CFHC Talkback For News Story #82:
Newest Talkback: 12:32 PM 09-06 EDT

Nothing Threatening
05:41 PM EDT - 05 September 2000

Amazingly, there still isn't all that much to talk about this week. Labor Day weekend had Ernesto come and go without a problem. And this week the waves have persisted, but have not strengthen. We still may see a depression this week, but once again nothing immediately threatening anywhere. Interesting, it is, being nearly the peak of the season (15th).

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 20 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #3 - #23 (of 23 total)
bugg off tommy (#3)
Posted by: ...
Posted On 07:44PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNSVNRQRNVT*)

bug off
Hey Tommy (#4)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay
Posted On 07:58PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTQ*)

The rainstorms out there are a potential risk to hit the US as tropical cyclones when they're travelling west ward this time of year. That's why there is concern during hurricane season. Anyhow, even if I was hoping for it to hit your neighborhood, I have little control over that. What a shame. Take up bowling or darts, stop annoying people, particularly where you can't add any value. Cheers!
RE: Question (#5)
Posted by: StormHound Location: O-Town/FL
Posted On 08:01PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXQNRU*)

Very good question Tommy. The answer is, yes, every storm has the potential to hit the U.S. Some just have higher probabilities than others.
cheers to steve!!!!!!!!!! (#6)
Posted by: tonya Location: wilmer, alabama
Posted On 08:41PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWTNWPNXV*)

i read you guys every day. every comment on this website and i am a dedicated storm watcher. i love them. but i hate people who come in our "neck of the woods" and actually take the time to say something stupid on a website that specifically holds interest to storms. tell the jerk to get lost and leave us alone. we are busy. keep up the good work. i rely heavily on what you guys have to say!
Here we go again (#7)
Posted by: Terry
Posted On 09:45PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Oh that clueless Tommy!
flo has a chance???? (#8)
Posted by: stan Location: Tinton Falls, NJ
Posted On 10:28PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSQNRTVNRUS*)

First of all, I agree Tommy should get lost - this site is for people who care to stay on top of any potential threat to the continental US. It is our job as concerned citizens to discuss potential weather-related hazards to the general public.

As for "flo to be", I agree that the LLC is SW of the convection. What we are looking for is some convection to fire near this swirl. I'll be watching (as most of you will) to see if this happens overnight. Then we'll see what our buddy Dr. Steve Lyons has to say.......As you may have noticed, most tropical forecasters (including Avila @ the TPC) seem to be cautious with any ballsy forecasts after the Debbie debacle.


cheers

suspicions (#9)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 11:00PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

call me an inconsistent guy, but looking at the latest pix of the system in the vicinity of 15/50.. im convinced that it's done for. theres evidence of wsw shear starting to mow it over.. unless an llcc is under the ne quadrant, call this one off. what's generating all the shear? this is a LA NINA year, albeit a weak one, but ENSO is on still on the favorable side.. theres not supposed to be so much persistent shear at low latitudes. probably resultant of the south central u.s. ridge/east coast trough pattern.. and a reluctant bermuda high. the sw llcc of what i was calling incipient florence.. which is heading more or less to the west.. probably has a 50-70kt shear jet up around 200mb, from my undereducated guess. this swirl hasnt fired any convection yet, but if it does.. it will have plenty of trouble holding onto even some of it. it looked so healthy earlier.. just dont know what to think. the shear monster looks to claim another one.
Brief Analysis of Atlantic Low (#10)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:41PM 05-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPY*)

Having given a cursory overview of the disturbance and the conditions it's under, here's what I've found:

Organization: The low has only a weak to modest banding pattern, which is indicated in several imagery channels. If it had a tightly-wound low-level circulation, like TD Four did at one point, I'd be much more interested, but the low-level cloud field is unremarkable. A recent scatterometer pass indicates winds of only 15 - 10 knots in the southern semicircle, rather close to the center. Winds to its north are no higher than 20 kts, if you discount possible rain-contamination areas.

Upper-level Conditions: The lack of organization is a little strange; CIMSS upper-level analyses indicate little or no shear. In fact, a well-defined upper-level cyclone is depicted over the circulation. Perhaps some dry air to its north is having a negative effect, but there's no direct evidence for this.

Prognosis: Fair. To quote the phrase the NHC uses so often: "Development, if any, will be slow." If it keeps on a westward track, remember the old generalization--if it hasn't developed by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean, it probably won't. At least, not in the eastern Caribbean. I think a more westward track is likely than a WNW turn, and a track through the Lesser Antilles in a day or so seems probable. After that, though, I won't speculate.

Upper-level conditions look to be neutral to favorable over the western Atlantic through 72 hours, according to the AVN, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models. Afterwards, a strong trough is forecast to build in over the eastern tropical Atlantic; NOGAPS keeps this strong through at least 144 hours. Needless to say, this could be another hurdle for the meagre (so far) Cape Verde season.
If nothing else comes off the African pike by the 20th, you can pretty much kiss any more Cape Verde storms goodbye, as they're unlikely to form after then. Those that do, tend to stay well at sea.
Development farther west, though, is always a possibility.
Starting to Develop (#11)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:36AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNWU*)

TPNT KGWC 061158

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS

B. 06/1045Z (103)

C. 17.6N/4

D. 52.1W/8

E. SIX/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5 24HRS -06/1045Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LLCC

IN THE PAST 6HRS. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. ADDED 0.5 TO

DT FOR WHITE BAND. FINAL T IS BASED ON PT. MET SUPPORTS.

Will Flo Show? (#12)
Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando
Posted On 08:44AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)

I think so. The last several loops indicate that this system is getting its act together. Convection is covering and wrapping around the LLCC. IF this persists.......

Kev
Re: Tommy's Comments (#13)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:57AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQWT*)

Hey guys, just remember this: this is an open forum and we can post what we see as we see it. I haven't YET seen one comment where someone actually asked for a storm to hit their area. As for Tommy, just ignore him. He wants attention, and when you answer him, it gives him what he wants. Just keep watching and posting.

Tommy, no one here WANTS a storm to hit here, if you can find a post where someone has actually said that, post it. Otherwise, remember that people here are weather enthusiasts and we like to follow the tropics; however, this does NOT MEAN we want a US landfall.
i'm sorry (#14)
Posted by: tommy Location: cocoa beach,florida
Posted On 09:46AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPQNQRT*)

hey you guys im really sorry that you think i just want attention among other things.i realize that you are concerned storm watchers but i really think you have a tendency to over reacton on each system that is out there.i am concerned when people say that they really count on what you are saying here because most all of you are making educated guesses at best.they need to be listening to the people who are the real authorities on these storms..the national hurricane center does know what they are talking about and when they aren't calling it that means its not there .again i am sorry for making you mad.it is absolutely not my intention to come in here and harass anyone.i read these postings because i am just as interested in these storms as you are. i just think you ought to stop predicting that every storm is coming into the united states when it is absolutey too early to call something like that. please accept my apology though...thanks
Corrections (#15)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:51AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPQ*)

1.) I should have written "upper-level anticylone", not "...cyclone".

2.) The track indeed looks WNW, as per the NHC. It looks a *little* better, but we'd all do well to adopt a wait and see attitude.
Atlantic Wave (#16)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 10:00AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

This area seems to be getting a little better organized this morning. Excellent analysis JJ. We should adopt a wait and See attitude towards this system, since conditions are marginally favorable at best, and we've been to this movie before. cheers!!
Dvorak (#17)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 10:12AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)

Not to be a nuisance, but I was still wondering what the URL is for the following info that was posted above...


TPNT KGWC 061158

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS

B. 06/1045Z (103)

C. 17.6N/4

D. 52.1W/8

E. SIX/GOES8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5 24HRS -06/1045Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LLCC

IN THE PAST 6HRS. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. ADDED 0.5 TO

DT FOR WHITE BAND. FINAL T IS BASED ON PT. MET SUPPORTS.


opinions (#18)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 10:15AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)

Following up from all the previous comments, I know of no "intelligent" person who actually wants their city to be struck by a hurricane. And I am speaking from experience since I lost everthing I owned during hurricane Camille. However, that doesn't stop people from wanting to talk about, or study, or track, or analyze, or just be totally amazed by these amazing weather phenomenons. It can almost be an like an addiction. And predicting the weather is just like gambling, some are better than others, but regardless, the house, in this case "mother nature" usually wins.... Keep up the great work gang....
TO Andy URL (#19)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 10:24AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNYQ*)

http://www.met.fsu.edu/Data/archive/weather/HURR/
19/54 Under Shear (#20)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 11:21AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Looking at this loop:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-wv-loop.html


It looks like there is deffiantly shear going on.
I am not sure if that is convection going on at 17/54 (ish) It does look like it is moving west.


Is it possiable that we are going to have a later season because of all of this shear going on? It seems like there is alot of built up energy out there that hasn't been able to expend itself. I am suprised that we haven't seen anything out of the Gulf.

Is this anything? (#21)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 11:27AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

If you look at:
http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-wv-loop.html


Watch the last part of the loop, is there something trying to spawn at 25/92 (ish) in the Gulf. It looks like circulation is starting.
What do yall think?
Thanks Gary. (#22)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 11:30AM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)

I appreciate it.
-Andy
re:something werkin' in da Gulf..... (#23)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 12:32PM 06-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQRNRSXNQQ*)

looks like it to me....something is definitely working out there. It will be interesting if it tends to drift..I see a slight drift to the west, and if it is just drifting, etc etc etc...then there will be enough time for something to develop.
any pros out there who know whether this is something to be concerned about?
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