Anonymous
Unregistered
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The daily tropical update is back. You won't find it on his web page, but you have to click on the "Video" tab and go down to the Tropical Update. He demonstrates the MRF's implications for the low pressure near the Yucatan Pen. for Florida in 5-6 days.
Steve
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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here is the link, Joe has some pretty interesting comments today. http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll?ID=860853
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Barry B
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
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Hi guys and Colleen. It's great to see all of you back this year. I just had time to sit down and register. I like the new stuff. I feel like I know each one of you guys. I posted last year as cajun this year I used my name. I am from Cameron Parish LA in the middle of Sean in Houston and Steve in Old Metarie. Looking forward to another year of storm Chasin with you guys and Colleen. 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Not much going on this morning. Upper low centered over SE LA and coastal MS generating some nice convection in extreme southern GOM heading off to the NE towards SW Florida.
A huge blob of convection coming off the coast of Africa but is to far south in the for any development IMO, now if it was up about 10 degrees north and this was August.... might be something to watch.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Barry B. glad to see you back on the board.
Northern Gulf Coast area being represented quite well on the board I might add.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Steve, check out Joe B tropical outlook today, very interesting. He has a very similar approach as I posted yesterday regarding grouping of land areas based on the affect of a hurricane as opposed to by state alone.
Our areas were not all group the same but the methodology and approach was similar, one big difference Joe had from mine is that he has nine groups, I had six, and that he grouped SW and SE Florida as one, which makes more sense from how I grouped them (east coast vs west coast).
Regardless, he has developed a scoring system based on landfall and intensity (based on pressure) and this year ranks the Hatterus area as having the highest strike zone of 3.2/1. South Florida and the Northern Gulf Coast (boothsville to fla panhandle) are next with a rating 1.75/1 and 1.70/1 respectively... you need to listen to the broadcast to understand his numbering system, overall he projects 5 landfalling storms, although one storm could strike more than one area.
Joe B, gotta love him cause he's not afraid to go out on a limb.
Here is the link...
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/video_index
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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...the area in the Gulf of Mexico. All 4 of our weather channels mentioned it last night. They said that although it's an "upper level low" we still need to keep a "very close eye" on it because the water temps in the Gulf are so high. Very unusual, because Denis (oh heck I forgot his last name) is usually very conservative when it comes to tropical storms. And he's usually 95% correct in his predictions.
Barry/Cajun...great to see you back again this year. 
Off to watch the loops. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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Well, i hope the area in the gulf comes to Fla. We need the rain, and relief from this heat, whoa! Its hot!!!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yeah, you got that right...they said that even though it's not showing any signs of development, it must be watched carefully. The Denis guy showed us all how it's spinning.
Well...I had a particularly difficult day yesterday...so I am going to go take a nap and get myself back together. We had an 8th grader who died last week and his funeral was yesterday, and believe me when I say.....I am as wrung out as a wet towel. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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The southern GOM has become a little more interesting late this morning.... Convection is still hanging around and the latest vis sat loop "hints" (and I use the term hints very loosely in this particular case) of maybe, just maybe, juussstttt maaaayyyybbbbeeeeee, a broad low level trying to develop with the system in the mid levels... did I say maybe....
Shear is playing havoc on the storms at the moment, especially in the central GOM so development will be hindered to say the least......
Where in the heck it everybody today?
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Anonymous-(DOUG)
Unregistered
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CHECK OUT THE WATER VAPOR IN THE GULF...NOTHING TROPICAL THERE.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Yes, we are...
Buoy and ship data confirm that this is a upper-level feature with little, if any, surface reflection...so will it evolve into something surface based?
There are two schools of thought from the models on this...the ETA/NGM/NOGAPS are keeping it a upper-level system only...while our friend the AVN create a surface reflection as a closed low, taking it north to near Mobile in a few days...
So which do we believe? In general, in this situation you'd lean (in general) towards the AVN, with it's better assimilation and global domain...the ETA isn't really equipped for this, with it at the edge of it's domain. However, the AVN has well-documented problems with early season over-development and spurious low development. Still, I do like the rather aggressive AVN moisture fields today, but am not as impressed with the pressure fields. I'm not betting for low development in the Gulf (there is a LOT of shear), but it wouldn't surprise me to be wrong.
As always, your mileage may vary....
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Jason Kelley
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SirCane
Unregistered
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Lot of convection with a pressure of about 1013 mb.
Could something brew?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Good discussion of the situation from NWS Mobile...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002
WEATHER PATTERN PROVES DIFFICULT IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...FORECAST
AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FEATURES. 1) A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND 2) A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF.
<snip>
THE SECOND
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF WHAT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS TO BE AN INVERTED TROF OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SLIDE THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ETA SHOWING
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE AVN IS MORE ROBUST...CLOSING OFF A
SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ON
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE AVN MODEL
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE A PRODUCT OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE INTO THE SYSTEM
OVER WARM GULF WATER TEMPERATURES (26-28C>80-83F). IF THE AVN
SOLUTION IS BELIEVED...THEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIER ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THAN WHAT WOULD BE THE EXPECTED IN THE WEAKER SOLUTION AS
ADVERTISED IN THE ETA. ALL IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
GULF. STAY TUNED. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION COVERAGES WILL BE INTRODUCED MUCH OF
THE TIME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUDS AND
EXPECTED RAIN COVERAGES.
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Jason Kelley
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm pretty certain something will not develop in the GOMEX. I just looked at some loops of the area, and there doesn't really appear to be any circulation, it's a disorganized mess, and there is too much sheer. Well, it's off to the west coast of Florida to vacation for a few days. I'll be back to post by Thursday or Friday.  
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well there must be some potential there. There is a hint of rotation on the vis loops, but more noticeably is the fact have put an invest on this system, and it is now 92L... I am unsure as to any further development, but it would not surprise me to see this thing close off a surface low. I think this for two reasons... 1) the fact there is a lot of convection in the eastern half means that any upper level circulation MAY be drawn down, but also 2) the fact the Gulf is so warm could instigate further convective development, and thus cause a LLC to develop...
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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oops.. i forgot to log in... the previous post was made by me
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Carl
Unregistered
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My eyes may be playing tricks on me, but could that be a low or mid-level circulation trying to form at about 25N and 89W?
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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I read Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Outlook today and I found it somewhat interesting and a little obvious,I respect J.B. and he brought up some pretty interesting views on why Hurricanes happen and their purpose in this world and seasons with 9 - 12 storms etc...,and I agree and I'm open to anyones opinions and hypothesis',but the obvious parts are his landfall areas he predicts,you can't go wrong with that outlook because just about every season the areas he mentioned are the most prone areas anyway which are the Carolinas,South Florida and Louisianna,now if you say that S.Texas or New England is 3.2 and it turns out that indeed that area gets hit a few times, now you are on to something,that said,don't get me wrong I watch J.B. all the time and look forward to his outlooks,but I allready knew in January that the Carolinas,South Florida and Louisianna might feel the effects of a Hurricane this year.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I just looked at the visible loop off of the site and it looks to me like the circulation might be moving towards the west with the storms themselves moving off towards the north and northeast.Can someone take a look and tell me what you find because sometimes it is hard for me to tell? 
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