Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Does seem like a short rest...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Well Cycloneye, it looks like your going to be our designated foward observer for down there in the islands this year. Your island and the Virgin islands will be first in line for the U.S. if any thing happens when the Cape Verdes start up, which we know it will, its just a matter of when and where.......Good luck from us mainlanders....Weatherchef
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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around this time of year low pressure areas in the tropics and subtropics that linger or meander cut off from the westerlies start to illicit the first shreds of suspicion. at least the global models start to do things with them that don't look very winter-like. i'm in no way implying that either of these features are real development candidates, just front-runners of the transition into a summer pattern.
gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low.
gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something.
HF 1544z02may
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Well it looks to me to be a very bad hurricane season.Florida looks to be under the gun again.I think Miami and Ft Lauderdale's luck may have run out. 
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The low that went across SW Florida Sunday 5/1 really deepened quickly and the wind around it gusted at 40+. If this were mid-summer we had something on our hands. It was interesting though.
Not too much discussion here about the work coming out of tropicalstormrisk.com and the study they publihed this winter. I actually read it last week; published in April 21, 2005 issue of Nature. They are posting some very significant statistical support for their models which essentially sample the trades and SST's in July, and then make a firm prediction for the heart of the season in the first few days of August.
Their first forecast for 2005 however, based on data through March was not too encouraging here: 14/8/4. The August forecast would be more likely to focus on landfall as that is their business, insurance losses. Last year they won awards for their work. check it all out for yourselves at: tropicalstormrisk.com.
Doug
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doug
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Thank you for those words.I hope that nothing occurs in the islands but I am ready and prepared for anything.
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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Skeeto I sent a letter last week. I was furious that they would even consider doing this.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Want another early start to the season? Looks like we might have a subtropical cyclone on our hands...in the southern hemisphere.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05050306/10.html
Water temps are about 24-25 C in the vicinity of the storm, as with last year's "Catarina," but the upper level temperatures are likely cold enough to support some sort of development. The system currently is located near 32 S, 24 W, with it projected to sort of just spin in place. It is still attached to some sort of frontal-type boundary to the east, but the connection between the two has appeared to weaken a bit recently.
Satellite: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html, click on the cyclone in the lower right.
I can't find my upper-air charts for the S. Atlantic, nor can I make them on the fly right now, but water vapor imagery shows a ridge just to the west. If the system can transition down to the surface, we might see something (likely subtropical). I'd like to take a look at the models if I had the time -- see what the temperature values are in that region, see what's going on at the surface in terms of vorticity (or as the Weather Channel is fond of calling it, spin), and see what the moisture is in the midlevels (though WV shows there to be some) -- but alas, I don't. I heard from someone that one of the agencies put out a satellite estimate (not the one available to the public on NOAA's SSD webpage) of ST2.5/2.5 on the system -- a healthy subtropical cyclone.
(Edit: the classification is available on the webpage now -- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html -- listed in the top list as 90L, South Atlantic)
QuikSCAT imagery: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/hires/, click on the ascending pass near 32 S, 24 W. Strong winds are found near the center, mainly 30-35kt. Winds are weak on the southeast side, likely a function of the previous frontal nature, but may fill in with time. Note that the current image I've got is near 0800 UTC today, or about 12 hours old.
(Edit: the latest descending pass caught it, too, showing a further disconnect from the trough that it was once associated with it. Click on the storm on the second image on the above page, instead of the first image, to see it. This later one is from 1900 UTC -- or about 3p ET.)
Probably just another interesting thing to look at, like the system a couple weeks back, and one out in the central Atlantic near 30 N now, but still...it's May, so it's better than nothing.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nah, don't think that one will make the transition, clark. it's the equivalent of november down there now anyway.
i was reading the cpc discussion 6-10 day discussion this morning, yesterday's that is... they've noticed some of the same things pertaining to the suggested caribbean disturbance. today's discussion is much the same deal. should at least be something interesting to look at late next week/weekend.
SOI went positive sunday for the first time in a while, but has gone back to near neutral. we'll need more of that if we're to get out of weak , or preclude it strengthening. i'm not that certain, but still thinking we won't get more than a skeleton of an el nino signature this season. might hew something off the wacky high numbers at the end of the month in any case.
HF 0114z04may
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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sigh...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue May 03 2005 07:36 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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HF - oh, me neither, but it's something to keep the wave-mongers amongst us (yes, I'll admit to doing some of it from time to time too) appeased until things really get going. I was surprised to see it come across the tropical-storms mailing list (it's a mailing list of academic & operational people in tropical meteorology) myself, but lo and behold, there's something out there. It's probably too far east to do anything -- last year's storm was much closer to the coast and in a less progressive pattern.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Hey Lysis, looks like a nice little flareup down in your neighborhood......Weatherchef........... [image]http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html[/image]
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there's actually a good burst of convection near the core of that south atlantic feature this morning.. but the cold air stratocumulus along the occuluded front remnant from its earlier life are still arcing into one of it's quadrants. it's secluded, but maybe not secluded enough.
forecast here for the rest of the week sucks. i very much doubt that the system forecast to trudge through the southeast and over the gulfstream will try to look overtly hybrid... the forecast highs here thursday/friday are in the 60s from wedging. it's been cool all spring, so nothing new. run-to-run the keeps taking that caribbean feature for next week/the following week further east. it's still far out... consistent in runs, but sketchy in terms of details. still more than you'd expect in early may, but the 'probably nothing' factor is high on this one.
HF 1431z04may
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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I would like peoples opinon on where they think a cat 3 or higher storm will hit in the U.S.?Pick a city type of thing. 
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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If it means anything to you, Gray said something like 73% in his April forcast . Numbers for the US east coast were around 50%.
Edited by Lysis (Wed May 04 2005 05:38 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Come on guys pick a city in the U.S. that you think will get hit.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Impossible to do how would one back there claim?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Walla Walla, WA. Scottsbluff, NE is a close second. Want some lucky lottery numbers now? C'mon, that's not what we do here.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Thanks HF I was going to say secondly season members of this forum don't play that game.Thks for the backup.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Gosh darn guys, I was way off. I thought Fairbanks Alaska was a dead ringer. H.F. and Jav, keep up the good work. Its not hard to put a finger on the true weather pros.........Weatherchef
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