cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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I agree Javlin...If you look at the history of storms over the last 15 years only a couple of paths take that hard turn North. That is....storms that were born in the lower latitudes like TD2. I think this one will move westerly for some time and maybe even get as far west as 90 Longitude. An example of one storm in August that didn't turn north and came from the same neighborhood about this time of year was Andrew in '92. The next 36 to 48 hours will obviously make or break the models. Many conditions factor in as always.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The eye is beginning to become quite distinctive on visible satellite. The have Alex peaking at 105mph, but you can never be sure with this storm. Thanks for the definition Rabbit.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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in a 1 pm advisory the pressure is down to 970mb
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Taking big chance; took one yesterday with regard to this new TD when I said the trough would not dig deeply on its southern end to allow this system to feel it, and I'm sticking to it. Why, and i'm not basing this on anything except trying to discern the progression of the trough toward the east coast: I see the makings of an ULL in the central GOM. If that happens then I don't see the southern part of the trough reaching far enough east to pull the system north.
There is however the remants of last week's trough ahead of it which seems to have a sw-ne axis directly over Hispanola, and that could be why the models pull it abruptly to the north in a couple of days. But as for now it is not as far north as originally thought, due to its speed I think, and the projectd path is already left of where the current runs place it.
Maybe somebody can explain the science in the development of the "wide trough" over the East coast that the is discussing as the influence on the system in 3-4 days. Don't see it so far.
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doug
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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from the 1 pm advisory "AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...WITH A GUST TO
83 MPH...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM OKRACOKE ISLAND. ANOTHER UNOFFICIAL REPORT WAS RECEIVED FROM HATTERAS VILLAGE OF 65 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH A GUST TO 86 MPH."
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the position advisories seem to be comming in every hour
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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it was an actual advisory. the next one come at 3pm instead of 2. there was a 12 pm position estimate if thats what you mean.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Check out the radar - Hatteras now looks like it is just sticking out into the eye:-
Alex's eye
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Is there some debate on whether or not this qualifies as a land falling storm?
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doug
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Is the eye just clipping Hattaras? I'll report, you decide:
Alex at Landfall?
And, as for Bonnie, anyone agree with this track:
Bonnie
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 03 2004 01:34 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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URNT12 KNHC 031708
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1708Z
B. 35 DEG 08 MIN N
75 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2834 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 123 DEG 79 KT
G. 030 DEG 016 NM
H. 972 MB
I. 10 C/ 3134 M
J. 19 C/ 3143 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 0801A ALEX OB 32
MAX FL WIND 98 KT SE QUAD 1614Z.
Notice that Alex's pressure has gone up by two Mb, so any significant intensification looks a little less likely.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Here is an example of what I think that Rabbit was referencing:
HURRICANE ALEX POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
AT 12 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
They are issued during the hours when an Advisory is not being issued and the storm is close to land. Data source is normally radar.
ED
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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remember yesterday that the pressure around midday rose a few millibars
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I suppose so. Whatever the case, Alex sure looks impressive at the moment on visible satelite. If ever there was a storm that caught us off guard, it was Alex. Perhaps it will intensify slightly, and it's only 15mph away from major hurricane status.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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From the radar images I am looking at, which was from Moorehead City between around 17:10 and 17:40 UTC, the eye seemed to have expanded to include just the tip of Cape Hatteras, almost like Alex was stretching out just to touch land. And right now it looks like Alex is wobbling and the center might go back over land.
Bill
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Doug:
Use to be my understanding it was concerned a land fall when the center of the eye hit land. Guess we need to see what calls it.
Dave
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Anyone interested in seeing some Alex video should check it out here...
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/
As we speak, they have some footage in the can and are moving to a new location, so check back often...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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i thought it was 11mph away. but that eye is devloping.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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i've been there all morning but cant get the hirt update. says widows media cant connect.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thanks for the great link Phil! 
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