Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Current shear or what very little there is will pull west towards Yucatan and GOM. The area over this system will be "very" favorable for development. This may strengthen quickly in next 24hrs or so as other posters have mentioned.
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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I am registered but I can't log in correctly. i think it's my computer. Anyway Kingston has reported winds up to 29 mph. Thats fine BUT they also reported pressure at 1007mb. Now if "recon" only got 1010 does that confirm that they truly were in the wrong place? Just thought I would mention that. Everyone on this board has some excellent posts. I really enjoy them. Keep up the outstanding work...nickd
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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I thought this was also interesting...TPC discussion 8:05pm
TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN...PREVIOUSLY ALONG 74W/75W
IS NOW ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 26N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE LAST
FEW AVAILABLE IMAGES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE TRYING TO FORM APPROXIMATELY 130NM SE
OF ERN JAMAICA WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS BEGINNING TO WRAP
BACK AROUND TO THE E NEAR 15N76W. EXTRAPOLATED INFLOW TO THE SE
OF THE MAIN CONVECTION ALSO INDICATES THAT A SECOND LOW/MID
LEVEL CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO FORM JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. WHETHER
THIS SYSTEM REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...AREAS
OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND ERN CUBA CAN EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 75W WITH ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG HISPANIOLA AND ERN CUBA.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Heres a link to some caribbean land observations....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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latest sat. photos from convection getting bigger stronger probably already a strong t.s. rapid strengthining could be tomorrow. shear in photos is moving away to the west.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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been obvious all afternoon that an LLC ran out ahead of the main convective mass. that thing is toast, running out there alone. if there is a secondary center forming in the convection.. thats the real deal. if it forms in the mid levels, also dont have to worry about it running away with the low level westerly flow.. you get a deeper system.
anyway no way to tell for sure, but with that kind of very deep convection firing and re-firing south of haiti youve got to think something cyclonic is trying to get going.
we'll know for sure if it starts getting a less amorphous signature and T numbers start going up. unless the sun rises first.
by the way, the fact that the convection hasnt moved has allowed it to distance itself from the upper trough ahead somewhat.. it IS in ideal development shape now. this is obvious by the outflow cirrus shield extending away from the convective mass in all direction.
got EVERYTHING it needs for sure, except an LLC.
by the way for future track.. synoptic pattern favors it to track wnw originally, then turning nw and north with time. whether it turns up in the bahamas or in the yucatan channel will make all the difference.
if this thing develops, it will not be a sissy storm, by the way. put a low level center with convective feedback in that environment for two or three days and youve got a major hurricane.
better hope it goes goofy and cant organize.. if it does somebody gets whacked.
HF 0104z17september
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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has it stopped?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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yes its stoped may head north then east fish man
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The tropical envelope is coming together. All the clouds in the entire carribbean area are coming together in a swirl around our storm. The clouds from the bahamas, cuba, hispanola, and all the windward and leeward islands. The larger envelope is beginning to feed the storm. This is an important ingredient in the formation of a major hurricane. Locations in the Keys and SE Florida may have TS Warnings and a Hurricane Watch as early as tomorrow 11am.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks as though the storm is starting to spin up on the IR i was looking at. I think it will soon start rapidly intensifying. By later tom. it will be at least a cat 1 hurricane. only i see taht could impede development is some dry air in front of it. it probably wont affect the system much though. Can someone give me some reasons why the storm wont hit the panhandle cuz i think it has a chance. i need an explantion please thanks.
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medic8ed
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Okay, so I've got an out-o'-town relative flying into Tampa this Saturday -- what do you think -- do I tell them to try again later or that they should come on down?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Everytime my brother from NY goes somewhere, a major weather event occurs. Sometimes a hurricane, sometimes a blizzard, sometimes a flood. He goes to Hilton Head and Hugo comes. He goes to the midwest and the floods of 93 arrive. Thursday, he comes to Florida. Guess where Isidore is going.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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remember last week we said when hanna first started it would go east never went east went north be ready these things always play a trick
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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no name at ten still wave looks hard to believe but they no best were is it going they said it has slowed down
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JustinMiami
Unregistered
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I live in Miami. Does anyone have any credible evidence or theories that the storm will impact here? If so, will it be a Cat 1,2,3 or higher? Just curious. I survived Andrew and I am not interested in another!
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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The most interesting thing about this, is that NONE of us have a real clue what this will do by tomorrow. However, that being said....these posts are excellent, and they are helping me learn more about these fascinating storms. Well, to be sure, if this one develops, it will be a nail biting gig, for sure. My thoughts are this...it is extremely south of where most of them ever come in at...has plenty of caribbean to get it's act together...and if it shoots through the Yucatan, and gets in the gulf...we may have a bigeeeeee on our hands....it feels like we are due for a bad one.......when i looked at the water vapor loops...(ohio state site)....it looks ominously perfect for things to real go bang...
we will see...
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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At the 11pm update on the , they of course are still talking about an open wave. The comment was made that the thunder storms were getting stronger because the wave was creating its own environment. Did I hear him correctly and if so is it possible for an open wave to create its own environment? Please comment! Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I haven't seen a whole lot of open waves create their own environment, but I guess anything is possible. Am I seeing the LLCC popping out at 16N 75W? Or is this just my imagination?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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another view of that same loop time
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g2/2xpxIRSatellite.html
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Nice picture, Troy!
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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