Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just looked at the new track map on Orlando's Channel 9 and Polk County is back in the mix. Is Stewart saying that another shift to the south is possible to the track at 5am or was he talking about the current one? I'm thinking he's talking about the next track.
Also...they just mentioned that Polk County could see winds 50-75mph w/16+" of rain. I take it those are sustained winds. If there was any good news out of that forecast, it was that we would be on the "good side" of the hurricane. I suppose that could change if the track changes more to the west again.
Also mentioned that the could do something unprecedented: issue hurricane warnings in the morning for what is now under hurricane watch areas. That would indicate to me that they are NOT looking for a turn to the north/north-west and they are not expecting to come to a screeching halt as was mentioned earlier.
Am I on the right track here? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Out to 6 hrs so far....
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Jason Kelley
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MIAMIFL
Unregistered
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MAYOR ALEX P. IN DADE COUNTY SAYS "BUSINESS AS USUAL TOMORROW", EVEN WITH THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY CORRECTION IN THE NEXT 5 HOURS -- GO FIGURE
WARNING EXPECTED FOR DADE BY 5 A.M. ACCORDING TO NORCROSS
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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H2Ocean,
Get out of there, dude! I've seen the models for Merrit Island. I'll post them if I find them. Merritt Island wills disappear if hits near there. You won't have time to evacuate by the time you figure that out. A sturdy house won't do you much good if it has five feet of water on top of it.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Still confused though since the 0Z run has been out since after 10 and shows the same path. LOL. Odd stewart wouldnt see this. Maybe he ment to 6z run? who knows. Any reply on that Jason? Clark? TY
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Phil, Sorry about my comments. I didnt see the point you were making. I now understand you were just trying to narrow down the track for the sake of all of us so we dont go crazy. I think this storm has already taken a high toll on alot of us, and its still 48-72 hours from landfall. This past month has been amazing huh?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm guessing that was misinterpreted along the way. The information we are getting now is probably what was feeding in at . I would guess that the bad data was with regards to the strength of the ridge, which they found out about by dropping the dropsondes. Right information, probably confused as it went through a few ears...
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I can't speak for Mr. Stewart, but I think he is anticipating the 00Z runs to be further west (as am I) and that might necessitate a need to shift the track a little further west/south.
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Jason Kelley
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Maybe it's the contrarian in me, but I am going with a farther north solution. The has taken a beating of late, but now the ETA is much farther N. and E., and so were some of the other models, so now it needs to be seen whether or not bad data was entered. Bolstering this in my opinion, is that I think the stretching out of the storm is an indication it may be trying to turn. Every time a situation like this comes up, I think of Gilbert. It was supposed to turn between the Yucatan Pen. and recurve, but the monster created its own environment, and would not turn. How high is my confidence? It's looking up at my feet.
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Tanbark
Unregistered
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Hank, thanks for the good post. I'm in Murrell's Inlet, S.C., about 15 miles S. of Myrtle Beach. Just how "out of the picture" is upper coastal S.C.?
not very likely it will come your way. if the storm is bending right tomorrow, consider the possibility... but this one is most likely going ashore well south of you. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:26 AM)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I think they are being cautious at this point because they don't know what the data correction is going to do to the models.
What I read between the lines in Stewart's discussion is that it is possible that the model consenus will shift further south and west. If this shift is significant, they will have to go with Hurricane Warnings for areas that a few hours ago were thought to be on the left edge of the cone, or outside it, and are now in the middle of it.
I have great respect for the folks at the , and it is times like this that I am very glad I don't work there.
Bill
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The 00Z is NOT out...it is coming out as we speak....as I answered above, the correct data is incorporated into the 00Z runs, which are running NOW.
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Jason Kelley
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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OMG sorry Jason,,,Talk about lack of sleep????I been looking at the 12Z run, Jason Fire me and bring in Rick on a boat to replace me. LOL I need more sleep then work and rest of time analizing all the data I get and info from other, zzzz even my girlfriend got mad cause i wouldnt go to a movie.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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thru 36hrs so far,,same as 18Z run. It has this going 325dg.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Why would anyone want to go to a movie with a major landfalling hurricane going on?? 
Bill
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lis
Unregistered
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I am in Fort Lauderdale. Can anyone tell me what their opnion is if I leave in the early am tomorrow and drive up the to coast of NC, do you think I will be able to make it out of the state before this thing hits? I value all of your opions. Please help. Thanks.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Changed the format of this map to include more streets, highways and cities. Also included approximate path of for reference.
I will update the Wind Field graphics with the next significant change in coordinates.
More detailed map
Colleen, if you are over by George Jenkins HS (sluethed by prior posts), you are definitely in the wind field based on 11pm advisory. According to the forecast, the HS is exactly 52 miles from the center of the eye at 8pm Saturday (if I calculated the time right)
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Doombot!
Unregistered
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Quote:
Changed the format of this map to include more streets, highways and cities. Also included approximate path of for reference.
I will update the Wind Field graphics with the next significant change in coordinates.
More detailed map
Colleen, if you are over by George Jenkins HS (sluethed by prior posts), you are definitely in the wind field based on 11pm advisory. According to the forecast, the HS is exactly 52 miles from the center of the eye at 8pm Saturday (if I calculated the time right)
Skeeto: Based on your map I think you live about a mile from our house.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Skeeto...you just made my knees weak. I live right across the STREET from George Jenkins High School. We walk to the football games there. When you say "windfield", what kind of winds are you talking about? (I'm hoping for the best here, can ya tell?)
My husband is so mad at himself for not getting that generator. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Awesome graphic Skeeto! I did have a fondness for the Cone of Hurricane Winds. But I love the map, and the overlay of the path is brilliant! (Even if I am just slight NE of where they cross, which gives me a queasy feeling.)
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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