LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Agreed. is the story. It does like like he's encountering some northerly shear, but he has regained a robust eye...
wv loop
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I don't think it is shear as much as appears to be having some interaction with the land mass. Getting close to the island and there are some frictional issues with some mountains. Not as bad as what Dominica would do, though.
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tpratch
Unregistered
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Quote:
I honestly think the world is going nuts. This guy might TRY to rent a tanker, but first he's going to have to get the "thousands of pounds" from wherever he's keeping it, bring it to an airport and file a flight plan. I highly doubt that the FAA is going to let someone put thousands of stuff on a tanker plane when they don't know what EXACTLY that stuff is. Ain't gonna happen.
Nice effort on his part, though. 
True story.
The folks at Dynomat were (by proxy) clients of mine once upon a time when I ran a design studio. They were working with a company that had B-57 Canberras that were loaded with some of the stuff and then dropped onto storms.
I'm sure they have material data safety sheets for the stuff or else nobody would be able to work around it. Consequently, they would be able to tell folks exactly what was in the stuff.
The company that owned the Canberras have since *snicker* evaporated from this town (I hear that they are being sought for defrauding their investors). I'm sure that's the only reason they haven't dumped anything on a storm this season and why they're trying to find a tanker to rent now.
/true story.
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Gerald
Unregistered
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I'll bet this one will veer off the W Coast and move north past the Tampa Bay area. Steering currents will cue it up.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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In the last 25 posts or so, I hear about shearing, more easterly tracks, and slowing down. This is all what Thomas' email said in my post about one hour plus ago. He may be right on the money again.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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The way he's elongating, it appears to my untrained eye like he's ready to make a turn, but it's way to early for that. However, can someone explain to me exactly what feature is preventing that? Isn't there a ridge in the GOM that would encourage a turn now?
Still learning...
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Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I really don't understand the logic in this. I'm guessing it is more political then scientific reason for not moving the track.
From the 5:00PM discussion:
"However...models are becoming in better
agreement on a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although
the official forecast could have been shifted a little westward due
to the new guidance...it is not prudent to make a change at this
time. The official forecast is now basically to the right of the
guidance envelope...and keeps the hurricane on a northward track
very close to the Florida West Coast."
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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By the way it's slowing down, though, i'm not as sure on it's track anymore. I agree that the eye is much more distinct than earlier today and Jahmaica is in for a rough ride. I wonder how a slowdown would affect a timetable and forecast track for ? I've also seen how less symetrical has turned and on the WV, it looks to be due, in part, to outside atmospheric influences rather than island interaction.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hmmm. Based upon the new update, the is making this a panhandle/big bend hit.
wunderground 5 day
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 04:41 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I thought it looked like he was getting sheared by the upper low to the ne of him.
ShawnS
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I expect I'm interpeting this incorrectly, but based on this:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
It looks like the Atlantic Ridge weakens to me. (as of now)
I can't help but have some healthy NIMBY wishcasting in that as well, so your mileage may vary.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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It could be shear. It just looks like some of the disruption pattern correlates with the topography if I remember the topography correctly. Not all that certain, though.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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New Topic Up
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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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Stupid question, how do you get the discussions, maps, etc... a half hour before its on the website? I see the weatherunderground stuff, but I don't like there maps..
Thanks,
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I got it from weatherundergournd.com. They always seem to have it posted before other sites.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Again, I'm not that good at looking at the wv and telling what will effect these storms so bear with me but it looks like to me that may want to go on a more northerly track much sooner than expected and miss Florida altogether. Please correct me if I'm way off here, but please be nice...LOL!
ShawnS
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Dangit. So much for my Easterly turn. (flogs self with wet hurricane tracking chart)
The Big Bend track makes me SO nervous. I *might* stay if that's the case, but if it pulls a to the right I'm going to get flattened.
It's just too far out yet to tell. (sigh)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ok, I'm stumped on this one. The models & the discussions we have seen and read would have you think that they would have shifted it to the right. But..
in the discussion they say it wouldn't have been "prudent" to move it more west, and it's to the right of the guidance envelope."
The only thing I can say is that they know something we don't. Like what the ensemble is telling them.
I'm gonna watch Steve Jerve at 5 to see what he thinks. Interesting.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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yeah well it beats the flip flopping.. I think they would rather not move the track as it could deter people from preparing, people who could be possibly be effected by 36-48 hours before the panhandle could. Guess they do not want another situation..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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Quote:
Personally, I'm hoping for a track out of ........
I considered letting that pass, but note my location. Let's think about what we post! Geez.
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
Edited by Sadie (Fri Sep 10 2004 05:35 PM)
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