tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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That comment about the shear in the Caribbean was from me by the way. 
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Derek Sutherland
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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As you know, when hurricanes undergo CREC's or any form of eye generation causes storms to usually weaken. The dry air intrusion also supports this hypothesis. 6 hours is a relatively short time for an ragged eye to form, the storm to start strengthening again, and the dry air to be replaced. 30 + C waters, and an ideal amount of shear give you a good idea of how strong this storm can get!
Notice the latest retrival from the GOES cloud temp.
http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/epac41_manual.html
Bright banding around the center, suggests some form of eye development is taking place.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Wed May 18 2005 04:02 PM)
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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if you look ant the vis sat loop and click on the forcast points on the bottom you can see the the storm's center is ESE of its forcast position. Clark is right people along the Honduran/Nicaraguan border better watch out.
Edited by hurricane_run (Wed May 18 2005 04:12 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks like a more S track will allow for better development in the Carib. due to Adrian's proximity to the shear.Then you have to wonder then about the steering currents if the trough will be felt by Adrian significantly.Definitly no eye yet just a good center of circulation.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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thats looks like what is happening so far. it further S and E than the forcast put it.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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ok...i thought i knew this stuff but obviously i'm confused...
adrian is currently a TS in the EPAC, but the general consensus is that she will achieve Hurricane Status before landfall.
assuming she maintains at least TS strength in her trek across CA and emerges into the atlantic basin...is she still adrian? if she drops to TD status but then 'regains' TS strength in this basin, does she then get 'reclassified' as ?
i know this is a rare and but still possible scenario...
and on a related, but slightly off-topic side note...if she becomes "arlene", this will count as the first named storm in the atlantic, and also for the "season forecast" contest, right?
glad to be back moderating...heh...but i could have waited a couple more weeks for this... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Quote:
currently im listening to talkin' tropics and they have Jamie Rhome (Forecast Analyist from the TPC/ Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch) live interview. he said if it keeps a disernable center it will keep the pacific name, but if it falls totally apart it will get a Atlantic name. Now the question is what would you call disernable?
That is from last night.
Edited by hurricane_run (Wed May 18 2005 04:37 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I thought if Adrian were to retain any tropical characteristic it would be treated as the first tropical event in the Atlantic basin once it appears in the Atlantic basin.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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5pm still 50kts
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING
THE GULFO DE FONSECA.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS UPGRADED THETROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANEWATCH FOR ALL OF EL SALVADOR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Currently some nice convection developing and wrapping on the western side of the center. At the same time, the eye feature that was developing earlier is not as evident right now. The development will probably continue to level off some as we go into the evening.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001
...IRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IRIS NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON IRIS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE
PACIFIC. IF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL RETAIN
THE NAME IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
AFTER EXTENSIVE POST-ANALYSIS...AND NO SMALL AMOUNT OF DEBATE...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT THE CONTINUATION OF ATLANTIC
HURRICANE IRIS. SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER...WHILE PART OF THE OVERALL
WEATHER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS...WAS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
BEFORE THE CENTER OF IRIS LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THUS...THE SYSTEM IS CALLED TD FIFTEEN-E INSTEAD OF TD IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Edited by hurricane_run (Wed May 18 2005 04:50 PM)
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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ok so if he remains Adrian, do we keep ? or move on to Bret?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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keep
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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if somehow it it remains adrian and for right now thats a big if.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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there's gonna be a lot of confused people this season...LOL... 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i have to agree there i was kinda confused...but im good now...:)
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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my weather guy mitchell on channel 28 in tampa bay just said that if it does cross over it will be atlantic first named storm... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
ok...i thought i knew this stuff but obviously i'm confused...
adrian is currently a TS in the EPAC, but the general consensus is that she will achieve Hurricane Status before landfall.
assuming she maintains at least TS strength in her trek across CA and emerges into the atlantic basin...is she still adrian? if she drops to TD status but then 'regains' TS strength in this basin, does she then get 'reclassified' as ?
i know this is a rare and but still possible scenario...
and on a related, but slightly off-topic side note...if she becomes "arlene", this will count as the first named storm in the atlantic, and also for the "season forecast" contest, right?
glad to be back moderating...heh...but i could have waited a couple more weeks for this...
no, i believe the contest was more so "when will the first named hurricane form by?" or something like that...
nevermind the above, it was when will the first named system form...and it looks like i would win that part of the contest then. that is if the storm theoretically became a TS in the atlantic which at this point is very hard to determine.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Wed May 18 2005 05:26 PM)
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Here we go Ready or Not
Just listening now sounds like she is going to have rough passage over El Salvador. Will watch this close as it doesn't happen often. I sure didn't add this when I sumitted my numbers. Time to sharpen the penciils.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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ahh the joy of tropical systems 
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