GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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That eerily looks like hurricane landfall spots where those minus signs fall. I do hope that there is a steering factor this year that turns these canes into fish.....
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Wed Jun 01 2005 09:59 PM)
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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I updated my hurricane supply list (learned a lot from last year)!!! Nice to have a gas grill w/ extra tanks. Don't forget coffee - a french press, or even something you can pour hot water through. It was nice having hot coffee when we had no power!
I also am having the company who installed my hurricane panels change the lead anchors to panelmates. I found out what a pain that was to install panels on 23 windows. The panelmates will cut the time at least in half.
I posted this a while back, but in case some didn't see...I added a home weather station with the info. posted on my web page. The anememoter is mounted into the roof trusses (roof was engineered for Cat 4) so it should hold fast. The main weather page is...
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html
and here is a page where the data is updated every 3 seconds or so...
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/livewx.html
I am located on Merritt Island in Brevard County, Florida. For info. on my weather station and location you can check out the following link:
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/WxStationInfo.html
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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You guys are great!!!!Just got home from work,and found all your posts very interesting.Thanks!!As I have said before I live 1.5 miles from the beach here in Ft. Lauderdale,so I will be spending alot of time in here over the next few months.Keep up the great posts.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Nice to be back and see everyone still here. I have been put on assignment in Fort Lauderdale for work until further notice. I have been down here since March in a hotel about 10 miles inland.
Had some really nice storms this week - I took some video of one we had Saturday with some rotation as it moved over the hotel. I'll see if I can find a way to post the video online.
Anyone going to the Skywarn classes in Palm Beach this coming Saturday?
Derek
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I just want to point out to everyone that now has one of the first "new" features for 2005 up and running, the "Met Blogs" section (it can be accessed from scrolling down on the main page, or in the "News" section under "Met Blogs" on the left hand menu).
Two of our great resident mets, Clark Evans and Jason Kelley (plus Ed Dunham with a "test message") have already submitted their first blogs for the 2005 season.
I urge everyone to check out this new forum and to check back frequently as they constanly update their thoughts on the 2005 Cane Season...
Thanks to Mike (and many others) for this great new feature! 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Terra -- you're right about the feedback mechanisms. Here's another example, related directly to tropical season: once you reach SSTs of about 31 C, you start to get automatic unorganized (no organization mechanism around) convective development. This happens on occasion near the equator in the West Pacific, serving to lower SSTs due to a reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface.
This feature, dubbed the convective albedo thermostat, effectively limits the upper bounds of tropical cyclone intensity (related in large part to the sea tmeperatures at and just below the surface) as well as limits the potential for spontaneous tropical develop given sufficiently warm SSTs. Further, one of the markers of increased SSTs lies in El Nino, all in all a negative effect on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Increasing global warming may result in warmth everywhere, though it's likely not going to result in hypercanes, a substantial increase in the number of the storms seen per year (the numbers of which will vary from basin to basin), or really result in any changes to preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Any such changes in the previous two items may be realized, but likely not to as large a degree as some have predicted due to the physical processes noted above.
In any case, there still remains a lot that we don't know about what's going on, namely because our ability to understand hasn't gotten there yet, nor have we seen anything like this before. It will be an interesting few years before we get there.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Any chances for developement within this train:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_40/anis.html
?
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I'm not as experienced as some of the others here, but typically I don't think we see Cape Verde storms forming until much later in the season.
YMMV SPSFD
Edited by tpratch (Thu Jun 02 2005 08:30 AM)
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Typically not until August and September for the Cape Verde season to begin. But with the basin as warm as it is, things could happen sooner. Of note is the significant SST anomaly right of the coast of Africa. But conditions aloft must be favorable as well for development. On another note, what happened to the model links and sat pix links on the main page? Were they moved or deleted? RSVP. Cheerio!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The links are still there, but in an older news post. Click on either "News Only" to the left or "See more news" at the top of the main page to see the whole list. It's part of having the blogs around now, too. Ultimately, they may get added to the "Storms Links" page for continual reference.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Take a look at the little flare up at about 15N 80W (it appears in the last frame or two)... wv loop. SSTs are fairly warm and shear is low...anyone see development potential down the road for this (like a week or so?).
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Phil -- best bet is that it's a result of some diffluence aloft due to the upper low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It's projected to lift slowly northward & eastward across Florida over the coming days. If somethnig were to stick around after everything clears out, then it might have a shot down the road -- not sure if this is what the models were picking up on then or not -- but that's 4 days out or so and I'm not sure it'll hold the course there. If anything is going to get going in the near-future, though, it's likely going to be the SW Caribbean once the GOM low clears out -- shear is too great everywhere else.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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In case anyone missed it in Jason Kelley's blog, he will be appearing as guest on Barometer Bob's radio show tonight. Barometer Bob Show. All ya'll listen in for some great weather talk with a good ole southern drawl....
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Our latest weather promo in the works...
(Omnious music)
"2 megawatts of combined power"
"3 terabytes of storage"
"14 megabits of communications bandwidth"
(cut to me, sitting in the weather office with my feet propped up, shorts and flip-flops on, eating Pork Rinds)
"...and a fat balding redneck from Alabama running the show"
"The 7 Weather Center...only on NewsChannel 7"
What do you think? 
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> (cut to me, sitting in the weather office with my feet propped up, shorts and flip-flops on, eating Pork Rinds)
ok...that's perhaps an image that should stay in the can...
good luck tonite...i'll be listening!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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At least you still have some hair JK And I also am from Alabama
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Jun 02 2005 07:00 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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been watching that today. has a weak low moving up through the yucatan channel to the florida panhandle over the weekend, as of the 18Z run. if that were a deepening low it would move NE across florida in the upper sw flow... models don't really do anything with it. those pesky areas in the western caribbean and near and east of puerto rico later next week are also still appearing. these are low-chance features, but interesting nonetheless.
HF 0129z03june
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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OK, thanks Clark.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The board is quite today everybody reflecting on what is persisting south of Cuba?.
While I agree with the board's resident mets that this flare up has all the signs of instability along a trough there are a couple of things that seem to indicate this could be more than that.
Persistence is not a good thing especially over warm water, and this shows no signs of lifting out. It has developed a moisture envelope that suggests a developing low level feature. It has deep tropical source for that moisture. There are several surface areas of instabilityin the area, one especially northwest of it. The trouginess seems to be breaking down and lifting to the North as moisture spills in from the west.
Finally according to Bastardi this morning the develops a low and moves it into the Florida Big Bend in 72 hours.
We should watch this area closely, as I see it transitioning somewhat.
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doug
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