FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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wow thats pretty impressive....and lysis thanks for the heads up...im in tampa....so anything to do with the west part of florida is good heads up....thanks....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If that is not a camera trick or distortion of lens, everyone will feel some of what ever that is. Also it could tighten up but if it did, it would be no fun for whoever it aimed at.
Lets hope it does not get its act together anybetter than now.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I can say with as much certainty as you can in this business that this isn't hitting Florida, Flamommy. That was just a size comparison, which I really didn't need to make anyway.
Edited by Lysis (Mon Jul 04 2005 02:47 PM)
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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered
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Is it following the projected path? It looks to me like it's pretty far E of where projected, maybe because it reformed (I am just guessing, based on what others posted earlier today.) I know the path is based on the actual center of low pressure, not the visuals, so I gues there's really no telling right now. I'm sure tonight's models and the recon data will be eagerly awaited. Future TD#4 looks pretty big. I was thinking it could be on the order of Francis's size, if it really gets going.
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEAFDTAE&version=0
It is long so I just put the link up. Very interesting talk.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Storm Cooper, the varying level of interest with these things across the board amazes me. For example, the Southern Louisiana forecast for Wednesday night simply says “windy”. Indeed.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Mon Jul 04 2005 03:11 PM)
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Just wait. And HF, the models have run on the soon to be "dennis"
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I noted a July 5, 2005. Is this an error? or did I sleep through July 4?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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some of the surface obs are reporting westerly winds on the islands off the north coast of venezuela. a low is closing off. might drag it's feet on classifying it, but as of this afternoon it's developing. highest winds i've seen are easterly at about 20kt in the southern windward islands.
td 3 is mostly offshore.. and still has an elongated center. it looks like the center is along the north coast of the yucatan. right now it isn't in a position to rapidly organize, and i'll hold off on saying more until recon samples the area.
gonna be one hell of a week, looks like.
HF 2039z04july
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Quote:
Just wait. And HF, the models have run on the soon to be "dennis"
I am not liking what I see with these model runs. I'm eerily reminded of 's path.
Any chance the will send out recon to this system anytime soon?
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Is it just me or is the soon to be TD 4 looking weaker?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I am sticking to my #37754 - Sat Jul 02 2005 06:32 AM post for landfall. While jet is moving down and across, I do see TD#3 moving more E then current models and a minimal CAT1. Look for the models to begin changing as time goes on. As far as another w/ TD#3, I don't think so. Could be wrong of course. Although the jet is moving across and down out of the Rockies, it is not a strong jet.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I'd say it looks like it is solidifying. may not classify it at 5pm EST, but unless it just suddenly weakens, I expect it will be a TD by 11pm. IMO.
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Jara
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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The latest model run graphics of the model suite are showing the reformation and possible paths from that location.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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TD 3 should be Cindi on the next advisory according to the recon at the last fix.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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TD 3, I'll go with 23/88 and initial motion slightly W of due N.
Playa (td 4 because it is)...12/61 just N of due W
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doug
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Still TD 3 at 5.....
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Jason Kelley
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Should be Cindy in an half an hour, though the structure remains oblique in a moderately sheared enviornment. The steering regime is not complicated, with a trof lifting out over Mexico and a ridge building over Florida, and it seems like the trof has has had a more prominent effect on it, and subsquently the track will be shifted eastward. Most models support a storm landfalling in the vicicinty of the LA, with still some hitting Texas. The track seems to be a combonation of Bill and Claudette wtih Cindy treking in the middle. Intensity is tricky, based on the SHIPS and looks like a strong TS, but given the potential energy of 30 C water and given the fact that the trof is lifting out, all leads to believe that it could become a minor (less then CAT 3) hurricane at landfall. Details need to be worked out, but we still got time...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Speaking of the devil, looks I blew that part of my forecast. 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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TD3 went from 30-35mph looks to be developing IMO and think landfall maybe a strong TS to minimal cane from NO to MS/AL line.If it slows down then further E I would suspect.The cloud struture shows a more Northerly movement as I see it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Edited by javlin (Mon Jul 04 2005 05:14 PM)
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