Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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But just because the eye is repositioned a few miles north (in this case 0 over 3), look at the overall envelope and understand it's on land. This should be pretty short lived IMHO.
Steve - but good catch bra
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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To all "wishcasters": I know nothing about the weather but I was in Homestead during Andrew and anyone who thinks a direct hit is anything other then the most frightening and devastating experience possible knows nothing about
meteorology. You can't talk to anyone because its too loud
you can't see anything including house framing flying through the air at 150 m.p.h. because its to dark. Imagine standing in front of a firing squad in the pitch black not knowing where the next bullet is coming from. All you can do is curl up in the corner of your "safe room" and think about all your friends and family you didn't get to say goodbye to because you are 100% sure you are going to die in the next few seconds . When you do live you get to see dead pets with swollen, rotting bodies and no hair (I guess the wind ripped it off after they flew miles in the air), people who have know idea who they are where they are why they are bleeding or if there even alive, people with every dream they worked for destroyed in 24 hours, and kids who scream in horror at night for months on end to the point where families move away from Florida forever. I check this site becuse I don't ever want to be near a hurricane again. If you think you might be in the path of one don't be a wishcaster just run fast and far away.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Well, Dr. Nighmare has spoken!
Buy the way, why does every little jog north bring out the term "wishcasters"? 
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
To all "wishcasters":
Dear Anonymous, First, I can relate to your comments having been essentially at ground zero during Camille (Biloxi), but I really think that an awful lot of the 'wishcasting' you refer to is actually 'FEARcasting'. I think even Shawn of Tx who seems to wish a 'cane to hit his area limits his 'desire' to a Cat1 storm, one that certainly can and might kill and most definitely would cause damage, but I've seen no one so far that WANTS a Camille, Andrew, Hugo or an Isadore on their doorsteps.....stating an opinion that it is gonna hit 'here' isn't wishcasting at all, but expressing the fear, born of the uncertainty this storm is causing.
The Pro's here certainly aren't wishcasting, but stating their educated opinions as to what their experience and training suggests the data indicates *might* happen, but I doubt that Jason, for instance, having stated an opinion that "his" area might be the target, is in any way hoping it will hit him or his viewers. If any wishcasting is occurring, it is wishing the storm would die a death over water and make landfall as a puffy little rain shower....we only want to be smart enough to predict where and when we need the umbrella....
PS...join our group, register and tell us who you are....There are too many people here with the same name: Anonymous...it gets confusing
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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As much as I dislike models right now, the latest and put it awfully close to New Orleans now. Look for the model links in the article.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Anyone that has been through a major hurricane would never wish another on themselves, or anyone else. I rode out Andrew just north of where the eyewall passed, and a couple of miiles south of where the radar blew off the top of the building it was on. I had friends and family in Homestead, Cutler Ridge and Country Walk, so I know first hand what you mean, but can't find the words to express it. A long time friend is writing a book "ten years after", I owe her a response to a detailed survey, but so far I haven't been able to sit down and fill it out. Too many bad memories. My mom and most of my friends lived in the curfew zone, so I had to go through multiple National Guard checkpoints to help them out. It was six months before I stopped jumping every time I heard a helicopter.
I also remember Donna when I was not quite 4 years old. The sound is what can't be described, or the smell after.
But I also think that most people, maybe all, on this site really don't hope a hurricance comes their way, but they are very concerned that it might. This can be interepreted as "wishcasting" but I don't think it is.
If Isidore should take a turn North (not just a wobble) then I have something to be worried about.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Fri Sep 20 2002 09:38 PM)
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Just to add a few more models to dislike, the A98E and LBAR show no SW movement, seem to be riding north on 90W, which is New Orleans.
Joe in Jax
GO JAGS
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Danya
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Brooksville
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OK. everyone. I've been reading Gary Gray's models, and watching Joe Bastardi's videos. But, today, shopping at "Ye Olde Wal Marte"...all the bottled water available in this county seemed to be GONE...and even though the models seem to be leading us to believe that this storm is going towards Mexico instead of here....how many of you really believe that? I'm prepared to go back to Wal Mart and pick up waterproof containers for all my business equipment (2 computers, 3 laptops, 1 fax, and 2 network phones) and pack it all up with the photo albums and get the heck outta here. (I live in a mobile temporaraily, thank you.) I was born an raised in Florida, and remember a storm as a child that sent my father and me dashing over the Courtney Campbell causeway in Pinellas/Hillsborough county to pick up my poor mother who was an emergency telephone operator who was stranded and could't get home. Sometime in the 60's I think. (I was very young.) Now I watch Izzy, with bated breath. The weather prognositicators in this area declare that Florida is out of danger. Do you...who study the weather, and don't have anything to prove to anyone...believe they're right?
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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fla. is not out of the woods yet, any one whos says they know where this monster will go ater 60 hours 72 dont know what they are talking about.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
The weather prognositicators in this area declare that Florida is out of danger. Do you...who study the weather, and don't have anything to prove to anyone...believe they're right?
I believe this storm would make a liar out of anyone who stated 'definitely yes', but it is indeed much less likely that the Central Florida area will be pounded. However, having said this, it is almost impossible to believe that at some point it won't turn north or north east and impact the US. It *could* happen otherwise but the odds are in favor of eventual impact in the Central to E GOM area. Hopefully not as a major storm...If and when it gets north of your latitude, you can start breathing much more easily, but even that is no guarantee...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Danya
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Brooksville
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Thanks. After watching Joe Bastardi today (such an appropriate name, God love him). I was a little unsure, but I tend to believe the non-professionals over the paid professionals.. Ya'll have to live here, after all. Not that I think Joe is not one one of the best. He's just a damn Yankee, and he can't help that, no matter how good a weatherman he is!
Thanks everyone who replied. I'm going to sleep a little more reassured now.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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...the number of posts tonight appear to be inversely proportional to the distance the storm is from a major population center....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
but I tend to believe the non-professionals over the paid professionals
By far and large, you SHOULD listen to the paid professionals....most do an excellant job and on the whole, while often wrong, are much less likely to be wrong when it counts. Often I accuse them of not looking out the window before they make their forecasts, but you must remember, a forecast is just an educated guess about the future, and no human alive that I am aware of, has knowledge of the future....they, we, are all guessing. Paid professionals tend to guess better, but it is still a guess. Don't blindly follow *anyone*, but use your own head and get as many facts as possible and draw your own conclusions, but DO listen to the experts...Sleep well...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I know thay keep saying it's going west, but it appears the trough to the northwest is having an effect on Izzy. The out flow has stoped expanding to the west and is being pushed to the north. Key West radar and last Recon fixes comfirm a north track the last few hours. Anyone else think Izzy is about as far west as he will get?
Steve
South Florida
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to Anyone else think Izzy is about as far west as he will get?
I hope not  The longer it goes West, the further it is from here and the more time it will take for it to get back, time perhaps to weaken.... In any event, no, I do think it will continue West a bit longer...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Fri Sep 20 2002 10:15 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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mike said south texas izzy will land there said new info that a high is going to bild in from the east and ther will be no way to go north gulf coast take your wood back shawn you called it
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jimmy99
Unregistered
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We began bringing in the troops from the offshore oil rigs yesterday down here in S. LA - especially the deepwater rigs. The 1800Z doesn't look too good for us, but who knows - we get lots of practice at moving out the guys. Hope we do not get to Phase 5 on the Storm Plan.
Steve in Old Metairie - What do you think Nash would say about our storm?
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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This URL of the current 'thinking' of the various models is interesting.... at the moment I'm not sure I'd want to be anywhere *in* the Gulf
http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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DopplerGal
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: S. E. Alabama
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It does appear that it will not continue much or maybe any farther West. But what does that mean?!?!?!
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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That basically tells me they don't have a clue where he's going! LOL Looks like he's stalled over the last three hours or so. I can't discern any movement. Of course, I'm not qualified to make that call.
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