mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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Yes, however its not even a storm yet. It will more than likely become one, however Why put warning is its still a depression. Pre-warning for ships? Maybe
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hurricanejhkj
Unregistered
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It appears to becoming better oreganized. But the recon is only finding 20 mph winds. In there is a cold core center. We are looking at Grace 2005 guys!!! 
seen a dozen or more form just like this. center's really broad and there's not much wind gradient yet. that's all. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Jun 08 2005 07:38 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Tropical Storm Warning is for 'marine interests' and mariners. It serves to warn and forewarn that tropical storm conditions are forecast in the particular areas of the Gulf of Mexico- GOM.
Most ships don't have the ability to move faster thatn 25kts. So the warning gives them ample time to change course, anchor in place or delay their departure from a 'safe haven'.
Somewhat similar to the Storm Prediction Centers Day 1- Day 3 Outlooks.
Long range planning!! 
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the point of the warning is to let you know that tropical storm conditions are likely
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the official forecast is for tropical storm conditions in that part of the gulf. so... there's a warning. nothing to it really.
HF 0035z09june
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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[RECCO | ONE (01L) OB #17] Time: 2301Z; Lat: 18.4°N; Long: 85.3°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 1083ft; Flt Winds: NE (50°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 72°F; Weather: Broken Skies; SFC Winds: NE (50°) @ 29 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1005mb
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It's amazing how all the models seem io agree on this storm's destination. That 'cone' is the narrowest I've ever seen so far in advance. Is that the result of newer technology or other form of better prediction methods for landfalling systems? If so, that would be a plus.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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18Z seems to have some new ideas on TD1.
Looks like it is trying to "wash the storm out" around Pensacola-Mobile.
Have a look at this here: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ (click 950mb vorticity)
Edited by dem05 (Wed Jun 08 2005 08:16 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I posted this on the last forum, but, alas, Clark was already on the ball with this new one! Our local met on Bay News 9 said at 4:50pm: "We've been keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure and at any time they feel it necessary, the can send a plane out there to check it out." Kinda makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Anyway, from what I could glean from the same met 10 minutes later was this: the Bermuda high is creating steering winds lined up like this:
^^^
^^^
^^^
surrounding Florida, and the the low would be on the left side of those steering winds, which would keep it from coming closer to us here on the west coast of Florida. Then again, he mentioned that depending on how fast or how slow this system moves, everything could go squirrley so we need to pay close attention to it until it's past us.
So, here's the gist: most of the rain will be on the eastern side of the storm. The closer the storm is to Florida, the more rain we get. If, on the other hand, it's offshore by 300-400 miles (maybe less) then we get the benefit of some nice weather.
The models seem to have been in agreement with this storm since they latched on, so unless something weird happens, I'm not all that concerned about west central Florida taking a direct hit. That being said, I am concerned that if it stays close enough to our coast line, we will have a lot of flooding problems and there are so many people who still have blue tarps up that it's not even funny.
My Mom called me and asked me if I thought it would be safe for them to drive down on Friday as planned; I told her that I would just keep an eye on the weather and if they have to postpone it by a day then that would be the safest thing to do.
Sorry for being so scientific in my explanations, it's just my nature. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
It's amazing how all the models seem io agree on this storm's destination. That 'cone' is the narrowest I've ever seen so far in advance. Is that the result of newer technology or other form of better prediction methods for landfalling systems? If so, that would be a plus.
Primary reason that there is such good agreement is the fact that this is an early season storm, and the steering currents are much more well defined than they will be later in the season...early and late season stuff is generally easier to predict.
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Jason Kelley
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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dem05: The isn't going to capture the intensity or structure of a tropical system very well, so it's not really to be trusted for tropical development. What you see therein the model is about as close as you are going to get. Case in point: Isabel at its peak intensity was no lower than 996mb in the . The track is okay, as the influences that influence track from the midlatitudes are fairly well represented (but the weaker intensity of the storm negatively impacts the track forecast nonetheless), but I wouldn't put too much stock in the intensity of the storm in the model.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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WV Loop
Okay...someone help me out here, please!  I think I've finally found the LLC. Is it that area with clouds and what looks like a black hole in the middle that is almost due south of the western tip of Cuba and southwest of where the convection is? I'm really struggling here, but hopefully I've finally found it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Wrong tool for the job....time for my annual WV post...LOL.
You can't see the LLC on vapor because WV doesn't sample the low levels...it samples the mid-levels. You might see where the LLC is if it is stacked over the MLC, but you can't actually "see" the LLC.
And even if you could, I can't confidently discern the current center from that loop. You probably have better eyes than I do though. LOL
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Jason Kelley
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hurricanhoij
Unregistered
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Post deleted by HanKFranK
Edited by John C (Wed Jun 08 2005 09:45 PM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Oh, it is trying to get organized...just gonna be a slow process.
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Jason Kelley
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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I believe it wont get to much more organized until it starts moving towards the SE gulf by Tomorrow night and Friday. I always hate watching Depressions, they always make me lose more sleep then major hurricane. Thing is you know what a major hurricanes gonna do. Depressions leave you pasted to the screen all night wondering if its getting better organized. Look for in the SE gulf.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Ok, dumb question... I've looked at the WV, the IR, and the VIS. The VIS is the only one (to me) that shows signs of organization (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html).
The IR and the WV look like the bands are moving, but there isn't really a circulation cente (maybe I see it in the last two frames of the IR). Am I seeing things right, or have I really lost it? To me, looking at the radar earlier today, it seemed to be converging around a central point more than it appears to be now...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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No such thing as dumb questions...
VIS is absolutely the best remote sensing tool for hurricane cloud pattern analysis..WV and IR are good, but can (and do) gloss over the fine details...remember that Vis is 1km resolution....IR is 4km and WV is 8k...Problem is we only get vis during the day (for now...but that will change a bit in about 8 years....LOL).
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Jason Kelley
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JohnM
Unregistered
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is it me or have the 00Z runs moved back to the right, and would they have recon data in them? or when would that happen?
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Your in the same boat as most of us.It is really tough in the early stages of a storms development w/such a broad low to find the LLC.Once it gets going you will be able to find it by infra at night.Frank P if it comes up this way maybe me and some Wisers come by.
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