Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050715 0000 UTC
...BAMD as far north as 27.5.....
Wow Corpus Christi. Did the models shift N or is it just that they are extrapolating out further? Looking at wunderground...GFS seems to show the possibility of a N trend along the TX coast.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Quote:
looks like franklin is getting its self together. 
From the latest Atlantic Tropical Wx Discussion...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 42W S
OF 22N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 15
KT. THE LOW IS BETTER-DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH HINTS OF
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTIVE
REMAINS MODERATE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15.5N TO
20N BETWEEN 39W-42W. A LARGE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES
ALONG 50W SHOULD INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION TO THE LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA COULD
BECOME THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TREKS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN... THOUGH UPPER WINDS ARE MARGINAL.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Per scott's mantra "Don't forecast anything past three days" seems to make perfect sense. The models known are finnaly feeling the weaknesses and finding the periphery of the ridge.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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StormSurfer
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
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Does anyone know of anywhere to get up to date info to import into Streets and Trips for hurricane tracking? I know I can get the coordinates etc and do it myself but just wanted to see if anyone was already on the ball so i wouldn't have to start from scratch.
Thanks,
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
do you see any storms hitting central florida this season?
Oh darn - where is my crystal ball when I need it :?:
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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its a definite shift north, however, the past several days the models have shifted north somewhat, and the did not really change their forecast track, then the models shifted back west... back and forth, but not that dramatic of a shift all in all... need to see a trend continue to verify if it indeed is a real threat to the Texas coast... in my opinion I think it very well could be...
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Heres a look at Emily from Aruba's radar...
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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958 via latest Recon, with max flight winds of 125Kts
T numbers at 6.0/6.0
110 or 115 Kts at 11pm?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
Lysis wrote:
EDIT: On your last post, I have a question about wind speed in relation to the systems forward speed. The LI express comes to mind, where the wind gusts were 180mph + despite the fact that the storm was only a category 3. Is that a product of the extremely high speed that the storm was traveling?
Hurricane Hazel in the 50’s (?) is another one.
in 1938, the year of the LI express was that a very active season and how did the long island express get that name..i'd like to know this ebcuase i live on and lovee long island..haha also, how slim is it that anything hits "the island" and if it does, will the impact be only on the south shore, becuase im on the north shore of nassau county..thanks for the help
.Ryan 
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html go look at 1938 there.. not a very active year, but that one little storm... if a hurricane moves over long island you'll feel it no matter which side you're on. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jul 14 2005 10:53 PM)
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Here's something a little off topic from Emily... But Do any of you remember anything about Hurrican Agnes in 1972. It originated in the gulf, hit the panhandle of Florida. It continued straid up to through Ga, Sc, Nc, and into the Atlantic. It re-gained it's strength and basically went right up the Hudson River causing over 2 Billion in damage and killing 50 people. Talk about one crazy storm for the Northeast!!!! But I will admit, I was not born yet.
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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11 PM is out...
Emily winds of 125 mph and a pressure of 957 mbs.
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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As for the wave behind and emily and up north a little is that supposed to develop and if it does where will it go?
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Re: Hebert's box #2, RedingtonBeachGuy wrote:
"Looks like Emily is heading right for Paul Herbert's #2 box.. so much for that theory with Emily it seems.."
I'm not sure what "theory" he is referring to, but I am guessing it is the interpretation of Hebert's theory to mean that a hurricane that goes through the box will, or is likely to, hit S. Florida. That is not what the theory says.
If I remember correctly, Hebert looked at strong storms that had hit S. Florida and found that a large percentage of them (but not all of them) had passed through one of two boxes, the one near P.R. and the one in the Western Caribbean. However, the theory did NOT say that a storm that passes through those boxes will hit S. Florida; instead, it merely said that storms that hit S. Florida have often gone through one of those two boxes. There is a big difference. But yes, if that were the end of the story, it would generally mean that when a storm passes through one of those two boxes, South Floridians should keep a close eye on the storm.
However, there are differences with every storm, and in the case of Emily (or, for example, a rare storm - which perhaps has not occurred yet - which passes through the P.R. box moving from SW to NE), S. Fla. obvioulsly does not have to keep quite as close an eye on the storm. (Although, of course, we should always be watching anything in the tropics.)
And in fact, I'm pretty sure that the second Hebert box was based on pre-1950 data, and that the actual theory has not really held up for post-1950 storms. (And again, even if it had held up, I think it says a lot less than what RedingtonBeachGuy implied.)
Additionally, I think that Hebert's second box applied only to late-season storms, for which Emily certainly would not qualify. And climatologically that makes sense: storms that form in that area in October often move in the general direction of Florida, similar to Irene in 1999. (Although I'm not even sure if Irene passed through that box; it may have, but I'm just not sure.)
Every year there seems to be a lot of confusion about Hebert's boxes. I haven't read about them in detail in years, but I know Hebert said something a lot different than he's often interpreted to have said.
Best of luck to anyone in Emily's path.
-Brad
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Based on her CI # of 6, should the MB's be lower? Or has she lost intensity since that reading?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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From the 11:
DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
What's the record on the earliest date for cat 4 hurricanes?!? Yikes!
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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From wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp
I know that and Emily should not follow the same path later, but look how identical they are now - WOW!
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Quote:
What's the record on the earliest date for cat 4 hurricanes?!? Yikes!
I think it's quite possible that almost everything that happens from now on this season will set some kind of record. ya know?
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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yep - it's one for the books.
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Wow! pretty strange. You never know what will happen!
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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I heard Franklin will be named a depression soon and could be going west so does this mean it could affect places like the Bahamas, Florida?
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