DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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You guys know whats impressive? Look at how the convection was elongated about 4 or 5 hours ago and look now. Its almost perfectly symmetrical. I can only imagine how bad it will be in Jamaica tonight. Think about it...near Cat 5 roaring through at night and riding out the storm in a hotel on the beach or anywhere for that matter. Its gonna be one hell of a nightmare. As bad as this may end up, Im hoping some video comes out of there so we can see just how strong a storm of this strength is. Im not trying to sound like I dont care about the folks their...But come one, this is once in a very long time kind of stuff were witnessing. I pray for all Jamaican's riding this storm out tonight though. Keep safe. PS Anyone have any obs or radar images from Jamaica? I had a few obs but I think they've already lost power. Any help is greatly appreciated.
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Ivan's ramping up for sure now. Solid eye and very semetrical. SW coast is going to get it.
I don't see any weakening of the ridge yet. I might even hazard an extension of the ridge developing between Cuba and Jamaica. May not be there in the morning. I can't imagine the effect on 's track, but it might slow it down and limit growth if still there when comes through.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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There's the weather service of Jamaica
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/
Looks as though the radar has stoped working though...
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp
Edited by ShaggyDude (Fri Sep 10 2004 08:53 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HCW, yes 926mb was the last recon pressure. They are currently recovering back to their base. Next recon scheduled to depart at 0200Z, about an hour from now.
If has made a westward jog, as it appears, the mountains of Jamaica will not have near the effect on bringing him down. Yes, I noticed the symmetry has improved quite a bit in the last few hours.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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This is looking very bad for Jamaica. My thoughts and prayers are with them. I don't think there is any other to describe it except that they are in for a truely hellish night.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Using the latest info, Phil's crow-eating prediction is on target, though, it's just one model at one point in time against the and . I'm trying Phil, but we'll see.
I hope I'm wrong...I really do, although that still means a whole world of hurt on someone else...
I've been wrong with every storm this season, so what's one more. One thing though...when I make a call, I stick with it till the dire end...I don't change my forecast over time to suit things and then claim I scored a coup...
the names are being withheld to protect the guilty...end of season I will remember...
Unfortunately...unless this were to pull a hard right (ain't happening) to turn out to sea, someone in the will be getting whomped.
If it's Naples...to the Cape...to Hattaras...well, then, gee, I could say I was right. Does that make it any better?
Let's just hope something with the hills of Jamiaca and then the Mountains of COOBA can knock this down to at least a two. That would be more of a "victory" than nailing the landfall point.
Pray for Jamaica and everyone else be safe...'k?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Jamica is in for a beating, the Prime minster is telling everyone to pray also. Just some thoughts.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a link to an update from Jamaica at 2255Z. Just scanning the first few lines, it looks really bad for them.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml
Looks like Aruba has some major flooding going on. One pic has a man wading in chest deep water.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 10 2004 09:13 PM)
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I see a verrryy slight wobble to the South. I don't think it will hold, but if it did it might keep the eyewall off of the coast. I'm hoping it doesn't throw back to the NW and smack hard into landfall.
Holy cow, those poor people. Why do these things always come at night!?
It looks like Kingston will be spared a direct hit.
Anyone got an idea on current wind speeds?
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Accuweather track has not changed and still shows a West Central Florida landfall. I know Joe Bastardi had changed his forecast, and was now forecasting a West coast landfall. Does anyone know if he has changed his thinking this evening.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Last recon has 118kt in the SW quadrant at 1834Z.
That equals 135.88mph at flight level (7990ft), and should be near 122.3mph at the surface. The higher elevations would probably be closer to the 135mph wind speed.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 10 2004 09:18 PM)
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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No, as I posted eariler, he had an interview on Fox News and he's sticking with his west central Florida prediction.
As a note to what you said on the recon, the SW portion of the hurricane isn't usually the strongest part and probably wouldn't correspond to higher wind speeds present in the upper right section. Though, if you're anywhere in Jamaica, you will go through on helluva rough time.
Edited by ShaggyDude (Fri Sep 10 2004 09:23 PM)
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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1834 was this afternoon
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Felix
Unregistered
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I apologize if this was already mentioned. Punta Gorda and western Charlotte County are under mandatory evacuations starting Saturday. I'm not sure where to find a link to the actual order.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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The last hour of IR pixs were almost due west.. or just north of due west (time of 23:45 to 00:45).... I sure hope it stays on this track for a couple more hours or so... I doubt it..... next couple of NW wobbles, if they occur will put the eye wall on the island..... its bad enough as it is, but could get a whole lot worse in the next couple of hours... stay tuned....
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The last recon message, from , was transmitted at 2332Z/ 1932EDT. They used an older max flt lvl wind in the transmission. had upped the windspeed in the 5pm advisory based on some other factor, as the last reported MFLWindspeed is shown below.
URNT12 KNHC 102332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
...P. AF984 1509A OB 29
MAX FL WIND 118 KT SW QUAD 2034Z
Looking back at the Vortex messages.
...P. AF984 1509A OB 24
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 2218Z.
This was transmitted at 2222Z-1822edt.
122kts=140.5mph at flt lvl or 126mph at the surface.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 10 2004 09:33 PM)
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LindaG
Unregistered
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Link for Charlotte County evacuations: http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emergency/bulletins.asp
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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
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What are the chances of Orlando getting hurricane winds?
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Felix
Unregistered
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Thank you!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I watched the coverage on New Channel 8 last weekend when was coming our way, and had it nailed. I'm not saying that Steve Jerve is better than the , but they have a pretty impressive record with the model on , ...and I hope it's wrong with .
Dennis Phillips was the one swearing that we wouldn't get hurricane force winds here in Tampa last weekend. We did. However, I remember distinctly with that there was one model that he pointed out (the ?) that put it in at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda and that was right.
We all want to know where it's going and when and we want to know RIGHT NOW. That's just human nature. Floridians are so on edge right now you could cut the tension with a knife. I talked to people tonight at football practice and most people said, "I'm not buying any track until it's an hour before landfall."
However....a brush along the coast will be no party whatsoever. That's why we have to remember that the storm isn't "just a point". When Georges was just about 100 miles offshore from Tampa, the winds and storms were horrendous. That was worse than anything we got (well, that I got) with or . Even if it's offshore by 50 miles, it's gonna be ugly.
I'm not letting my guard down until the track shifts 200 miles left. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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