troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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could the convection building over the yucitan be the low that the avn and sees headiing toward the upper Gulf?
enquiring minds want to know... 
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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After viewing several of the panels within days 6-8 looks like any where from N Central down to S Central Fl might be in for some more tropical weather. FYI the model has a system headed for the Alabama/ Florida border with in that time frame . Looks like the Gulf may be a busy place for a while. One of the panels looks like the wave train comming off of Africa. I believe that most of the tropical action this year will continue to form on our back door step. Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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OH MY GOSH!!! Looks like real trouble to me. Haven't really looked at the loops lately, have been busy watching the BUCS game. 
This area(BOC) certainly needs to be watched. Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to start keeping a very close watch on what is going on in the GOM. Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Aint that the truth !!! something gonna happen there 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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that thing in the bay the last few frames has made the cloud field all around it turn and run from it not its storms but the ones around it this thing looks up to no good can it make it thew the next 12 hours it looks real strong
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Are there any buoys located close to the BOC? The closest that I could find would be 42002 southeast sabine TX. The BP was 29.85. Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Don't hang your head too low over the Bucs/Saints game. The better team won  , but the game was one for the ages.
Here's to a great rivalry and in the face of any doubters of the power that lies within the NFC South!
Scary stuff on those model links. We're going to have to see what their trends are this week.
Steve
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well what can I say..... The BUCS actually handed the Saints their Big Win. I have big shoulders though, I can take it.
LOL Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gustav slowing down a little this morning, looking more organized. recon found a 1002 pressure and flight level max temp at 19C.. cooler than last night. but, with slowing speed, better outflow structure, high oceanic heat content.. gustav should begin to intensify at a greater pace later today. right now if it crosses any land i'm thinking only carteret/hyde/dare counties.. but gale force winds might start at myrtle beach and eventually be felt as far up the coast as nantucket. think it will bomb out as it phases, intensify as it becomes later this week.
td 7.. written off but surely too soon. slowed down and now emerging from that nasty jet stream, convection returning. the low level structure is nowhere near as defined as before, but as it drifts west and north it will probably slowly reorganize.
fay.. the low level remnant is now near laredo, bending southward. a pulse from its mid level low kicked convection on the texas coast.. now pressures are down near 1008mb off padre island.. comparable with the lowest pressures at the old low/mid level center. this could represent an attempt for fay to reform on the coast... or just a new system altogether. if something develops here it will be interesting to see if the calls it fay, or something new.
central gulf convection returning for the day... this is where avn/nogaps/cmc are now saying an eastward moving low develops and heads for west florida. with gustav slowing the easterlies it will continue as a convergent environment.. but whether the gulf trouble comes to be here or back near texas.. or at all.. remains to be seen.
interestingly outside of gustavs envelope in the bahamas is another burst of convection.. convergence with upper support.. only noticed because kept making little storms that whipped up around gustav out of this area.
east atlantic.. wave midway across amplitude up a little, still a broad longitudinal axis of turning. convection healthy in spite of subsidence.. shear lessening. enough models are following this to give it consideration, though not any better organized.
east of there another wave/mid level spin is off africa, some convection, just south of the cape verdes. bastardi talking about the setup for a long tracked storm.. so watching this area though not seeing anything overtly threatening.
basin remains active with old systems threatening to redevelop and possibly a new one somewhere in the cards too.. though none for certain.
HF 1435z09september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002
I REALLY HATE TO FLIP-FLOP LIKE THIS...BUT WE NEED TO RE-ISSUE THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. HAVE SUSTAINED 20 KT EAST WINDS IN GLS BAY.
OBSERVER AT JAMAICA BEACH IS REPORTING TIDES 2.5 FEET ABOVE WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE AT THIS TIME AND WATER OVER BOAT DOCKS AND BULKHEADS.
AT LOW TIDE THIS MORNING TCOON DATA SHOWING CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE AT
2.5 FEET ABOVE. PORTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD WILL BEGIN FLOODING WITH
WATER LEVELS AT 4 FEET...WHICH READINGS MAY APPROACH TONIGHT AT HIGH
TIDE. APPEARS SOME TYPE OF HYBRID SYSTEM MAY GET GOING OFF THE COAST
TUE WITH BOTH ETA AND AVN SHOWING A TIGHTENING ERLY GRADIENT. BOTTOM
LINE IS WE DON'T EXPECT THINGS TO GET ANY BETTER. MIGHT NOT HAVE A
LOT TO SPEAK OF TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE THREAT GOES UP TONIGHT AND
TUE WITH WESTERN SHORE OF GLS BAY THE MAIN THREAT.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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All I got to say is that the gulf is a mess right now. I don't know if anything will hapeen out there but there is certainly enough moisture to work with.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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I've been looking at some of the models and alot of them are showing something going on in the gulf down around the Texas coast and then heading to Fla. (Tampa/Ft. Myers) This could be an interesting and much discussed week coming up. With the changing the way they are going to call a storm a storm will the predictions go back up?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The latest satpic loops show that the exposed center of Gustav appears to be rotating around a convective center to the sw of the vis LLCc. In fact, the last few frames look as if Gustav is moving almost due west.
Anyone else see this, thoughts?
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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These were actually announced at the (Florida) Governor's Hurricane Conference, and had been in the works for a while. Max Mayfield announced at that time that they would just name S/T storms, rather than use the alpha/bravo system or numeric designators.
Also, Max indicated that if a system was a threat near the coast they would overlook nuances, ie, same way they did with Edouard off the Fl east coast. "No unnamed storm will strike the US" was the exact quote, I believe.
He also implied (as I understood it) that even if a system transitioned from t/st to extrtatropical, that if it was near the coast, they would maintain name/warnings to insure continuity/understanding by the public that regardless of what type of storm it was, the treat was still there.
Hope this sheds light on the discussions that have been on-going here about this.
IHS,
Bill
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gustav still has a decoupled inner core. there is either one mid to low level center under the main convective burst or just a mid level center with a smaller one pinwheeling into the dry air slot. noticed that subsidence only really tends to affect tropical systems when there is shear aiding its intrusion.. in this case easterly gradient shear between the upper low to the south and the ridge to the north. as the storm slows and moves closer to the coast this should abate some.. as the ridge to the north recedes. think that gustav will begin to intensify by this evening and become a hurricane some time tuesday.. and move very close to carteret hyde and dare counties if not across them.
fay.. the low level remnant swirl is tracing i35 southwest in texas.. down near laredo now. offshore the primary feeder band is becoming a development threat. SFC obs indicating low pressures and some westerly winds on the west side of the convective line, with a strong easterly flow on the other side... and as the earlier posted discussion says, several models calling for low pressure to develop off the texas coast. personally thinking if anything comes together it will be east of brownsville. florida people, some of you are talking like it will be your problem. i doubt this.. would be unusual for a tropical system to hit central florida after forming off texas. models are likely seriously overdoing the late week amplification on/off the east coast. think it more likely a western gulf problem. but, if a low were to form in the central gulf.. then, maybe.
td 7 remnants, as bastardi mentions, not aware theyre supposed to be dead. not looking particularly good.. they got the bright idea to stall under the outflow jet from gustav (edouard exhibited this peculiar sadistic attitude). not moving west very fast, but not going away very fast either. low chances, but existent ones, that it will redevelop.
central atlantic wave.. thinking it may develop past 50w. very energetic.
HF 1805z09september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HF-
I agree with you, at the same time I have to point out that there was a storm..seems like it was back in the 70s...I'll check the tracks later. Anyway, it formed off the upper TX coast, moved SW along the coast, looped counter-clockwise, then moved ene/ne to or close to the Florida panhandle. My only point, especially in this bizarre season...it COULD happen. But, as you said, not very likely.
Apparently some of the Fl folks are concerned about a development in the central Gulf..the Raleigh AFD discussion (of all places) talks about this this morning.
IHS,
Charles
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caneman
Unregistered
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Actually systems that are the biggest threat for West Florida are off the Yucatan or coming up from from Sw Carrib to near BOC. In fact, last major Cane to hit Tampa area I'm fairly certain came from Eastern BOC and I also believe it was in September. Not saying this is going to happen just saying if it did and coming from that direction would be worse case scenario with tidal surge. We've had a few no name or T.S. systems coming from Sw or West that have caused serious flooding problems. Wait and see.........
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Caneman, Charles and Hank,
Actually, there ARE some climate cycles where Western Gulf cyclones do have significant West to East motion. It is an apparent shift of the Westerlies to a lower-than-typical latitude. Check out the Unisys or track archives for the 1870's and you will find several "Texas to Florida" storms. Some are really W. Gulf of Mexico to FL panhandle or FL W. coast, and some are Bay of Campeche- to NW Gulf - to FL panhandle or West Coast. But they're there if you look. The 1870's may have been our busiest tropical storm decade in FL, although it was almost impossible to tell which storms were canes, and which weren't then. With this year's activity in the Gulf being a possible anamoly from long term average, and with potential changes to the familiar Islands-to-Bahamas-to Hatteras boomerang pattern, it will be interesting to see what the Gulf patterns will be over the next several years. Long range climatology seems to show that the FL West Coast may be overdue for Westerly storms, even though they have gotten Caribbean and Yucatan action off and on over the past few years.
Climate history buff
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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In the meantime, it is clear that the low level exposed center is moving almost directly west over the last few hrs. I know the will probably 'smooth' the motion and say  wnw, but, it's there to see...ala Irene, smoothed is not the actual motion.
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There are at least three discrete 'pinwheels' in the circulation center area now, one of which is merging with another---it is just under the convective cluster to the s of the exposed LLCc--these two are merging together. The expose "primary" LLCC is moving west, overall the whole system seems to be hardly moving at all. Until this gets straightened out, no significant intensification will occur.
IHS,
Bill
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