Thunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Has J. Cantore repositioned himself to get right in the path yet? I know he had to have split from down south.
He's in Panama City (he just came on ). They commented that he looks like he'll be in the path of the storm.... so, I guess he's where he wants to be...
Well, I reckon he is in hog heaven. 
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Should not have read that way...sorry. Should continue the NW track. As I don't beleive this was a true change of direction, but simply a jog.
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
I don't think they will change the movement to NNW based on just a couple of hours of movement. They usually go with 6-9 hour trends. In that time frame, it is solidly NW.
I agree with you that they probably won't change the motion in the official track. That being said, it really doesn't matter what they change it to, those are just words. The numbers from the last 2 recon's back up the NNW movement, so it's not fatigued eyes trying to follow sat loops on the computer. I actually like to watch because they sometimes show a loop where they draw a white line following the eye. It's much easier to see the pattern that way. Hey...maybe I could draw on my computer screen with an erasable marker??? Now that's an idea  Well, now I know I've been watching this thing too long.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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thanks...I hope you are right for the folks on the west coast sake...but other sat images I have reviewed seem to indicate it could be more NNW...it is feeling that short wave trough in the central gulf coast and the general W to E push of the ridge coming off the TEX coast.
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doug
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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"The word "EXTRAP" precedes any pressures extrapolated from aircraft sensor information; if the word "EXTRAP" is not there, it means the pressure was measured directly by a dropsonde released from the aircraft..."
Hope that answers your question.
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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just checked the high speed floater, and it appears in the last two frames to have gone back NW again. Now that could be fatigue, but that's what I see. Besides, as I said earlier, They have forecast a NNW track most of the way. It was only supposed to go NW for a little while.
I know that it could make a big difference in the final destination, but I'm not convinced it was anything more than a wobble right.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Has speeded up his forward motion ...or is it my tired eyes?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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richiesurfs
Unregistered
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Maybe someone can explain this to me. Many on here are talking about a more easterly shift and yet I look at the models on weatherundreground, which is easy for a layman like myself, and they have continued to shift west run after run it seems. Even the BAMM which shows that abrupt turn to the east has basically shifted west. I think some people are just reading too much into every miicrometer of movement this thing makes. I don't think the does that. When I read Jason, or any of the other people on here who "really" knows, saying that there is going to be a more easterly shift then I might start to believe it. Then again, the could come out at 5pm and have it shifted to the right for all I know.Just a surfer/weatherlayman's thoughts. i have family up there and I'm really concerned for them to say the least.
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
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looks like it may have been just a wobble to the north. this thing could still go anywhere! Everyone watch this thing until it hits the mainland! I still say land fall around alabama on thursday about 3pm.
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Kimmie
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: Lousiana
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Do believe the long awaited NW turn has begun. I know lots of people in the crescent city who are well on their way to panicking! Won't know for sure for a few hours if this is the real turn. I am thinking Mobile Bay! Rick and others from that area may be under the gun in 48 - 72 hours! Have you guys noticed the size of this monster! It is just as, if not bigger than, his sister, ! Has anyone heard how Grand Cayman faired?
Kimmie
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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it is not a jog, just showed latest and it is now more north....
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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The models on that site are old. Some were run yesterday. Also, I think Jason Kelley said to disregard the earlier models today since they were initialized when was still moving WNW, so they are inaccurate.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Kimmie,
cayman reports
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Richiesurfs,
I think that easterly shift is being driven by a comment made in the 11 am discussion regarding a low over Tennessee. Lots of speculation about exactly why that comment was in there and what did it mean. Not just on this board, either. I've seen it mentioned on another one as well with exactly the same implications.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Showed latest what????? It will show it further north..It did move north for an hour or two, but I beleive it was temporary. Look at the last few frames. looks to be more NW again.
Again, each wobble right will throw the track off unless offset by a wobble right.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
I think some people are just reading too much into every miicrometer of movement this thing makes. I don't think the does that.
Richie that statement couldn't be any more truthful. The mantra that everyone should remember is "the trend is your friend". One wobble here or there does not make a trend, and shouldn't be dubbed one. Obviously if it continues for hours then it should be evaluated, and if a change in forecast path needs to be made then so be it. has already made some good sized "wobbles", one of them sparing Jamaica a direct hit, and I'm sure it will continue to do so. BTW-the gulf is looking good for some nice surf tomorrow.
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Check the Surf
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Richie, you are right about 1 thing. Wait until someone who knows (NHC) to tell you the track has shifted. Too many people on here want to buck the trend and say its just a wobble or its heading for this place or that. That way they can say they were right and that they are a Hurricane expert. The fact is nobody knows where this thing is going right now. Until it is North of your Lat. there is always a chance.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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danigirl
Unregistered
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Okay so J. Sidel mentioning that it could still hook right and hit tampa? How realisitic is that?
Dani
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richiesurfs
Unregistered
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The , UKMET, and were run at 8am this morning. The BAMM was run at 2pm this afternoon.The is from 8pm last night and it has consistently been west. Thats not that old.for any of them except maybe the . i believe Jason has said he feels it is coming up to his area basically. I hope he's wrong because I have family there but i sure don't want to see this hit anyone.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Fletch,
Welcome to the boards...however, before making a statement like you just made, it might behoove you to go back and read some of the older material.
This board is professionally run, and most people are here to exchange information. With a very few notable exceptions , no one ever claims to be an expert, especially the several mets who post here.
Enjoy the forums and we welcome your constructive input!
Cheers
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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