Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Odd.... the last point on the IR has a southernly component to it....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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daddyrabbit4570
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
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I feel sorry for everyone in this storms path, I know how it feels. did not hit us as a hurricane in SC or NC but the tornadoes spawnded from that storm were bad enough. Hope everybody here are blessed.
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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WOW!!!
Truly freaky! Short term turn for sure, but a boon for not making landfall.
Wonder if Ganja had anything to do with it? 
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HMY
Unregistered
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Never say never, 2004 is the year of all the rules being broken.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Jamie, I think they have so much data coming at them, they don't know which way to go with it. The local TV met called me earlier, and he basically thinks the same thing. The phrase they put in the last discussion, was a "nice" way of saying we aren't sure either. It was close to a "No Duh" phrase.
As you have seen the tracks walk east and west all week. Any track west of the penisula would put along the coast. As Frank and others have pointed out in the probabilities post, on the other thread, the 65nm of a point is basically 1 degree of latitude or longitude. Wouldn't take too much variance off track to get the whole coast in the picture.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 10 2004 11:42 PM)
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Makes you wonder why Dr Gray downgraded his numbers
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jmm045
Unregistered
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so what are ur guys thinking when it makes landfall in Florida?cat II,III, or IV, V?
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
There is no way it's a Cat V (at FL landfall). I would guess II to III. As far as how much it would weaken, see . ( i.e., not much)
Well, did weaken, but from a cat IV to cat II - still strong enough to snap trees and destroy mobile homes. You can expect about a two category drop when a tropical cyclone moves inland, depending a lot on topography and time spent over land.
Whether makes landfall or not, it is bound to be close enough to the west coast of FL for MANY coastal residents to feel a major impact!
NHC is doing a great job for public safety - better to opt for the west coast track at this time - note that the entire peninsula of Florida is still within the "cone of concern." At this point in time, who cares about the point of landfall?
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Quote:
I'm a little confused tonight as to where the forecast is going with this Hurricane. I see the sticking with a track to the panhandle, and then I see Joe B insistant on a West Coast landfall, along with the Accuweather forecast. I do respect both forecasts but each has different implications for the peninsula. What is it that sees that JB doesn't or what is it that JB sees that doesn't? What do the other Mets thing about this? (Ed, JK, Clark and others).
And as for this " A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK COULD BRING INLAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA." .
I addressed this in the previous forum but my reasoning was quickly drowned out by "The wouldn't do that on purpose!" I stand my ground.
I believe it is a case of Psychology vs. Meteorology. I believe the considers West coast of FL most likely landfall area. But in order to say so, they have to plant a "dart" somewhere on the map. When that happens, the rest of Florida relaxes somewhat. I don't believe they feel confident enough of any landfall site to allow the rest of FL to let down their guard even a little bit. Remember ? Folks screamed loudly "We thought it was hitting Tampa!"
Just my .02 cents on this. Joe Bastardi can afford to be a little mouthier than the . Too many lives are in their hands for them to possibly lead some into complacency anywhere along the coast.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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yeah that SW wobble very noticable on the IR loops.... might be the difference in some areas of Jamaica getting say 120 mph winds as opposed to 150 plus.... won't know till we see the damage reports.... still bad enough as it is
wobble could be caused by interaction of 's overall flow with the mountains of the island and causing it to shift left a tad... or perhaps the ridge is still hanging in there.... do believe at the moment the system is a little south of the official forecast track... as was posted earlier, right after exiting Jamaica start looking for that discernable NW track... that's what the models are predicting... find out soon enough...
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Re: The "Southward" turn
Could it temporally be the path of least resistance? I see the Atlantic Ridge holding firm and to the West nothing but Westerly flow.
I donno... I just hope Jamaica spared a bit.
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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its almost a 5 right now. may be 165 170 on saturday.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Richiesurfs: I wasn't implying that Jerve or Terry were NOT agreeing with the , in fact they mentioned several times (maybe several HUNDRED times) that the had done a terrific job with the very hard to forecast storms. is a local model that only forecasts 48 hours out. That being said, Channel 8 would show the track first and then the track and the track was more accurate with future paths hour to hour...not off the 's track by much, but it did a great job of forecasting. I don't think that a statement by a local met stating that he thinks it may be a little further east than the official track is wrong, as "a little further east" is in the "cone". If you remember, Bryan Norcross was the ONLY one who went on the air to tell Miami residents that Andrew was headed their way ---something the did not "forecast" --- and he was right. Just because these mets don't work for the doesn't mean they're any less qualified to give a forecast. It's not like the 's saying "Texas" and he's saying "Tampa".
Tom Terry did a great job with with the model they used. When the was showing a near miss ala Floyd, Tom followed the path to a tee. Only when it was apparant that it WOULD hit Florida did he show their model..which turned it more west, making landfall almost exactly where he said it would.
I just wanted to clear that up.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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(off topic post removed - please repost sports info in the Everything & Nothing Forum - Thanks)
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 11 2004 01:02 AM)
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Absolutly!
Probably the worst case for Florida is to grind up the West coast. While a "quickie" entry-exit across South Florida is becoming less likely, it might be the least damaging.
It's weird thinking like this, but maybe it's the Panhandle's turn to take a hit for the state. The bulk of the state has been ripped so far. I truly hate to wish it towards anyone!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Just a reminder of the link to Florida's Storm Surge Zones, Evacuation Routes, etc.
If accelerates northward along the west coast, look for a higher storm surge, esp. at high tide.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For those that are new to the board. The satellites will be entering an eclipse with the Sun, from about 04Z to 0615Z.
That's 12am to 215am EDT. The image may appear to be updating, but if you check the timestamps on the pics you will see that most stop at 0345Z or 0400Z. Depending on your source. The loops will look as is stationary, when in fact he's not. The sats should be back up between 0230-0300edt. As it takes several minutes for the imagers to power back up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just saw a sat shot from Jamaica on or local ABC affiliate(WSB-TV) and has made landfall, it looks like near Kingston I believe...
It's time to really remember Jamaica in our prayers right now.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Like I said yesterday.....
Godparents in Sarasota.......Charlie
Mom, grandparents, aunts, etc in Vero..........Frances
Inlaws have a beautiful beach house in PCB.......Ivan?
Granted, these weren't "direct hits", but certainly close enough. Plus, if does go up to the panhandle, and into Al, there will be serious destruction. Anyone ever take the trip to PCB from ATL via Hwy 431?
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Kelly
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
the track was more accurate with future paths hour to hour...not off the 's track by much, but it did a great job of forecasting.
I for one am tired of seeing inappropriately compared to forecasts. It is a great visual tool for the short term (6 hours) because it's a radar and weather feature perpetuation tool. If you were watching closely, was all over the place for . It kept taking north up the east coast when stalled. Only when started moving a little faster toward FL did show a more reasonable short-term movement. Notice that has a bias to move broad circulations toward the NE.
Sorry I couldn't resist to add my .02.
Jeff
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