javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Ed what is going on with 90L.I mean you can see two different winds at the lower.The northern one going CCW and the southern one is CW.The two winds converge over 90L.What is causing the southern wind?Leave it to me to go talk bad about 99L and it takes off.Glad to see it something to watch finally.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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James & Luis,
LOL! No, I haven't popped the cork yet. Been busy here and on some other weather sites. Don't worry though I will.
By the way, there's a new sheriff in town...that's all I'm gonna say.
STAY TUNED!
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If you look at the latest visible image, TD #1 has a few flare - ups of convection going on. Maybe it will organise faster than is currently being forecast.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like disturbance in east atlantic is getting very well organized. not long before its trop. storm
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Rainband
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 4
Loc: florida
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Drink some for me.  Looks like the tropics are finally heating up 
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~Johnathan~
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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I am very surprised that nobody has commented about how Ed came the closest guess. I was at the Space Center today and heard unconfirmed reports that there was a "met" on the beach doing a "TD Dance". If my timing is correct it was shortly after the hurricane hunters left the invest. I think Ed must have some reverse Dyna-gel. 
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike,
Read the FIRST page of this thread. I even did a poll on it!
LOL!
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Look out for the Gulf of Mexico this week too! Storms are flaring up around the low.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The convection associated with the system seems to be on the increase. I wonder if it will reach 30kts by the next advisory.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TD1 is really looking good on satellite. I wonder if this will become TS Alex before 2 pm tomorrow, as is the current forecast.
Just popped the champagne. Didn't even realize it but there was a Veuve split all the way in the back of the fridge, so I'm greatly enjoying that instead. Oh baby.
Cheers (literally),
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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... From me being right for once with my perdiction.
(No named systems in July)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Phil and Duchess, you got the times reversed. It is 4 hours ahead in EDT and 5 hours ahead in EST.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Uh, sorry there, chief. Hate to correct a fellow Yankees fan, but trust me, it's 5 hours ahead in Daylight Savings Time. Think about it: Spring ahead, fall back. We push the clocks ahead during DST, and back during standard time. Nice win today.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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GMT is 4 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight (Savings) Time (EDT), and 5 hours ahead of EST.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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You guys are both right...and I haven't even finished half a glass of champagne. When we move the clocks ahead one hour, we move one hour CLOSER to GMT. I'm totally screwed up. Amazed DD also goofed. So sorry.
GMT (Zulu/UTC) is 4 hours ahead of EDT and 5 hours ahead of EST. OK, I think I finally got it. What a moron am I.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
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Mea Culpa.
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Good or bad, weather is all there is.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 312340
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH LATER
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N...78.6 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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the 8 pm streghth is the same
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Not much movement over the last few hours.Seems htat TD1 will get to develop even more.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Guys,
Mike put up a new thread. You might want to move your posts over there
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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