Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
I just wanted to chime in and let y'all know that some of the 'we' on this board are indeed living in Texas (dunno about Mexico). Go on to work tho, I am not fixin to worry about Emily just yet. Way too early.
I agree, Shana... my first response to JR's post was "ppffftttt".. 
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Allison
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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newbie question
This morning I noticed a piece of the cloud mass of Emily starting to look like it was moving off on its own to the north. This afternoon it looks even more so, and the original cloud mass south of it has become more rounded. So is this northern piece still an integral part of Emily, or is it going to become something separate? Does that ever happen?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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If emily was going to go where the ukmet has it going it would already at 2pm adv have to be going wnw nw already and as of 2pm its still due west.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Also the ukmet and gdfl have been off even on .If its not going west NW by 5pm ADV your therory scot is out the window
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Jul 13 2005 03:46 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Not necessarily. Just because the 12hr position may be a little bit off doesn't mean that things won't change and the 120hr position won't end up less correct. It usually doesn't happen, but to blindly state something like that without giving any physical reasoning behind it just doesn't pass muster.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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This is a newbie answer...
I think what you are seeing is the outflow of the cyclone to the north, its still "part of the storm" but it is behaving in a manner that is not the norm. The center of circulation in this storm is very weird I think. It seems like the NE quadrant is really lacking clouds structure with the southern regions of the cyclone and the eastern regions being better defined. I believe that the outflow, if indeed thats what I am seeing to the north and the east, projecting itself in the manner it is indicates a good chance of strengthening to come. The most inhibiting thing that I am seeing near term for strengthening is the dry air in front of the storm.
I do not actually know what I am talking about, I am simply guessing. (I would say educated guessing, but I am not that confident.)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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the wnw -nw motion is under way..although look for the 5 to officially say w as the motion change is only very recently confirmed in sat pix.
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doug
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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No worries and apology accepted (but truly not needed) I just wanted to remind the board at large, while we're not in a crisis situation... that there are forum members from places *other* than Florida here
'shana
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I do see a 'lift' towards the north as Emily appears ready to take that jog northward as the models had indicated earlier then going W-NW. I'm surprised at the UKMET model having Emily darting across Cuba.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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well im going by the other ones as well and ukmet has had it wrong since the start as they have all the other storms.
I personally by looking at the other runs at the same time as ukmet think it has it way too far north.
And as always on here the mets like to go against the NOAA as when they get it right once they can say see.
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Jul 13 2005 03:58 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
the wnw -nw motion is under way..although look for the 5 to officially say w as the motion change is only very recently confirmed in sat pix.
well even the NWS has been waiting on some sort of wnw.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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hello and im sorry but living in florida and going through the hurricanes we had to encounter last year...i think its about time that somewhere else got hit...weve had our fair share...not saying i wish you any danger or harm...but there was alot of damage done to florida last year and this year and we dont need anymore...theres my 2 cents...i do apologize if anyone gets offended but imsure there are others who agree with me... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
hello and im sorry but living in florida and going through the hurricanes we had to encounter last year...i think its about time that somewhere else got hit...weve had our fair share...not saying i wish you any danger or harm...but there was alot of damage done to florida last year and this year and we dont need anymore...theres my 2 cents...i do apologize if anyone gets offended but imsure there are others who agree with me...
No offense taken, but just a clarification --
I can't speak for Shana, but I think the issue with the earlier post wasn't so much the prediction of a Texas landfall (we could actually use the rain, without the wind of course...  ), but rather alluding that storms headed away from Florida aren't as relevant to the people who post here....
Then again, this is the Central Florida Hurricane Center...
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Allison
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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personally i like certian models and this year and gdfl are ones i like and all but the ukmet has it going west at the end of the 5 day which i know can change i do trust them more then others.
As far as scott's forcast i think he hit it on the head he has it going anywhere from the Yucatan to florida so i think he has ot covered 
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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5pm is out no stronger nor any north movement yet.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Allison said it for me 
And we're here in the Central Florida Hurricane Center because there's more good info here than anywhere else. I want to *know* when it's time to get ready for imminent inclement weather delivered by a named storm. (Rather than the normal havoc caused by unnamed storms.)
'shana
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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and the cone of error does have cuba in it but then west after that no Florida area not even the keys.Better go NW soon or it will have to go east some to make some peoples prediction.
I would just love to see it hit nobody as life is more important then being right.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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anyone have a link of africas sat? 
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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question could those quakes in puerto rico and everywhere else be shaking up these oceans? and does that have a effect on hurricanes?
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
anyone have a link of africas sat?
http://www.weather.com/maps/africaandmiddleeast.html
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Allison
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