CFHC Talkback For News Story #96:
Newest Talkback: 11:05 PM 09-15 EDT

TD#11, Florence, and More
03:49 PM EDT - 15 September 2000

Tropical Storm Florence is moving slowly toward Bermuda. Tropical Storm warnings are up for it.

TD#11 (Possibly Gordon later tonight or tomorrow) has reformed its center, from all indications I can see. A little to the North and East of the 11AM position. This makes things interesting for the Eastern Gulf Coast. Folks along there will want to watch this, along with everyone else in the Gulf coast.

East of the Caribbean islands, a new wave is looking good to form into TD#12 fairly soon (tomorrow perhaps).

Lot's going on, and tons of speculation with TD#11 abounds. Because of some shear, Florida is getting some offshoot rain from TD#11 already. But the core will not get close until Monday or Tuesday, I believe. All the Gulf must continue to watch this system. A complex situation is arising, so be ready to expect the unexpected.

I personally will be out of town until very late Sunday night, so the page is turned over completely to John until then. (I may get on once or twice over the weekend, but I wouldn't count on it.) On Sunday afternoon, John is heading to Texas, so there will be some time where we will not be able to make updates. (Until late Sunday night). The site will still run with all the automated code, and the comment areas will as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #24 - #44 (of 44 total)

GFDL (#24)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:42PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


WHXX04 KWBC 152324

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN 11L



INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 15



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.6 87.8

6 21.8 88.0 325./ 2.7

12 22.4 87.9 3./ 5.8

18 23.1 87.6 25./ 7.8

24 23.8 87.2 29./ 7.5

30 24.4 86.5 48./ 8.8

36 25.2 85.8 42./10.2

42 26.2 84.8 48./13.5

48 27.6 83.5 40./18.6

54 29.2 82.5 31./18.0

60 30.6 81.6 34./16.0

66 32.0 80.6 36./16.3

72 33.4 79.5 38./16.8

78 34.7 78.3 42./16.0



FLOOD WATCH (#25)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 08:01PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FLORIDA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH...EFFECTIVE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 WILL
COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF SATURDAY. AREAL RAIN TOTALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 5 INCHES.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND...AND FINAL
STORM TOTALS COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER...DEPENDING ON THE
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.



Gordon (#26)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:07PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXX*)


Gordon will probably declared soon...bet on watches as early as tonight to tommorrow morning...guaranteed.

Soon to be Gordon (#27)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 08:09PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUX*)


I'm thining a track between New Orleans and Apalachicola is the target. Reminds me a lot of Hurricane Opal in 1995.

yikes (#28)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 08:10PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNQVQ*)


that last gfdl run looks like it cuts across central florida....

gordan by 11pm? (#29)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 08:19PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNQVQ*)


TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
805 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN AND HAS FOUND THE BROAD
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION FURTHER TO THE EAST...NEAR 22.2N 87.4W...
OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH WERE ALSO
FOUND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS THE
STRONGEST OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED TO 1003 MB...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 10 PM CDT...
BASED ON WHAT THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS ARE ON THE EAST SIDE ONCE
THE INVESTIGATIVE FLIGHT IS COMPLETED.

just when the media says its a slow season!

center further east (#30)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 08:20PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQSP*)


They found the LLcc further east at22.2-n 87.4-w looking very interesting!!!!

Looking very interesting! (#31)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 08:43PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVV*)


Anyone know if the shear is supposed to decrease? Please respond.

Looks like they are going to Upgrade 11 at 11 (#32)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 09:01PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRXNYR*)


According to the latest model runs, they are calling this thing tropical storm gordon.. See below... even some of the previous models are taking this storm NE...

TROPICAL STORM GORDON (AL1100) ON 20000916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
000916 0000 000916 1200 000917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 87.4W 23.3N 86.9W 25.2N 86.3W
BAMM 22.2N 87.4W 23.5N 87.3W 25.2N 87.2W
A90E 22.2N 87.4W 23.5N 86.2W 24.9N 85.2W
LBAR 22.2N 87.4W 23.0N 86.9W 24.5N 86.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
000917 1200 000918 0000 000919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.5N 85.6W 30.1N 84.8W 35.6N 80.5W
BAMM 27.2N 87.3W 28.9N 87.8W 32.0N 88.8W
A90E 26.8N 84.7W 28.8N 84.2W 32.5N 83.9W
LBAR 26.5N 85.5W 28.8N 83.6W 34.2N 77.1W
SHIP 58KTS 65KTS 73KTS



Just wondering (#33)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 09:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


If Jim Cantore will stay in TX or move to a more probable location to cover the system.

They have someone in NO and Tampa (I think) (#34)
Posted by: L.T. Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 09:36PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXT*)


So put Cantore in Pensacola or Panama City.

T.S. GORDON AT 11PM (#35)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:00PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


Recon has found a 59 knot flight level wind and pressure of 1000 mb at 9:18 pm.

"Rapidly Intensifying" (#36)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 10:11PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQYNYY*)


Local station stated tonight that TD #11 will be declared TS Gordon with 50mph winds at 11 and that a recon flight had determined that the storm was "showing signs of rapid intensification". They also said that it is beginning to look like west Florida is the target for this storm.

Intensification (#37)
Posted by:
Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 10:22PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQVQ*)


I have been following the IR loop since about 4Pm today, I agree there seems to be rapid intensification of this system. Can anyone tell me what the large black areas are on the IR loop?

Direction (#38)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 10:31PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)


Is it me or does it look like strong westerlies are pushing this more easterly? PLease respond.

More Easterly (#39)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


Hi Mike,

I see the same thing. If it keeps up my prediction is this thing will hit SW Florida(Naples, Ft.Myers, Sarasota).

Intensification....Tropical Storm.....where is it heading..? who knows..... (#40)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile
Posted On 10:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUX*)


I think most of us are thinking the storm is heading our way....I suppose for the excitement...right, Teresa? Anyway...I think because of the slow movement of the storm....it is way too early to tell. The weather channel indicated it will be upgraded.

I remember Opal. It became a cat 4-5 storm withing 24-36 hours. I think this thing could easily be a powerful hurricane.



Hey Rick (#41)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 10:44PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


I have to admit to the rush of tracking a system that has the potential of threatening this part of the Gulf Coast.

I agree with you. All the local stations along the Gulf Coast give the hint its heading in that particular direction. But we really dont know, just alot of guessing.

Northeast @ 5 (#42)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 10:45PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQYNYY*)


Recently heard on the 10:00 news that the storm was moving NE @ 5mph, but I don't know if this will verify with the official update. If it does, it may change the official forecast dramatically.

Also, TWC said something about "dry air" entraining on the west side of the system and weakening it, right when NHC is about to upgrade. These two groups seem to have been on different pages since day one with this system!

Gordon (#43)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 10:46PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)


Cat 4 or 5 would be very scary. I could handle a Cat 1. Looks to me with that strong West to East flow that it will impact Florida. The only way it won't is if the strong Westerlies lift prior to 48 hours. Just my opinion.

Hurricane Watch (#44)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 11:05PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNRPS*)


Local news just reported a Hurricane WaTCH FOR THE tAMPA Bay area. MAx winds are at 60mph.


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