) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 11:38PM 10-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNYVNQP*) |
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Borley Rectory mean Bull's haunted house in England from 1863 to 1927!
(Click here) http://www.borleyrectory.com/ |
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Don't forget!
(#59) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:13PM 11-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNVX*) |
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There are 3 ripley's museums in Florida too
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Excuse me
(#60) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 12:27PM 12-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*) |
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La nina (March 2002)
( Click here ) http://www.elnino.gov/lanina.html |
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http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html
(#61) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 12:37PM 12-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*) |
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(click here)
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html |
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EL NINO VS. NEUTRAL
(#62) Posted by: LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD Posted On 08:50PM 12-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUY*) |
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Why on the NOAA SST anomalies page it looks like a mild El Nino while CPC's page the SST looks more neutal leaning towards La Nina
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