CFHC Talkback For News Story #78:
Newest Talkback: 10:34 PM 09-01 EDT

No Development this Weekend
05:02 AM EDT - 01 September 2000

I don't see anything happening for this weekend, maybe into next week a little, but until then enjoy the weekend.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #20 - #40 (of 40 total)
Dvorak Current Intensity Unchanged (#20)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:19PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQQV*)

No increase in sat derived winds past 9 hrs. No storm yet.

TPNT KGWC 011931

A. DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC

B. 01/1831Z (100)

C. 15.7N/3

D. 46.0W/0

E. SIX/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0 09HRS -01/1831Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION MEASURES .30 DEGREES ON LOG10. FT

BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS ANALYSIS.

Thanks, Gary!!! (#21)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:34PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRV*)

no message, except of course, THANK YOU.
Dvorak (#22)
Posted by: Jerry Location: Bonita Springs
Posted On 04:48PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (SXNQWWNQWVNR*)

Check out the 20:15UTC Dvorak
Dvorak (#23)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:58PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Would love to Jerry, where is it?

IHS,

Bill
Please? Jerry? (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:00PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQVX*)

Give us a hint...up/down/gone/ what? LOL!! From what I just read, the NEW thinking is that this system won't make it...call it the Debby Lesson. Jees, when will I ever learn!!!!
Movement (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:01PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

And looking at the Dvoraks seesm storm is moving NW already, or is just reforming further to the NW. look at the two posted on here so far.

IHS,

Bill
New center? (#26)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:13PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Looks like "TD 8" is trying a new strategy to deal with the shear...a new center seesm to be forming near 16/46, and it is looking (at least on the short-term) on the upswing, but either it is moving NW/NNW or it is just a relocation.

The cloud signature suggests it is moving NW. If the new intensification/reorganization trend continues, even if it isn't upgraded momentarily, it may be tonight.

We will see!

IHS,

Bill
Uh, Bill? Did you TAKE my Crystal Ball? (#27)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:20PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTY*)

I think you should read the new TWO from the NHC...YOU ARE RIGHT ON. Do you work there? Are you a plant? A fern? What?

You are GOOD.
Thank you Colleen! (#28)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:23PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Just reading my satpics ma'am..been doing it for a LONG time..btw, I am looking all over for the TWO, where do you get it so early, if you don't mind my asking, ma'am.

IHS,

Bill
Found TWO on UM site (#29)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:27PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Colleen-

you just read faster than I do!

Again, thannks.

A TD is forming, we will see how long it takes NHC to formalize that.

If it is heading NW, doubt they will do anything until the next TWO/11pm.

IHS,

Bill
Bill, Now I Am LOL!!! (#30)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:28PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTY*)

Bill, my dear friend, read the top of the page here...it was out about 20 minutes early!!!! I am not laughing at you, just everything!!! Read my post to you on Mike's site...I think you will like it...by the way...anyone (CALLING GARY, AGAIN) have the 20:15 Dvorak's yet
Dvorak and other satellite pics (#31)
Posted by: Jerry Location: Bonita Springs
Posted On 05:33PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (SXNQWWNQWVNR*)

The Dvorak can be found at www.hurricanewarning.net/satellite.html in the GOES 8 floater section, but you have to come back here for the good conversations (that's a plug for John and Mike...good site!)
DUH! (#32)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:39PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Well, I was so busy looking FAR AWAY at the satpics, I didn't think to look at the top of the page!

The forest for the trees...:)

IHS,

Bill
Hmmmm (#33)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:45PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

This is the third time I have posted a message thanking Jerry, and every time I look after posting it is there, when I come back it is gone..alert, C bros!

IHS,

Bill
Yes, and Mine too! (#34)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:58PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVV*)

I just posted a reply thanking Jerry for the link (which I still don't know how to read..help please) and it didn't post either....Jerry, could you tell me what the T's are please
Reading Dvorak T #s (#35)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:12PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Colleen-

the explanation of how to read the numbers is at the link Jerry cited, under the Goes Floater section.

IHS,

Bill
Dvorak #s? (#36)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 07:45PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRQXNUVNQPX*)

Okay I see where you find out how to read the Dvorak #'s but where does one find the #s? Sorry if I've missed the obvious. -Thanks.

-Andy
Dvorak Numbers (#37)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:04PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNUU*)

Andy et al:
From Dr Chris Landsea's FAQ on Hurricanes

CI Number Maximum Sustained One Minute Winds (kts) Central Pressure (mb)
Atlantic NW Pacific
0.0 <25 ---- ----
0.5 25 ---- ----
1.0 25 ---- ----
1.5 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858


Note that this estimation of both maximum winds and central pressure assumes that the winds and pressures are always consistent. However, since the winds are really determined by the pressure gradient, small tropical cyclones (like the Atlantic's Andrew in 1992, for example) can have stronger winds for a given central pressure than a larger tropical cyclone with the same central pressure. Thus caution is urged in not blindly forcing tropical cyclones to "fit" the above pressure- wind relationships. (The reason that lower pressures are given to the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in comparison to the higher pressures of the Atlantic basin tropical cyclones is because of the difference in the background climatology. The Northwest Pacific basin has a lower background sea level pressure field. Thus to sustain a given pressure gradient and thus the winds, the central pressure must accordingly be smaller in this basin.)

The errors for using the above Dvorak technique in comparison to aircraft measurements taken in the Northwest Pacific average 10 mb with a standard deviation of 9 mb (Martin and Gray 1993). Atlantic tropical cyclone estimates likely have similar errors. Thus an Atlantic hurricane that is given a CI number of 4.5 (winds of 77 kt and pressure of 979 mb) could in reality be anywhere from winds of 60 to 90 kt and pressures of 989 to 969 mb. These would be typical ranges to be expected; errors could be worse. However, in the absence of other observations, the Dvorak technique does at least provide a consistent estimate of what the true intensity is.

While the Dvorak technique was calibrated for the Atlantic and Northwest Pacific basin because of the aircraft reconnaissance data ground truth, the technique has also been quite useful in other basins that have limited observational platforms. However, at some point it would be preferable to re-derive the Dvorak technique to calibrate tropical cyclones with available data in the other basins.

Lastly, while the Dvorak technique is primarily designed to provide estimates of the current intensity of the storm, a 24 h forecast of the intensity can be obtained also by extrapolating the trend of the CI number. Whether this methodology provides skillful forecasts is unknown.

Cheers,
ED
gary's kid (#38)
Posted by: Missina (http://theflbettaroom.homestead.com/) Location: Hernadobeach
Posted On 09:22PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNUNRSX*)

hi all, Im gary's daghter and over this weekend if you would like to get a hold of him you can email me and I will drag him over to my home were I have the internet, but soon he will have the internet to. I dont know much about weather but thats what my dad if for:)

missina
Dvorak #s (#39)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 09:40PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRQXNUVNQPX*)

Actually I was hoping for the site (URL) that would show the Dvorak #s for the current entities in the Atlantic. Sorry for the confusion. Thanks Again.

-Andy
TD #8 (#40)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:34PM 01-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRV*)

Tropical Depression #8 has finally been declared at 10:30 EDT. Advisories will begin at 11pm. This should have been done at 5pm, but time will tell where he is going and if he will move WNW through the shear, which at last look appeared to be lessening.
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