Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You know, I the other day when the models had this thing going nw then east then sw and then wsw, I thought all the models were out to lunch, I really did. There was this little tiny voice in my head, however, that kept saying "they could be right!" And guess what? For the most part, they were. I was wrong about the models. However, the must have been as perplexed as we were given the fact that they thought it would brush the coastline of FL (it did) then go NW (it did) then N (it did). I do not think, though, that they expected the WSW movement at all. As it stands now, if it can keep moving further south, it will be in a more favorable environment and who knows what will happen? The was pretty close to the current track as far as I can tell.
I told my husband that I was NOT going to watch this storm anymore (this was on Sunday) because it was just a waste of time, LOL....he said, "You know what? When YOU stop watching it, that's when it will come back to haunt you."
Hmmmmmm. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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just saw outlook, its moving more south and it will move into a area of no shear, and strengthen. didnt they say it would be swept away with a trough.few days ago,,,,,,
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks to me to be moving more to the south now too.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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MarkR
Unregistered
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Hi Everyone,
Well Eduardo is moving almost s-sw over the last 2 hours. If you look at satellite pictures and radar they both show a more southerly direction than a few hours ago. I also see the last 2 hours as it takes a more south turn the thunderstorms to the east are approaching the center a bit more and I think this will continue as long as it moves further south. If I had to guess Edouardo will move inland between West Palm Beach and Daytona sometime tommorow as a moderate to strong T.S.. It then will move westward into the gulf and who knows what happens then. The main problem will be rain over central and southwest Florida. Still something to continue to watch and I do expect Tropical Storm Warnings to be posted at 5pm further south on the east coast.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hi, what is happening in the Gulf? Should it be of any concern to us in South TX? Denny
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Edouard continues to weaken as it approaches the coast...tropical storm watch extended...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the tropical storm watch is extended southwardto Titusville Florida. A tropical storm watch is now in effect fromTitusville to Fernandina Beach Florida.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area. While there is the possibility of tropical storm conditions within the watch area...this is not
considered likely...and that is the reason a Tropical Storm Warning is not being issued at this time.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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whats rich johnson lookin at, just ahowed sat. photo and its moving south and he says, wsw............it will be out of the shear tonight.
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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It looks like the moisture is starting to wrap back around the center from the NE quadrant.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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TS Edouard moving W-SW at 6 mph...Winds 50 mph...Pressure 1004mb. forecast it to be a depression at landfall?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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was wondering about the Gulf myself, the latest sattelite pics. are pretty impressive and things tend to change quickly in the Gulf. Does anyone have an intelligent guess if something may form from this?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2002
dry air and shear put an end to the intensification of Edouard.
Each subsequent recon pass measured less wind. A NOAA research
aircraft is currently in the cyclone...and has found no flight-level
winds higher than 45 kt. One can argue that the strong winds found
this morning were mesoscale...rather than cyclone scale...but in any
event they are not there any more. There is no longer any deep
convection in the system...although there is still some about 50 N
mi to the east. The current intensity estimate of 45 kt may be
generous.
Edouard has been moving at 240/5...although the last few images
suggest a slower motion. The predominantly shallow system is
expected to continue to the west-southwest. The official forecast
is considerably quicker to the coast than the previous
advisory...and is close to a blend of the and shallow BAM
guidance. Interestingly...the UKMET turns the system around before
reaching the coast.
Although the SHIPS model still forecasts strengthening...the
official forecast calls for weakening to depression status before
landfall...given that dry air will continue to surround the cyclone
and the shear is expected to remain strong.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 03/2100z 29.8n 79.2w 45 kts
12hr VT 04/0600z 29.6n 80.1w 35 kts
24hr VT 04/1800z 29.3n 81.2w 30 kts...inland
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.8n 82.4w 25 kts...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 83.5w 30 kts...over water
72hr VT 06/1800z 28.5n 85.0w 35 kts
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Whats the chance that the could be wrong and the system decieds to build to a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane before it makes landfall?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I was thinking for the last week plus that TX/SW LA had something headed in their general direction. My last discussion (2 threads back) with Shawn was that I felt like a low pressure would be on the map - classified or not. I think the system runs out of room before it can get well organized and is thus, the 3rd wasted Gulf Landfall of the year. We got some rain this morning and a couple of mild days out of the cloudcover, but not much else here. TX might see some heavy rains before it's all over.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sounds like wishcasting LOL
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Call it whatever you want, but it was pretty apparent with the way things were shaping up. I don't live in SW LA nor do I live in TX so I don't know where you'd get a wishcast out of that. Still, I think by all appearances, something (whatever it is) ended up there.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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could any one give me any information on Hurricane Cristobal
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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A couple of questions you northern gulf coasters need to ask.....
1. Will the model come to fruition as to the track? I think the intensity is way off, but then again I thought the projected track was screwy as well - yesterday... I might have been wrong... could a model actually be almost, kinda, sorta accurate.... time will tell..
2. If Edouard does move into the GOM, and actually survives the trip across FL, will it redevelop?? Again the long term forecast hints at that possibility...
3. Finally has the storm in the GOM at 28.5N and 85W in about 72 hours.... could this thing pull an Erin of 1995? Granted, Erin was a little stronger than old Eddie but.... same scenario.... cross FL, enter into GOM move west and redevelop... Erin kinda surprised Pensacola as a pretty strong Cat 1.....
Frank P
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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On the left hand side of the main page, click on News Archives...I believe you can find the information about Cristobal there. If not there, than underneath the CONTENT column, hit "Storm Links" and go to the TPC (Tropical Prediction Center")/NHC Official Site. That would be another place where you could find past advisories on Cristobal.
Hope that helps!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I believe Edouard should be a major rain event in Florida more than anything else. In fact, tomorrow we should see the circulation cross the state before the convection does! That will be very neat to watch. Central Florida, being on the south side of the storm, needs to watch the rain situation very carefully. Not only will the storm's moisture cause rain, but the flow we are experiencing will bring in even more moisture! Looks like 3-5" of rain are very possible.
Here's my forecast for Central Florida:
Tonight: Partly Cloudy with an isolated evening shower or thunderstorm. Lows in the mid 70's. Light winds
Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning, considerable cloudiness in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon. Winds 15 mph gusting to 25 inland, 30 on the coast. Highs around 90.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Breezy. Winds 10-15 mph, gusts to 20. Lows in the lower to mid 70's.
Thursday: Cloudy and remaining breezy. Rain and thunderstorms. Winds 15 mph, gusting to 20. Highs in the mid 80's.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the early evening. Becoming partly cloudy late. Winds 10-15 mph in the evening, becoming calm late. Lows in the lower 70's.
We'll see how my forecast verifies! St. Johns river also looks to have major flooding due to high stages. Something to keep an eye on.
Kevin
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