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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Hurricane Ernesto track
      #71345 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:51 AM

ok so I see i'm just south of this track ( Palm Coast, FL, east coast). Not good. Generater time! This is just what I predicted to happen... except I predicted it to graze just west of the florida coastline.. Hopefully this track will go more south so I won't be affected much.... Sorry south FL.. Guess schools should close by Wed. over here if things don't change.. I believe if the track doesnt signifigantly shift west ... us here in Central Florida and northeastern Florida are in for a big week!

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: allan]
      #71368 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 AM

Not a forecast really...more of a question...but thought more appropriate here.

What if Ernesto misses this ridge & keeps more to the N & actually ends up on the E coast of Fl...or even more against original thinking somewhere else on the Estrn Seaboard?

Looked at one longrange run of the GFS last week showing a cat2 off thee E coast of Fl..of course that far out you don't put too much stock into it.


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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: twizted sizter]
      #71377 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:22 AM

I'm glad somebody started this"track" thread since I have no techno-references to back up my "forecast" and I don't want a graveyard on my record while I'm still only a "registered user".
I've been reading the formal discussion and wondering aloud to myself where all the people are who see this storm trying as hard as it can to go NORTH (and thence NE, hopefully)!
He's even Waving at us from 25 70 - YOO HOO .....


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: twizted sizter]
      #71382 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:33 AM

So, the UL trough is hanging tough against Ernesto, although not enough to diminish its intensity. This is a dramatic change, and the change in the forecast models over the last 24 hours is remarkable. The history of Ernesto and previous forecast tracks are quite amazing! Do you realize the forecast errors for Ernesto beyond 72 hours? Ernesto is one of the reasons these avg forecast errors are so large -- and it's not done yet. At this point, I expect the CENTER of Ernesto to never make landfall in the U.S., although the entire SE US coast will get some rough surf. The subtropical ridge is retreating quickly. After getting torn up crossing Cuba, I believe Ernesto will strengthen to a cat III off the E coast of FL before zooming off to the NE.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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ShreddedUmbrella
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: RevUp]
      #71406 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:45 PM

Ernesto will die in the mountains of Cuba.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ShreddedUmbrella]
      #71413 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:13 PM

The eye of Ernesto will exit directly over Daytona Beach.

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sdear
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ShreddedUmbrella]
      #71414 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:15 PM

I sure hope it does break up over Cuba ! The track of this thing "for now" shows right by me in Sarasota.

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Bob Dag
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: allan]
      #71421 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:34 PM

Ernesto is going right over my house, and I'm not happy about it.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ShreddedUmbrella]
      #71436 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM

Quote:

Ernesto will die in the mountains of Cuba.




I wouldn't go that far, but I do think it will be downgraded to a minimal Cat 1 or maybe even TS levels. Heck I find hard to believe it's a Cat 1 'Cane now. Sure the outflow is good but the center is still not wrapped up very tightly. Then again after seeing so many Cat 4/5 last year maybe I just forgot what a Cat 1 really looks like.

I've said it in another post but I believe we got a jumper here. It will have trouble over Cuba making the center hard to find, then re-appear in a disorganized state over the Straits of FL / east GOM, from there it will spin up to a Cat 2/3 then hook sharply - ala Charley. In fact I'd bet Ernesto becomes know as Charley Jr when all is said and done. In the end I see a larger wind and rain field (displaced from the center), but a weaker storm wind-wise overall (in other words no Cat 4).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


Edited by JMII (Sun Aug 27 2006 01:59 PM)


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hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Bob Dag]
      #71464 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:14 PM

Ernesto looks like is doing the same than Charley, but this time he might come to the tampa bay area

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Judes
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: hofloka]
      #71476 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:26 PM

I live in the Clearwater area and it looks right now that it may come here. The area is way overdue and we have a lot of complacency here about hurricanes. It has changed so much in 36 hours, however, that once again we will just wait and see. This time, different from the past 3 years, I really do have a different kind of feeling about it. Maybe one that our luck up till now has been just too good. Maybe Cuba will just stop it in its tracks. That would be the best thing.

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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Judes]
      #71489 - Sun Aug 27 2006 03:12 PM

the Tampa Bay area

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Matt


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: chase 22]
      #71652 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:43 PM

My guess at this point is that it skirts the SE tip of cuba and possibly comes up to the Key Largo area and then North and into the Atlantic and the Bahama's.

I have doubts that it ever makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.

This one is a real head scratcher to me.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #71655 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:46 PM

I am now thinking this will be an Everglades shot, out between the Ft Lauderdale and JAX and then up to give a direct hit as a major hurricane into North Carolina.

--------------------
Jim


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hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Rasvar]
      #71659 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM

Not at all crazy what you say, hopefully for tampa bay area you will be right

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tester
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #71666 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM

I agree with others that have posted... I think it is going to clip south FL and head out to the Atlantic.

Regarding another post about the storm coming over a persons home and that person not being happy about it; I recall the song "its the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine..."

It'll be fine - hopefully better than New Orleans anyway.

Be safe.


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alliedj
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: hofloka]
      #71669 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 PM

no gulf, no Florida, up the eastern seaboard

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debwire
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: allan]
      #71683 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:26 PM

I see Ernesto going over the Ft. Myers area.

I live in St. Pete and frankly, I wish no storm for any part of Florida. Any chance it could just spin fish in the Gulf and die out?


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: alliedj]
      #71686 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:32 PM

Just a quick note from our local Met here in Tampa, first he says the chances are very good that cuba might kill Ernesto all together. But if it does make it out of cuba he ended his report saying that he just got a new update that the high in the atlantic might hold on more then they thought keeping Ernesto a little more west then the current track.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Nateball]
      #71711 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:40 AM

Was that a BN9 met? Just curious, because they keep repeating the same thing.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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