FLHurricane.com: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic

They're both right. That larger statement was for the overall area, and there are some locations that could receive those winds. Just not Orlando, a good 75 miles inland as the crow files to the southeast.

The storm, despite having excellent outflow all day, has been gradually weakening. I don't think that's bound to continue, however. A combination of an eyewall replacement cycle along with the disruptive forces of the islands has led to what we've seen today. The eyewall replacement is probably about done, though it remains open on the SW side. The islands are still going to inhibit the inflow as long as the storm moves along the spine of the Bahamas, but shouldn't be enough to lead to further weakening.

Current thinking - a NW jog should last for another 6 hours, then bend back to near WNW (or slightly south of that) towards the coast. The old upper low that has been in advance of the storm has reared it's head again today and has impacted the track just a bit to the north -- not totally unexpected, to tell the truth. It's almost a quasi-Fujiwhara effect, but not quite. However, shortly the storm should begin to round that low and get accelerated slightly to the WNW across Florida. Erin (95) isn't a bad analog for this storm's track, albeit probably slightly more northerly across the state.

Landfall near Ft. Pierce, a bit further north of my position of WPB, is looking pretty good. I'm almost certain there will be a second landfall on the Gulf coast, but the models disagree as to where and how strong. Personally, just off of experience, I would suggest somewhere in the Apalachicola area - between Panacea and Ft. Walton Beach, only so large because of the orientation of the coastline - as a high end tropical storm or minimal hurricane. In any case, most of Florida is going to receive a LOT of rain from this storm...5-15 inches in parts.

BTW, one last tidbit. The outflow from Howard in the EPac is getting shunted somewhat around the high currently steering . The heat released as a result of the outflow is serving to pump up the ridge a bit more, something that should keep going a bit further south. It is also worth noting that the 12Z models AGAIN did not initialize the height field correctly: the , previously the best performer, was the worst, whereas the and Eta (et al) were only slightly better. They were still 20-30m too low - and for the , almost 40m in spots.

That's where we sit now...more later if events warrant.

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