MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm opening up on the 97L forecast lounge, which I think has the best shot of possibly affecting the US overall.
The latest long range euro actually forecasts a 908mb low near the Bahamas on Sept. 5, which comes from this system, implying the pattern may be able to push the system more westward than the others. The path may be similar to TD#6 from 2004. But the end still has a chance to recurve. Of all the systems out there right now, this one concerns me the most.
Euro:
Thankfully we have another week or so to watch it.
This lounge is to discuss 97L, what may eventually be TD#8 and Fiona.
This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Again, 97L remains the most likely system to impact of all that are in the Atlantic right now, the Euro is indicating a potential impact just after labor day weekend. It's my personal pick for one to watch over the next week or so.
Euro Run
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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 68
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Been watching this model and it seems to consistantly bring this to a hurricane off the east coast. It's also performed pretty well on the other storms. Not good.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The Euro this morning takes 97L (Fiona) into East Central Florida around Brevard to Ft. Pierce as a category 5 hurricane.:
Link
Another Link
Likely fantasy at this point, but the trends are not good so far.
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Mouton
Unregistered
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Model has consistently been moving farther south over the past few days. The current one has a trajectory directly across the state, ala Andrew but a tad farther north.
I agree this is one to definitely watch as the blocking high pressure system along the east coast has been breakind down for a few days. The current alignment is more in sync with the pre season prognosis for this year concerning the likelihood of east coast storms.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Six computer models on Weatherunderground, run at 2am, do not have that scenario...it's too early to make a call on anything like that based on one model
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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It's not just based on the model, but the pattern in this case. The trends have been markedly toward the west, and the setup with Earl and Danielle looks to be strengthening the ridge. In historical context, the Euro model has handled this better than most. This is where that is coming from. Do expect what the link shows to verify? No, but I do know the trends are leaning that direction.
Lounge is for this type of discussion. Odds right now are about 50/50 on recurve. We have a week to watch this one, but I know the impact of this model is right after labor day, which may cause a few people to balk on plans. But don't until this has formed, and the trend persists. It is also possibly that this may move even further west/south and rake the islands too.
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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It appears that 97L is currently lower than Earl was, but difficult to tell how far lower (without some more research which I am not up to this morning). Interesting, even made mention of it's possible future track this morning....
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It is lower - by about two degrees of latitude. The 12Z run yesterday put the system into the Georgia/South Carolina border area so the track trend has been southward. Eight days is a long way off.
ED
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KikiFla
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Miami, FL
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The continues to go further south.. the 12Z run now has 97 L going through Cuba and into the Gulf. Why is it doing that? Is the ridge predicted to get that strong? Hasn't this been a consistent model?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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One model out of several others that show a weak system following Earl's path. 97L seems to be struggling with a dry air environment today which will continue to inhibit its development in the short term. Until there is a definite center to initialize the models on, I wouldn't put too much trust in them.
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Michael
PWS
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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There is some good news with 97L, as chances for it developing are dropping, and the European model now takes it out to sea this morning. Still it has a 90% chance for development.
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
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this is the first I have heard of this. Everybody still is calling for 97L to develope. What has changed?
Edited by Jasonch (Mon Aug 30 2010 07:10 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
this is the first I have heard of this. Everybody still is calling for 97L to develope. What has changed?
The wasn't developing the system, but the overall chances are still pretty high. The good news (if you can call it that) is that the Euro was more out to sea with it, but on the other hand it just means the models are all over the place, and with it staying weaker (so far) also could up the chances of a westward motion.
Most models are sending it out to sea this morning, but the weaker system implies they all may be wrong. Odds favor the out to sea scenario, but with a lot of questions.
It's a mixed message right now, in other words.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 97L went straight to TS Fiona with 35 knot sustained winds. Lots of potential scenarios with this one but the has been consistent with a weak system (or not much of a system at all) that stays well out to sea in the wake of Hurricane Earl (actually more to the east southeast of Earl). For now that seems like a reasonable scenario.
ED
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Any worries I had earlier in the week are gone now, Fiona looks destined to be out to sea, and may even fall apart before that.
98L behind it probably won't develop anytime soon.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Mike, won't the apparent training of
Earl draw the dominant steering elements to him and leave a different environment for Fiona (sorry too many cancer meds to type straight.)
(edited~danielw: I hope I got this right)
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2010 11:27 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Fiona has strengthened this AM as Earl pulls away. Still looks like it will generally follow in Earl's wake though.
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Michael
PWS
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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It seems as though the outflow between Earl and Fiona has generated some higher pressure with the anticyclonic rotation. This is what could be slowing Fiona and allowing it to strengthen. I'm not quite ready to write this one off. Models has very little experience handling these type of interactions.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I just noticed that more than one of the BAM models is beginning to call for Fiona slipping UNDER Earl and heading back to the west. I am not a huge fan of these particular models, but could they really be onto something? I haven't noticed the cone widening much on Fiona in the forcast? Should it be?
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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