12:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Update
This morning's reconnaissance flight found Don succumbing to increasing shear and the abundance of nearby dry air, and in fact, the official forecast now calls for a continued weakening trend, with outright dissipation in just 36 hours. However, to remind our readers, Don is a small cyclone, susceptible to changes in intensity, and as such, it is possible that Don takes advantage of a more favorable window that could open up tonight, and strengthen some about the time it crosses the southernmost Lesser Antilles.
Elsewhere, Invest 96L is struggling even more so with dry air, and remains out at sea.
-Ciel
5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update
Recon has found that Invest 95L has become Tropical Storm Don, the fifth tropical cyclone and fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
-Ciel
Original Entry:
The advertised DNA of 2017 favors development of named cyclones in the Main Development Region (A 'box' generally thought of as south of 20°N, and from 70°W to 20°W). We are now watching not one but two new disturbances in this region: Invests 95L and another, TBD.
As of 1:00PM EDT Monday July 17, recon is approaching Invest 95L, which has been looking more organized than yesterday, despite the appearance of struggling with some nearby dry air, as well as what is probably the diurnal convective minimum. Recon will be looking to see if 95L has developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient convective structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should consider watching these. Of note, Invest 95L is a bit of a smaller incipient tropical cyclone, and as such, could intensify faster than a larger system would. Model tracking of 95L (with its moniker updated if and as necessary), is also available in the 95L Forecast Lounge .
Tropical Storm Don Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2017&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Don
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Don
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Don
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Don (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Don
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Don
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Don -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 96L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2017&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 96
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 96
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 96
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
E. Carib Radar Recording
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jul 18 2017 11:46 AM)