Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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NHC has scheduled a possible recon flight for the 18N 85W (Carribbean area), if it becomes better organized and/or gains convection. The next few days will be interesting. 
And now for a poll:
Will the area of disturbed weather in the Carribbean develop?
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
0236 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2002
....MAJOR EAST COAST STORM SETTING UP FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NATIONWIDE. WEAK
PROGRESSIVE TROF IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH SHIFT NWD THIS PERIOD
KEEPING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. ALL MODELS COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH LOW LATITUDE CYCLOGENESIS WRN CARIB LIFTING S OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HPC FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN SEEING AN IMPLIED
SIGNAL FROM MODELS SINCE LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE GULFMEX AND WRN
CARIB FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
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Mark
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: Cape Coral, Fl.
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Activity is increasing from the nw carribean northeastward towards the Bahama's. This area stays persistant as waves of low pressure run along this area. Right now upper air configuation does not warrant any tropical weather for the next several days but it does mean that moisture in place could run along the Florida east coast especially southeast Florida for several days with winds increasing as these waves develope. Some models do show tropical development in the eastern Pacific though weak out 5-7 days so for now we must keep close eye on upper level winds and wait for them too decrease over the next 3-4 days then maybe we will see some development in the NW Carribean. 
Edited by Mark (Wed May 22 2002 05:00 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Gary, ya beat me to it! Storms a comin'. I'm gonna pull the pin on this one after my gut this week and todays TPC forecast which shows (as we all know) almost unanimous model concensus of a pretty intense storm that will evolve into a warm core system in the NW Carib and track across S. Fl and up the east coast. Probably then take on characteristics, but the Gulf Stream is damn warm. This one early blow will rattle the windows folks, cause flooding and beach erosion, which sucks since they just replaced the beach south of Cape Canaveral. Stay tuned....We haven't seen an early one like this in a while. Cheers!! Steve H.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What happens if this system develops and decides to take a more westerly track; say into the GOM?HAHAHA. I guess the wind patterns will not let that happen.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Yea Colleen , It was me I was just givin him a hard time LMAO. I know he isnt "suckin up" You guys are a battle hardened team !! C-YA !!!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Post deleted by John C
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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WOOOOOHOOOOOO "THERE BACK" !!! 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Must have been a bad post huh John?
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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cyclone jones
Unregistered
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I AGREE THAT SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Yes ,That front is just kinda hangin around there, Something will develop and kick up a little wind and surf.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey--I think Joe b. does a great job--how about you guys?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yeah Joe's OK, but did you see his post today...it says a lot of nothing. Alright so I said I'd pull the pin, it gets the chatter started. And Shawn the track and intensity of the low is still up in the air, but I agree with Gary that something will develop and a pretty deep low at that. Let see where the cutoff sets up, and go from there. The easern GOM isn't out of the question by any means....I want to see the EC tonight to see where/if it puts it. Pretty good hype for something that isn't there yet, but I wouldn't think all the models are wrong. HPC says the AVN is out of bed....too far east with the current pattern, but says the UKMET is too far west, and they take a compromise position. From our experience it probably won't go down the middle of the solutions. This should be fun to watch. If it doesn't develop I'll go into hibernation until August...LOL> Jeers!! Steve H.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Ya Joe is kewl, went to an excellant college too !!!! Also he doesnt have people telling him what to say ,Or what "not too" say, Entirely his Thoughts and Experience..... 6 in one half a dozen in the other . Everyone has there own opinions.... I Like Him, and respect his aspects and theorys of tropical weather.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I tend to agree on all sides with Joe B. He's out there doing his own thing, and I read him every day. Sometimes I watch the videos if there's anything exciting going on. One thing that was interesting in his comments today - that I couldn't make heads or tails of was the discussion of how after Allison, they knew TX was out of the woods. If I put 2 and 2 together, maybe what he was saying was that the fluke that was Allison set the western-most boundary area that no other storm would approach that season because of the setup thereafter? Obviously there must be some connection with an early subtropical storm and what it does for down the line?
The other thing of note from his discussion today was that he seems to have found a similarity in this year's setup with the previous 4 years. I don't see a strong East Coast trof this year. It seems like it's progressing the opposite to me - high pressure over Florida. And if his proverbial 'trof in the means' sets up between 90 and 100 W, that tells me the entire Gulf Coast from Eastern TX to South FL would be in the line of fire at any given time.
A quick check of the models tonight showed that the European, which was the first to jump on development, really isn't doing anything. Some of the other models want to set up low pressure NE of the Bahamian Kingdom or off the NC Coast in 96-120 hours. One of the s that I looked at appears to be overly bullish on Eastpac action, but several of the other models are wanting to put something down there too.
At least things are getting interesting.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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This is a correction to my last post - I went and looked at the new and it definitely shows a low with some precipitation first along SW FL, then off of coastal NC. The other link I had wasn't updated (that was the Tropical Genesis Potential).
L8R,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Looks like it might be a good rainmaker for FLorida - which is good but not so good given the Holiday weekend. Doesn't look like anyone has it developing into anything significant at this point.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Quite logical Caneman, I think it will hang off the coast with stiff easterlys coming across the se , central coast . Like Steve mentioned, at least things are getting interesting . Looking at the tropical genesis.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
Edited by Rad (Wed May 22 2002 10:54 PM)
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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By the way , Where is Frank P.???
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey Rad,
Haven't yet figured out how to post the city on here but I'm just down the road from you in Largo
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