LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Fair point Robert
Web page w/good map
Unfortunately, it's a moot point since this area of disturbance (in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Central America and Columbia at 76W/19N) is moving west and has strong convection and t-storms, but no organization.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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Listen gang, don't know where your minds are.. Maybe all star game, maybe off fishing, brooding over a slow season but pay attention to the loops please.
Colleen is right as there is something spinning.. the salt is spinning, add some pepper and this is the best thing we've had out there in days .. in my opinion.
Maybe someone uses wrong terms... correcting us is good when we make obvious mistakes..its the way we learn but down there in the infamous SW Carib.. its raining and there IS a swirl so look again. And, I don't think its heading west..think its sort of sitting and congealing.
btw..rained in miami today, HARD
wake up gang from whatever you are preoccupied with and look at the loops
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
and do not tell me nothing is happening
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Bobbi:
It appears to just be the tops of the thunder storms clouds being shear off with the strong SW shear. I wouldn't worry about it. Would need a few days of not moving.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Old Sailor,
Tend to agree, looked at wv loops, ir loops and vis loops and it is definitely moving west...perhaps wnw or even nnw, but west and over land...on it's way to the East Pac. Perhaps a piece of energy can split off and try to make it's way north, but there is simply too much shear even out to 72 hours. Unfortunately, no real chance for development with this one...and I was on top of this since yesterday and really thought it had a chance. 
On another note, the big wave that exited Africa is forecast by the UKMET to reach the Islands by this weekend, so that's something to watch, if nothing else. Elsewhere there's just too much dry air and dust for anything to get going.
Oh well,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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you might be surprised
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Still looking at the loops, and it's still got a spin to it. Even the TWD says it's able to develop t-storms despite the shear. I'm with you, Bobbi...wouldn't write it off just yet.
I don't see any movement to the W either, LI Phil. Parts of it, perhaps, but not all of it.
Robert...the reason I said Caribbean is simple. The loops I was looking at say "WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN", NOT the GOM. You can't even see it on the GOM loops.
Colleen 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Bastardi put out a note on the SWC and Gulf today. He mentioned that the MLC heading SW through the gulf could get entangled with the wave axis pulling west. He doesn't think it's a go (noted the models) but that the main thrust of the wave would head westward through Central America. It's a wait and see as to whether or not any of the SWC convection can get pulled up to the northwest. Another interesting note he dropped that I hadn't picked up on was the similarity in the pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean to 1999 (nobody's analog that I can remember). He mentioned Bret which kind of formed in the BOC from a wave that snuck in from the SWC but that was in August rather than July. He pondered whether this is telling us something for later on in the season (one may recall he's got Texas at > Cat 2 influence this year).
Interestingly SW FL got hit by 2 mini-storms that year too (if the Gulf pattern ends up following in the footsteps of 1999).
FWIW, here's the Bret FAQ.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey Colleen,
I really do want it to develop, I really do. It's just that even if a piece stays over open water and somehow makes it to just south of the Yucatan, the sheer will shred it to bits. It's starting to get frustrating going this deep into the season without so much as a TD (well, at least an "official" TD). Think there's a general consensus on this board that the storm which trashed Hispaniola in late May was a TD, even if not so designated.
Steve, yeah I read about Bret this am from Joe, but didn't pay it much mind...read your FWIW...forgot how quickly Bret formed and how quickly he intensified -- from 90 kts to 125 in under 6 hours. Certainly not one for the record books, but it does show to go ya that under better conditions (like time of year-August), these things can get cranking and in a hurry.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i've heard sc and bobbi pointing and fussing about two particular areas for the last couple of days; reserved comment (decided both would go away, never amount to anything.. the weather, not the people). but neither system has made as quick an exit as i suspected, so i'll give them each a prop this afternoon.
sw caribbean is wave action at the surface with upper ventilation that is staying in place.. perhaps some weak convergence. expected 850mb easterlies to clean this area out, send it eastpac-king.. but it's insisting it's there today (as is bobbi). like a meteorologic god i am willing it to leave the basin as it should.. yes, very little doubt it's leaving the basin. if it's nudging the yucatan tomorrow i'll start paying attention.
now, the gulf thing. something so terribly insignificant for the last couple of days i can't believe the feature is lingering. summercyclone is even worse than me when it comes to poking around the subtropics for slim-to-none features (incredible). it's in an area of some upper divergence (decent-good for development).. and has a very weak surface trough.. and then there's scattered -aided convection. again, i am willing it to go away, or drift west into mexico. of course even without looking at models i know heights are going to fall over the eastern u.s. late in the week, and that should keep it's westward progress slow. i'd say it has slightly more of a chance.. if it lingers in the gulf. but it has a hell of a long way to go.
east atlantic isn't causing much ruckus. waves come off and melt like the wicked witch of the west. there's the blas clock, and the upstream implications of it's presence (probably aiding the riding over the sw caribbean via upper wake effects).. over the weekend and into early next week would be the window if that correspondence were to work. it's usually more of an august-september thing, prolly no dice.
there's really nothing happening, that was all too much to write. phil, it's a'ite, you can put the nix on the 'good post' thing. i won't feel bad, for one. constructive criticism is my preferred feedback (just the way i am).
..otherwise, i might start making bad posts just to spite you.
HF 2231z13july
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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HF, great post...as al (oops).
>>> ..otherwise, i might start making bad posts just to spite you LOL!
Thanks for pointing these things out. Gives me a little more confidence to start making more assertive (rather than "opinionated") posts as I'm slowly learning from the masters. I think you're in agreement with me that if we don't get some kind of development in the next week or so, with the projected flip as well as other seasonal factors, we're probably not going to see anything until 8/10 and beyond. You, Steve & Rob Mann all have alluded to this fact, as has Bastard(i).
Haven't checked it this evening, but if you get a chance, is the UKMET still trying to put the latest African wave into the islands by this weekend? I think this may be our last, best shot a development for a long time...but, once mid august hits...we should have quite a bit of development.
Cheers!
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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Listen normally I don't jump up and down and go gaga over the SW Carib. Seriously detest the Carib and any mention of it most of the time.
But in a hostile enironment I think its within climo and possibilities for it to develop a bit or at least hang in there.
Fact that Bastardi and others even mentioned it is the proof in the pudding so to speak..what kind of pudding I dont know.
Check it out tomorrow.. maybe when Blas moves off into the blue pacific?
As for little annoying things.. only BIG annoying things bother me.
take care... bobbi
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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testy? nah, i'm a mellow guy. meticulous, though. usually i'm the one pointing out impossible situations just to cover the bases.. tried to fight the urge, but you (bobbi) and sc bird-dogged those features and they kept lingering.. my ability to deny their existence was only so much.
so anyway i added mention and emphasis that neither has a chance. 'das all.
HF 0430z14july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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This "thing" in the GOM/Caribbean/Wherever is going to do one of three things shortly:
Disappear
Start Happenin'
Drive us to Drink
I'm not gonna argue over this flip and that flop; in the end all that really matters is whether or not it develops. If it does, it does. If it doesn't, it doesn't.
It doesn't mean we have to go on and on about who's right and who's wrong. Let the politicians stick that particular area of expertise. 
Peace
Colleen
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JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
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The low level steering flow should continue to push the wave west. The wave was in the central Caribbean a couple days ago, so it's definately progressing westward. There is a slight chance that some moisture can get pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico, but upper level winds are marginal in that area.
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Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Check out the extremely vigorous system currently over Africa. If it reaches the Atlantic in a similar state maybe it will have a chance for development. This one looks like it is a little further north than the waves which have emerged recently. Perhaps this will be something to watch down the line...
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Looking good this morning....wave in western africa. Wave at 25W not looking too bad either. Cheers!!
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Looks good over land .. Wondering what the Atlantic holds in store for it? I will have to watch it a couple of days and see if it indeed should be watched. Might have to sharpen my pencil again. Seems strange to me that everything is so far south this year. Central America should get some nice rains.
Waiting for the first Little one to track. Keep your eyes open we never know when the first may occour.
Have a great day all.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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The has been staying negative and the SST's have been somewhat increasing around the equator. I know most of the pros have said neutral for this season and I hope there right. The question is when will EL Nino be truely established?? The waves are starting to look like the last El Nino when they came off and poof. I think it is more climo then any El Nino effect. I still think around 14 names this year because it's still early and there are more + then - effects for this season.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 14 2004 10:34 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Wow...if the present waves coming off of Africa are any indication of what the CV season holds, we may be in for a heck of a ride. We may not be seeing much now, but I think that will change soon.
Colleen 
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Thanks for bringing that up, I recognized the pattern as being familar, but couldn't remember the year. The north flow over the Gulf is what I remember, not very climo. It may bring a MCS down that occasionally can develop (think Danny back in , what year was that??? 97?, for example), but, generally, it disrupts, not aids.
Interesting MCS again s of La, that pattern can only repeat so many times before something happens...
sc 
Edited by summercyclone (Wed Jul 14 2004 10:44 AM)
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