Anonymous
Unregistered
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Appears far south on vis loops but still trying to form a center. I figure the somewhere near 10.5N/59W is where the rotation will focus, since the bands to the north/northeast are still a sickle shape. It is very close though, but even if it does interact with land, I think it is a go as it moves west norrthwest during the next couple of days, which may slow it's intensification. That isn't necessarily a good thing though down the road. Let's see what the recon finds. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I am eagered to know since I am in the caribbean.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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I to am interested in what recon has to say im wondering if we might have an emilly down there. It seems the isnt as good on updating its recon obs as much as they were last year does ne one notice this to or is it just me.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Don't know where the recon reports are but just put up a track map and show it at 30 knots. Maybe preliminary data they got in. But I believe we have TD #10. Should move to the WNW for the next coupla days. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Just took a look at the page and they have a Tropical cyclone formation alert: position 10.0N 59.0W moving WNW @15kts
www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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I'm just going to have to learn to type faster
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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It is becoming clearer to me that our soon-to-be TD#10/Isidore is not going to be sucked into South America. The only part of the system is the south side...barely edging extreme northern Venezuela. LLC is going to stay away from Venezuela it looks like. Slow development should occur in the E. Caribbean followed by more rapid intensification in C. Caribbean. Plenty of time to watch.
Hanna should be declared dead by tomorrow morning but very heavy rains a some gusty winds remain a threat through late tonight.
More thoughts to come later.
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TD appers to be forming east of Trinidad where pressure is 1010 mb. Likely little lower east of Trinidad where low pressure is located. Think we will see TD by late this afternoon. Motion should be toward WNW. There is some shear near 65w although this will weaken and is only a narrow area at best. So all in all conditions fairly favorable for further development. As all models pick up on this system and move it WNW or NW in time.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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looks as if it trinidad is gonna get hit, i think its a depression right now maby a storm but i dont think the will upgrade unless recon gives solid data or it starts to clear south amerrica. 
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Sorry,last post was me.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Definitely close to land Kevin. Let's see if she'll be affected greatly by this. I don't think it will wipe it out. Hey Jeanine, if I beat ya it musta been by nanoseconds :>) Time will tell as usual. 6Z is having problems with its intensity (close up) window. But it shows it crossing Cuba and near Islamarada at 120, assume as a hurricane. It doesn't really intensify it until it's just north of Cuba. So the model shifted westward from 0Z. Let's see first if we'll have a storm in the Eastern Caribbean. Hanna looked better coming on shore than she did last night!! She should begin to wind down. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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kevin storms dont exploded in the c carribean, they have to get w of haiti in the nw carribean to exploded usually.
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GOMF
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
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NRL just changed the wave entering the Caribbean to 10L.Noname...Cycloneye, too far south of PR so I guess we're safe.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Gilbert did
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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IR sat loop looks impressive. Low pressure center looks to be roughly near 10n/60w give or take a degree. Looks as though center will brush across Venezuela before turning more WNW.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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368
WONT41 KNHC 141813
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2:15 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS FOUND THAT A SMALL 25 TO
30 MPH CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.
THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
...is this too far south to actually survive??
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GOMF
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
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I meant "too far south" to affect PR...
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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TD#10 has formed first advisory out at 5 PM.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Im doubting more and more now that TD10 will be a south east issue more a yucatan issue or gulf. TD10 needs to gain some lattidude quickly if it wants to get to the southeast. Most of the models yesterday had it form much further north then it is now so im excpecting ne troughs to have les effect on TD10. The one model i did see where it hit venuswale had it continue through much like TS bret did in 93 and pop out in the sw carrib.
Late, Robert.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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As far as surviving, it all depends on which direction it will take. It survived so far so it has that going for it.
A litle more north of wnw in forward motion would help its survival rate. But, there have been storms that keep a steady w motion at that lat (Bret) and still survive, survive weakly, but they survive.
Edited by troy2 (Sat Sep 14 2002 02:40 PM)
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