LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Phil... am sorry... think you were right..its taking at least 13 days from when we argued over it to make landfall. I was wrong. Are we going for 23?
Bobbi,
that's about the ONLY thing I got right about this monster. Be safe...you're probably OK in Mia...respect the cone...love it.
For the rest of you guys in the cone...follow the , not us...although...they won't be PMing you with up to date guesscasts...lol.
Seriously, though...Mike & John have made more info available on this site than you can imagine...you might have to click a few links...but you'll find it.
Godspeed Florida
Had to update this post...just heard one of the funniest comments I've EVER heard: "Airports are not public shelters." (from and reiterated by Stephanie Abrahms). If you saw JFK (up by me), you might disagree.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 01:35 AM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Jason what do you think of the models tending more NNW along the coast in the 0Z run. Havnt checked the Ukmet but and with ETA say this might parrel florida coast.
Also do you think they will adjust back to the west?
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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2am
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I don't interpret those models that way....the 00Z is practically a mirror of the track placed about 75-100 further north...the Eta is slower but has very little parallel motion (no more than 4-6 hrs) as does the ...I see no real implied paralell motion to the coastline from the 00Z runs...at least not anything over a few hrs.
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is from the last Recon fix:
URNT12 KNHC 030528
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0528Z
H. 954 MB
P. AF985 2006A OB 35
MAX FL WIND 92 KT E QUAD 0304Z.
92KT equals 105.94 mph. And that's at Flight Level!
I'm not saying the winds aren't 120mph. It's just the data from Recon doesn't support that wind speed report.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:12 AM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Jason what do you think of the models tending more NNW along the coast in the 0Z run. Havnt checked the Ukmet but and with ETA say this might parrel florida coast.
Hey scottsvb, missed you for a while.
Hopefully JK can answer that one...I'm not a met though. I did want to say, for the UMPTEENTH time...and the real mets can agree/disagree with me...this has been one of the most difficult (and remains that way) storms to predict/forecast. I've already bulked crow from my initial Hattaras forecast (thought that was more than a week ago and I never did gather the stones to refine it...always wishcasted it north and east...burned like the toast I get from my favorite diner).
At this point, and as a mod..I'm now out of the guesscasting game...refer to NWS. I will say it is a FL hit. That's as far as I'm willing to go.
I can only hope the present weakening trend continues but unfortunately...these are facts...ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) probably complete...CAT IV strengthening probably on Friday...warm SSTs...low shear...NOT GOOD.
If I had a met degree I might make a forecast but I don't.
JK? ED? Clark? Even Kev or Mike or HF or Ribbit or Scottsvb what's the calll? I don't want to eat any more crow...quite frankly...I'm full!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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fred08
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 030558
97779 05584 60259 77010 30700 06063 1110/ /3075
RMK AF985 2006A OB 39
what are thee fl winds in this danielw.....just making sure i see what i see..... 11 mins ago
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fred08
Unregistered
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61616 AF985 2006A OB 36
anyone see this Dropsonde Observations?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT3.shtml?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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97779 05584 60259 77010 30700 06063 1110/ /3075
...........0558Z.N-25.9 77.0W 300mb? 060 at 63kts temp11c dewpoint 10C. I think the last is surface wind 030 at 75kts
060degrees( ENE) at 63kts. 72.54 mph
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:20 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I think the difficulty came in the believability of the model data...not the forecasting part itself...I think that Clark and I would agree that other than subtle nuances, this analysis of the situation was not terribly hard, or at least not abnormally hard..it was just that what we had analyzed and what the models were saying were many times not meshing very well. The met community has become very model driven...at the expense of good analysis...that is why I respect Stacy Stewart...he doesn't start with the model data, he starts with a GOOD analysis of the current setup, and proceeds from there with a good idea of what good data should and should not look like.
Anybody can read a model....forecasting well is an entirely different skill.
Off to bed...need some rest for the weekend.
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Jason Kelley
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john03
Unregistered
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anyone got sats back?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It shouldn't be too long now. Hopefully less than 15 minutes.
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john03
Unregistered
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heading home
URNT11 KNHC 030626
97779 06264 60271 78400 31000 06037 1252/ /3138
RMK AF985 2006A OB 40
LAST REPORT
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john03
Unregistered
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anyone got sats back?
nothin like being blind.......
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You are reading my mind. I just checked 3 sites, and nothing but old shots. They are running late tonight. Figures!
I double checked the eclipse chart and it was supposed to be over at 0611Z. That was 50 minutes ago.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 03:00 AM)
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jth off
Unregistered
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Not yet, but I imagine it wont look very good as the pressure has continued to rise. She seems to be falling apart.
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john03
Unregistered
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wow.....
645z
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666
Unregistered
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It looks like its a dud this storm is a total lost  
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jth off
Unregistered
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Post the link...I still can't get it.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sats are now up!!
Looks like she trying to rebuild her eyewall.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 03:01 AM)
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