CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 04:02 PM 09-07 EDT

TD#7 to Move into Mexico and Other Systems
09:02 AM EDT - 06 September 1999

Quick note, what's left of Dennis is still dumping rain over North Carolina. I once lived in Raleigh, so I can imagine how that amount of rain can flood certain areas.

TD#7 is NOT acting like Bret, and is much closer to the Mexican coast that Bret was. It most likely will go fully inland (it's almost at that point now) later today over Mexico without strengthening all that much.

In the rest of the Atlantic, there is a wave in the Central Atlantic that still bears watching, and a smaller wave near to the Lesser Antilles that also has flared up this morning.

We will be watching. For more information on TD#7 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#7.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 27 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #10 - #30 (of 30 total)
NE Gulf (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:35PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTX*)

You guys all need to chill out. Mike, no offense, but not everyone posts here everyday and I don't think you should have been so hard on David. It is true that we see alot of storms like this one in the Gulf, but all the reasons you listed are very valid ones of why we should be watching it very closely. As far as this system goes, I don't think it's moving all that rapidly to the South. I know the other system ahead of it has been plaguing West Central Florida for the last 8 or so hours and that I haven't really seen the other one move. By the way, why don't you tell them what you do for a living Mike, instead of saying you're not a "simple person"....like the rest of us.
The simple person (#11)
Posted by: Richards
Posted On 02:58PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RTNYUNRTSNUW*)

I requested last week that Mike Anderson post some of his qualifications. I have yet to see anything in this regard. Who/where is Florida Wx?

We'll be waiting.....
RE RICHARDS (#12)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 03:12PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSW*)

You can IM me anytime you see me omn line , and i will be happy to let you know what my qualifications are.As for this system in the GULF all i wanted was to make you all awear of it, Never forecasted any tropical development , but said it could happen ,Mike A.
Simple... (#13)
Posted by: David Conner
Posted On 03:50PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRQNWSNRRR*)

I think Mike has an AOL account (of which I do not have anymore) and his screen name is "Florida WX".

It would be interesting to find out his qualifications, I do agree.


TROPIC WATCHER (#14)
Posted by: JAMIE Location: LAFITTE,LA
Posted On 03:59PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQTNQTWNRPS*)

HI GUYS I'M REALLY NOT ANY GOOD AT PREDICTING WEATHER OR READING MODLES,BUT I LOVE KEEPING UP WITH THE TROPICS I ALSO LIKE TO READ ALL OF YALLS POST EVERYDAY. I LIVE IN LOUISIANA SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.I'VE SEEN THE FLARE UP IN THE GULF EARLIER IN THE DAY AND IT LOOK LIKE SOMETHING TO ME. I'LL ALSO BE WATCHING IT TOO.
Mike Anderson (#15)
Posted by: Veronica smith Location: miami Florida
Posted On 04:58PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSY*)

I have been reading everything that you people have been putting on this page since the hurricane season began,As far as im concerned mike has been right on the money,and to answer some questions about him , well my husband and i know mike and his family well, mike is a real family man and he really cares about people, i can say he is as far a people person as you will ever find in today's crazy world. However i dont quite know why he has not told you all who he is and what he is , but i can assure you he is really involved in meteoroligy, anyway i hope this helps.

Mike, His Qualifications & The Gulf (#16)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:01PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXT*)

Look, I did not mean to start a firestorm on Mike. My comments were meant in this way: #1) this is NOT an official website for the NHC, it meant to be used by EVERYBODY, even the simple man/woman who wants to share their thoughts about the tropics; #2) I don't think it does serves Mike rude and disrespectful to the others who do post on this website. Mike, you may say you are not, but, you keep dwelling on what you have posted here before and although they do have an archive here, don't depend on people to look. Just try to be more lenient towards us simple folk that are trying to learn and navigate our way towards LEARNING.
I have talked to Mike on several occasions via IM and he does have very good qualifications for his postings. He is actually very good at what he does and I trust him. Just lighten up a little Mike. Maybe it's not in your personality, but I don't believe that...people are just interested, not everyone is a pro.
mesoscales and shortwaves (#17)
Posted by: mary Location: t
Posted On 07:42PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRSU*)

The 2:30 pm report for the west coast region spoke of the convective areas in the NE Gulf as being interacting shortwaves. The prediction is for them to hang out through Wednesday in one form or another . I dont know enough to know whether or not this could form tropical depressions or not. But there was no place in the report that alluded to anything more significant than rain. Can any one else elaborate?
WHERE THE HELL IS EVERYONE zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz's (#18)
Posted by: ??????????????? (http://????????????????????) Location: ????????????????????????//
Posted On 07:42PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRSR*)

COME ON PEOPLE LETWS HERE SOME FREAKING

""CHITER CHATER OUT THERE""


Who is Mike Anderson? (#19)
Posted by: Terry Location: Orlando
Posted On 08:20PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQTNTQNT*)

You can find Mike Anderson on AOL under the screen name and email florida wx /floridawx@aol.com.
Central Atlantic Wave (#20)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 09:38PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNTX*)

Since I'm new at posting comments on this site, I figure I'll stay clear of the flying rocks. Since they have settled, It seems that the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic in gaining steam, and is looking like it should be a storm by tomorrow if it doesn't encounter any shear. The area of convection seems to have centralized and it looks like rotation and outflow are beginning to form. This system seems to have the potential for a major atlantic storm, most of the ingredients are there. Keep your eyes to the southeast.
Any help (#21)
Posted by: Billy boy blue
Posted On 11:54PM 06-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

I was woundering if we might ge any hurricanes soon, i really dont understand the whole thing but was just woundering, would appreciate any help.
Hurricanes (#22)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:26AM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNVS*)

The potential is always there. I even think the superstorm of 93 that hit Central Florida was a hurricane that slipped in on us really fast.
Superstorm of '93 (#23)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 08:34AM 07-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTTNQYY*)

Actually, the Superstorm of '93 was a violent squall line in association with a major upper level disturbance. I remember it very well as I was camping outdoors near Ft. Meade for a church function at the time. We had to evacuate to a gymnasium. I estimated the winds to be 50-60 MPH sustained with some slightly higher gusts where I was located. Most damage in the area was minor with some down trees and power lines and typical moderate tropical storm damage. I remember the next day was very cold with temperatures in the 30's. The winds were very gusty as well and we barely made it across the Gandy bridge to get back to Pinellas County before it closed. Tampa had the worst damage with considerable roof damage and water levels intruding on people's homes.

Enough about the Superstorm of '93. The tropical wave in the Central Atlantic Ocean looks very impressive and it appears well on its way to becoming Floyd. It may impact the Leeward Islands due to an expected westward heading for several days to come. This could be the next major hurricane.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TD #8 SOON (#24)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 12:50PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXW*)

This wave has a rotation and good convection, I would be surprised if we dont see TD #8 by tonight.

SirCane
Floyd (#25)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 01:20PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNYR*)

Indeed. The tropical wave 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles looks impressive on satellite imagery this afternoon. I surmise that this wave will become Tropical Depression Eight by 5 PM EST this afternoon. Convection is organizing near the circulation center and I see nothing that will impede development in the near term. Furthermore, this system should be christened Floyd rather shortly as well.

Regarding future movement: I think that "Floyd" will have a shot at impacting some location along the U.S. east coast progressing into next week. We will again be challenged with forecasting whether the cyclone will turn northward or approach the coast. The future movement is simply dependent on the strength and position of the trough moving off the U.S. east coast and the position in latitude of the storm. At present, I say that the chances favor a more northerly track over time; however, this is purely conjecture so early in the forecast period.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
TD #8 Has Formed! (#26)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 05:29PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQWV*)

I knew it. IT is supposed to become a 85kt Hurricane in 72 hours and continue W and WNW
Soon to be Floyd (#27)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 05:36PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNVY*)

TD #8 has formed and we need to watch this one . The TPC has this system with a West motion with a slight north component, putting it near the NE Leeward islands in 72 hours as a 75-knot rapidly intensifying hurricane. Anticyclonic is forecast to stay north of the system, keeping it on a westward track and providing a good environment for intensification. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as it moves to the north of Puerto Rico. A trough is forecast to dig in the east on Sunday, but may move off quickly, leading to a further westward push under the high pressure that will build in over the Atlantic. Any ideas out there? I haven't seen any model guidance or forecasts long range yet.
CHANCES OF FLRIDA STRIKE (#28)
Posted by: MR ? (http://dont have one) Location: Somwhere in florida ?
Posted On 06:49PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQTR*)

Hi I was Woendering what the chances of southern
florida having a direct impact, from soon to become floyd here he is suposed to have 85 mph winds in 72 hours with rapid intesification.

i f anyone would like to feel free to guess any of "?" above feel free to and who ever guesses right ill put it where it is suposed to go.

so start thinking
Models (#29)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:41PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRPU*)

The last time I checked the NoGaps and AVN the models were making conservative estimates and they werent particularly in agreement about direction much past the 65th longitude. However one of the models did show it doing the right hook off to the northern atlantic at the 144th hour model. But that is so far off who knows? The other thing is that they show the hurricane/storm slowing down in forward motion after getting past the Leewards so I think the models have just not kept up with any of the storms very well this year. Dennis sure gave them a run for the money.
"?"'s and TD #8 (#30)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:02PM 07-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUT*)

1st, I am taking a guess, but I am guessing that Mr. ? is Mike Anderson and his location is Miami, Florida. Just a guess. We'll find out soon enough if I am right. 2nd, I am thinking that's its way too soon to guess where TD8/soon to be Floyd is going to go. I could guess anywhere and have a 50/50 chance of being right. So, until it's closer, I am not even hazarding a guess. I am worn out from Dennis.
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