MikeC
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Where do you think TD#2 will go? Will it strengthen? Will it fall apart? West or out to sea?
Here in the lounge, pondering and guesses are allowed.
As of 2:30PM on Aug 11::
UKMET - Trend West
GFDL - Trend West, also this run forms another system closer to Florida
GFS - Pure Crazy: Sends TD#2 through the Florida straights, and has a massive system behind it heading toward the US.
Animated Model plots - See Trends over time.
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hogrunr
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Mike:
I'm interested in hearing what is crazy about the long term right now. Not doubting what you are saying, but just curious of the reasoning behind it.
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Ed in Va
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History is always important...with this track record, recurvature looks like a pretty safe bet
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200902_climo.html#a_topad
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MichaelA
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The is traditionally overly aggressive with its development of systems with little data input. It tends to correct itself after several good data runs.
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Michael
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MichaelA
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I noticed that development in the over the Keys on Friday and Saturday. It will be interesting to see if that trend persists in subsequent runs and if the other models pick it up.
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Michael
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saluki
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My best, highly unscientific guess right now is still for a weak, recurving storm that passes well north of the Leewards and might be a nuisance for Bermuda, if anyone. But these things have a way of surprising us. Let's hope the long-term isn't any more accurate than usual.
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MikeC
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Crazy in the fact runs that far out for tropical systems have never been close, historically. And the fact it has two systems near or over Florida very soon after each other. It's pure crazy to put much stock into it.
TD#2 itself, most likely, will stay away from land. And that's what I am thinking now. The models have trended west and a little south, but not enough to counter away from land. I'm more interested in what may happen beyond TD#2, at least now.
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lisalaw
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As a hurricane fanatic, its great to have something to watch but I think its all much ado about nothing.
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MikeC
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Still not sure what to make of the long range models, African wave is lighting it up, but TD#2 gets further west at the end of the period.
Wave Heights (Based on the ) is interesting too.
Remember this is all lounge and probably won't happen.
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Evan Johnson
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i dont know a lot of model runs have it taking that NW turn by tomorrow. but after jeanne? (i think thats the one that turned N then NE then STATIONARY then WEST lol) i dont trust curvature motions.
Edited by Evan McCone (Wed Aug 12 2009 03:56 PM)
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cyclone_head
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Agree on the crazy models. That second system looks pretty fierce if it pans out per the model. Sort of taking the track Floyd took. I am anxious to see these model runs in the next 48.
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MichaelA
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The 12Z actually merges TD #2 with the African wave. I call that crazy. 
The brings a weak system/storm toward the leeward islands and the brings a rather vigorous storm into the same area at the end of the run period. At any rate, it will be an interesting week to watch for what really happens.
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Michael
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cyclone_head
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Looking at the WV loop, I agree on that westerly track for TD#2. It looks like that high will keep it southerly than the models are indicating. Maybe a northerly turn around 60 W?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
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cyclone_head
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I wonder why the model is predicting a merge?.
You don't see that too often.
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MikeC
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Ana has now formed (really), and a good chunk of the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Florida are now in the Cone. Where do you think it will go and how strong?
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MikeC
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Models one vs the other
HWRF - strengthens before landfall at/near S. Florida:
GFDL - Into Leewards and across islands, basically falling apart due to land interaction:
I'd hope for the second, but be aware of both.
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doug
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Lyons on did a nice graphic this morning that looped the progress of the current wave south of Florida across the northern edge of the Antilles and southern Bahamas, and suggested the pattern will continue over the next week. He saw no reason to argue with the forecast into the end of the period.
Intensity, there is no way to know. Small storms (Charlie and Andrew) can be very intense. But what caused them to rapidly intensify were specific factors they encountered shortly before they approached land fall. Lets stay with strong TS and hope that is correct.
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doug
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MikeC
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A few people are emailing me about the "A" storm heading to south Florida, and i know several of you with Andrew experience are nervous, but there still is some time for Ana to not do that as well. Please just watch it, until we know it's north of the Caribbean in the Bahamas at least.
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ftlaudbob
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The SST's here are 88 degrees.That is pretty darn warm.The weekend is here,so this is a great time to double check your supplies.
I am just hoping we don't get a 1-2 punch, as soon to be TD#3 looks to follow roughly the same path as Ana.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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The south Florida Area Discussion references the EMCWF model, which apparantly takes it into Central Florida, other models are further south, but the EMCWF was the only one that initialized Ana in the proper spot.
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