CFHC Talkback For News Story #81:
Newest Talkback: 04:57 PM 09-05 EDT

Ernesto and Shear
09:50 AM EDT - 03 September 2000

What originally made me go with the prediction of no named storms this weekend was the fact that shear was still pretty bad in the area that Ernesto was trying to form. It managed to anyway, but since then has been barely holding on. It's a definite fish spinner system as it heads toward that direction.

More interesting to me is the system in the Central East Atlantic that could form sometime this week. We'll wait and see.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 23 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #26 (of 26 total)
Yup (#6)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 06:50PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVNWWNQVR*)

I think JJ's right, since shear destroyed Chris, Debby, and Ernesto. Is that going to change some time soon?
The system in The Central-East Atlantic looks so elongated. I've never heard of a Cyclone going into South America before, but looks like it could. Could it pass over the Antillies and move west south of Jamaica; and get in the gulf in the long run?
The system in the gulf seems very circular but weak.

Darcy


Systems in tropical central Atlantic (#7)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 07:06PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Darcy-

Some systems have hit South America-
the last (named) one was in 1989 I believe, did terrible damage due to rains in Venezuela, and went on to hit Nicaraugau as a Cat 3 or 4 system. Joan, or was it Bret> I don't remember at the moment. It crossed almost all of northern SA as a tropical storm.

The system you mentioned is not likely to shear out like the other three, because it is at such a low latitude. It has an impressive ciculation, but, like an ice skater pulling his/her arms in to spin faster, so the system must do to develop.
Looks like it will develop, and yes, coming in so low, could end up in the Gulf.

Time will tell!

IHS,

Bill
South American Storms (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 10:18PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXX*)

Joan in 1988, Bret in 1993, and Cesar in 1996 all at least grazed the South American coast. All were destructive storms, as well. Fran in 1990 dissipated just short of the coast.
Interesting (#9)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 10:23PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNQTP*)

Thanks!
As you can see, I'm an amature with a storm interest in Ontario, Canada.
I enjoy getting leftovers of hurricanes like we've had Fran ands Opal.
I live on Lake Huron.

Atlantic (#10)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 10:48PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNRY*)

Looks like this system is pulling itself together, and the one in the gulf is dying.


flash in the pan (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 08:44PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hmm.. seems ernesto came and went while i was on a labor day trip. looks like i didnt miss much. havent we already seen that play this year? deja vu, chris. well, chris had its debby, maybe ernesto will have its florence. the trailing wave/low looks pretty ripe, if it will ever get organized. with that surface trough lingering in the gulf and the new front settling in, there might be one of those close-in gulf storms this week, also. money is on the wave 2-3 days out from the islands, though. that should be our florence, whenever it decides that the freebie upper high outflow and persistent convection merit a defined surface low. by the way, jj, you know your stuff with the history. always have a less than flashy outlook on development, always seem to go with the less hyped forecast. hey, it's working this year so far. when was the last time we made it to september without a u.s. tropical cyclone landfall? 1990? its been a while. this season is just goofy and weird.
Central Atlantic (#12)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 11:32PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSTNQRS*)

I am somewhat surprised that the TPC did not classify the central atlantic system as a TD at 11:00 pm. This system has shown a ball of convection near the center of circulation all day today. In fact, as the day has progressed, it appears that this system has become better organized. As of now, the outflow is covering a very large area on all sides. I think this will be Florence in the days to come.
Central Atlantic (#13)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 11:43PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSTNQRS*)

I am somewhat surprised that the TPC did not classify the central atlantic system as a TD at 11:00 pm. This system has shown a ball of convection near the center of circulation all day today. In fact, as the day has progressed, it appears that this system has become better organized. As of now, the outflow is covering a very large area on all sides. I think this will be Florence in the days to come.
Central Atlantic System (#14)
Posted by: StormHound Location: O-Town
Posted On 12:13AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRPYNQRWNQRP*)

Mitch, I'm with you all the way. The last few hours in particular, this system seems to have sucked in the rather large disturbance area into a much more concentrated area. This trend seems to be continuing even into the night. We'll have to see how she looks in the morning.
Spinup off of Carolinas (#15)
Posted by: randy
Posted On 08:12AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSXNRSRNXS*)

WV shows a nice spin to the area off to the SE of the carolinas. Any comments or observations?
Location (#16)
Posted by: randy
Posted On 08:14AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSXNRSRNXS*)

That area off the SE of the Carolinas is about 28/73
Location (#17)
Posted by: randy
Posted On 08:15AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSXNRSRNXS*)

That's about 28/73
Re: Central Atlantic Wave (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:30AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQVS*)

I think the reason it was not classified was that the bulk of people at NHC were off yesterday, look for it at 11:00AM or I will eat crow. Guess what? I have eaten quite a bit of it lately, it's really not all that bad!!!!! LOL!!! Colleen
Florence? (#19)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 08:30AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNWV*)

Hello All,
Satellite pictures show a strong tropical wave this mourning 950 miles west of the Carribean Islands but what it does not show is a low level circulation. There is a broad area of low pressure at 14n..46 west at around 1010mb but most of the convection is west of the center. I do forsee this system to develope into a Depression by late today or early tommorow. Its path shopuld be north of the islands moving nw over time. Right now I don't see this system being a U.S. threat at all...
Frank/1990 season no landfall (#20)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:59AM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Hi Frank-

TS Marco landfalled on the west coast of Fl/Panhandle as a weak ts that yr.

Last time with no landfall...hmmm

....91?

don't rememerb actually!

IHS,

Bill

agree with Scott on incipient td, they may upgrade at 11...but convection is east of the center, there is a good circ however. They are making that call right now, I'd say 50/50 upgrade at 11.

Time will tell!

IHS,

Bill


Would You Like a Little Salt with Those Feathers? (#21)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 12:31PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQUX*)

If you were referring to 11:00 am. The storm upgrade did not come. That little stinker is playing games again. Well, that is the norm for this season I guess. LOL
No Flo yet (#22)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 01:26PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

Does anyone think that the forcasters are reluctent to name any storm's because of what
Debby did? I mean we have had a few that were
borderline. What does everyone else think?
Florence? (#23)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:54PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNTR*)

Hello All,
This tropical wave has become a little ragged over the last 12 hours. The NHC feels there is no or very weak surface feature present and the thunderstorms have moved away from the center so I don't see a TD today. It is moving more to the w-nw to nw and this motion should continue today. The wind shear to its west continues to weaken so this still has a chance to develope but I don't feel it will be today. I still see no evidence this system what ever it becomes will make it to the U.S. but the Carribean Islands still need to watch for some development.
2:05 TWD (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:49PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTX*)

They mentioned that this system is now showing a LLCC on visible imagery.

Mary...pass the salt; however, I am saving one wing for tomorrow just in case.
by now.. (#25)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:34PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

yah bill, youre right about marco.. but i was considering marco. cant exactly forget that storm, cause it dropped like 20" of rain on the town i lived in at the time. marco came ashore on about october 10th/11th. all i was saying was that usually by this time of year we've had at least a weak t.s. come into the u.s. itd happened by now in every year last decade except 1990. wasnt '91, remember bob? 1990 was just plain unique, considering that there were 14 named storms and only one of them crossed the u.s. coastline, fairly late in the season. lots of eye candy, not many people hurt.
well, nuff history junk, how about this annoyingly hesitant system around 16N/49W? nobody is quoting the dvorak #s on it, and im not sure how to dig them up. i can see the llcc (llccs? sw/ne?) which they wont call a depression.. that thing has to be stirring up 30-35mph winds. the ne spin is kicking up convection, too. i guess it's still being rated a 1.5..?. like chris, debby, and ernesto.. this one is forming at a delayed pace. the bandwagon seems to be for northerly movement, but when i look at the surface forecast maps i see a big ridge merging to the north.. so whatever does spin up--im reckoning will at least move northwest a good deal of the time. maybe i'm confusing models and run times, but i recall a lot of diversity in how the east coast trough will evolve this week.. anybody know the thinking on how would-be florence may move? somebody inform me, tell me if the picture in my head makes sense. im thinking a zigzag..south of bermuda to the northwest.. for some reason. well, thats assuming that the shear monster doesnt have this one for dinner like the predecessors..
hey, its almost 5pm. cant see how they WONT upgrade it. its banding for crying out loud..
Frank (#26)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:57PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVX*)

You are right, they are still saying it's a 1.5/1.5..on the same page, however, they have TS Kristy? I think in the Pacific at 3.5/3.5 and don't have her named either, although we know she is there...I have had my fill of crow this season and I am shutting up as to when they name her/it/whatever. Although they mention a LLCC now visible on the 2:00pm TWD (HELLO?) and you can clearly see it now, it wouldn't surprise me at all if this thing turned out to be a huge snowstorm in the Atlantic..LOL...we shall see!!!!
Show All Comments | Show Previous 23 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page