B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I know that Dr Grays numbers won`t be out until April 1st, whats in your minds eye for us Floridians for this year? I live a block off the ocean just north of Melbourne Beach Fla. and I`m getting all my ducks in a row before the you know what hits the fan around here again. I think we`ll be in the cross hairs again this season, both east coast, Keys, and Gulf coast. June and July might be slow again, with August and September the crucial months to watch the tropical Atlantic for my area. What do you think?......We don`t need another storm around here, we`re still picking up the pieces and trying to put the puzzle together around here just like the west coast of Florida.............I would be grateful for any infro...Weatherchef
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I was under the impression that Dr Gray released his 'numbers' to the National Hurriacane Conference in New Orleans on Friday, yesterday. I looked in depth at the 'net trying to find them and update the forum here. I guess the release date is the reason I couldn't find them. Seems like he's sticking to his guns, not wanting to cause early panic or dread. 66 days and the season begins.
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050326/NEWS01/50326002/1002/NEWS01
At link above is all the information about the hurricane conference at New Orleans and what Dr Gray said there.He didn't say the numbers for the april update but some hints of his talk there indicate that he will raise slightly the numbers from the 11/6/3 he had in the December outlook.So we will have to wait until April 1 to read his update and see why he got to the conclusion one way or another on raising the numbers or not.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I guess you and Cycloneye11 are right. We`re gonna have to wait until the 1st. And I agree with Lysis that its gonna be a deja vue here in Florida this year, its that ole gut feelin...........Weatherchef
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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While I agree that the the numbers will probably go up slightly whether it 's dejvue for FL. again remains to be seen.The Bermuda high will ultimitly make that decision in some part.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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The numbers will probably go up a tad tomorrow for sure. I also agree that the Bermuda High will be the key player on what happens to the Florida east coast and north of there. Thats a no brainer. I wouldn`t be surprised that you guys on the Gulf coasts see a Tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane brewing around in the Gulf of Mexico around late June and in to the month of July. We`ll have to watch those trailing edges of low pressure systems just north of the gulf early on as they move over those warm waters. Then we`ll watch the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic off Africa.....Weatherchef
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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13/7/3
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cheers
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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if is tilting back to cool by early summer.. then yeah, will be a busy place later this year. their suggestions about how things could get worse are just that.. suggestions. still a lot of mixed signals on the primary signal.. . nothing's in stone yet.
HF 0041z01april
17/11/5 (what credibility?)
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Can we talk a bit about the Bermuda High? Last it was mentioned was I think late January/early February. At that time it was about where it was during 2004. I remember reading somewhere, that it's location through March would be important to note. I can't find anything new on it. You guys are the experts that I've grown to count on-so with all of your wisdom and resources...where's it located now?!?
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When it rains, it pours...
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Heather, The Bermuda High is also called the Azores High. The center of action is located about 35degrees north and 25 degrees west. It extends from near the western end of the Mediterranean Sea westward almost to Florida in the summer months, with the western section in summer is sometimes referred to as the "Bermuda High".....I`m still digging for more infro on its exact location right now........Anybody else with more specific infro please post........Weatherchef
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Sure enough, that is what the morning vis shows...with some bursting convection. Nothing (tropical storm wise) will come of it, but here we have the classic early season scenario of a the tail end of a front moving into the NW Carib and sparking some development....on April 2! (Fortunately).
Still looking for an early start this year...so far my best analog year is 1978, based on stateside weather patterns, but I think that was an El Nino year, so....who knows!!
MM
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I see that nice little blob over western Cuba this morning. As you say Map Master, a classical earlyweather system showing some early hints of something that might happen in the Gulf come June or early July. I think that one of those cold front tails will spawn a low pressure area with some circulation at the surface in that time frame somewhere in the Gulf. Maybe a T.D. or a T.S. nothing big....By the way, you maps are awsome . You are the master.........Weatherchef
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I thought was the master?
Blob: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/download.php?Number=35113
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sat Apr 02 2005 01:40 PM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Your right Lysis, I had my map people mixed up. Sorry Skeeobite , you are the true master.....Weatherchef
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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We've had trough after trough move through the eastern United States and spin over the Western Atlantic over the past few weeks. If there were anything out there right now, it'd have no chance of making it to the United States. The media jumped the gun with their reports a month or so ago about the Bermuda high; it changes its location and intensity on a week-to-week and month-to-month basis, as we've seen recently.
Using it's location in late January/early February to predict hurricane season activity is just short of pure folly. The accurate media reports would have mentioned that *if* such a pattern were to be established at some point during the hurricane season, hurricanes *might* threaten Florida...but that requires a storm out there in the first place, which in itself requires favorable conditions further out in the Atlantic as well as something to trigger tropical cyclone formation way out there. Instead, they took a quote -- or more appropriately, mistook a quote -- and ran with it.
Don't worry about the location of the high for now -- just sit back and enjoy the show!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, left that 'little' part out, didn't they... typical press.
clark, i'm lazy. do you know where i can find a database of historic height anomaly charts, plain ol' 500mb geopotential heights, and/or forecasted height anomalies? it's for a good cause (most immediately a couple of papers i have to write). and besides, i'm feelin' lucky.
HF 0542z03april (back to daylight savings, woohoo!)
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east coast
Unregistered
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hello, im in vero beach florida and had a very bad year 2004. we have just finished putting 125,000 back into our home. I am not good at reading these charts but are we looking at the same year as 2004.
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Vero Beach
Unregistered
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Same here, im sitting about 5 miles off the coast. We lost some of our home both storms in 2004. Just have rebuild this week. I work in retail as a Manager for a grocery chain and we were without power 9 days and 10 days both storms. Lost all persh in the location almost 600,000.00 both storms. Does any one have a clue if were in a bad spot this year again. I am ready to move this time.
Thanks for any info.
We have done everything we can this year, I have a gennrator that will run the entire house ect. But as im in retail i have already seen a push from the customers buying now on supplies, i know its hard to believe but they are. Is this just a media hype.
Thanks
Vero beach
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Yo Vero and East Coast. All indicators show that indeed the 2005 storm season will be at or slightly more to what we saw in 2004. As to where the tropical systems will make land fall is a crap shoot. I personally believe that people in Florida , Georgia, South Carolina should closely momitor the Atlantic this summer and be prepared just in case......In all reality, all we can do is wait and watch. We are at the mercy of Mother Nature. Remember, material possesions can be replaced, lives cannot.........WeatherChef
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
Something interesting to watch as some convection is there,Let's see if it turns into a warm core low or nothing will happen but neverless something to watch this very early in mid april.
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