Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well this may be going out on a limb but ever since awhile ago when the outflow started looking so good, it seems like Emily was on a roll again. Now it seems like this is the case, because the eyewall replacement which has been trying to happen for the longest time is completing, and I think there are enough hours left for the conditions to improve in the core. I am thinking a very very small but powerful center will result before landfall, but everywhere else, not much punch. Now it looks like one of the recon flights is targeted to arrive after the others and to hang around in the area for some hours, so perhaps there will be up-to-date readings of the environment around the core right up until landfall around 11 tonight.
Well I'm gonna post this and go track down the 8pm update!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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is this because of the eye wall replacement or is it over with her? 
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Ok looking at the various floaters at the , it appears that Emily is falling apart *and* trying to make a hard right turn at the same time. What I think I'm seeing is the effect that land has on the hurricane, because it seriously looks like some sort of wall is just ahead of emily and the storm really doesn't want to go that way. I wonder if it could weaken the storm?
I'll look again in a couple hours to see if it's more than a wobble or optical effect. But I wonder if something ... odd... is taking place? Any thoughts?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Sun Jul 17 2005 08:10 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Storm surge is my biggest concern.What will the storm surge be now?Will going from 145mph to 135 make much of a difference?The main street there is only about 3 blocks from the ocean,I assume that will be wiped out.Just looked at the lastest loop,and she has got an nice eye again,in the last image. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sun Jul 17 2005 08:21 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Ok looking at the various floaters at the , it appears that Emily is falling apart *and* trying to make a hard right turn at the same time. What I think I'm seeing is the effect that land has on the hurricane, because it seriously looks like some sort of wall is just ahead of emily and the storm really doesn't want to go that way. I wonder if it could weaken the storm?
I'll look again in a couple hours to see if it's more than a wobble or optical effect. But I wonder if something ... odd... is taking place? Any thoughts?
-Mark
What is the time on the latest sat image you are seeing?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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She has an eye again,crap.She is looking much better.Just when I started to feel a little better,she is getting stronger again. [url=http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DAT
A/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html[/url]
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sun Jul 17 2005 08:34 PM)
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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is that almost a TD behind her? and is she regaining strength again?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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She is gaining strength,no question.Just have to look at that last image.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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why don't people flee these things ahead of time? they've known for a week for pete's sake. who wants to weather a cat 5 at a resort.
Emily is not a CAT 5
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2005 08:43 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
why don't people flee these things ahead of time? they've known for a week for pete's sake. who wants to weather a cat 5 at a resort.
What makes you think they have not left??They have.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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u think its a 5? lets just have a moment of silences and prayers for these people. this is gonna be bad.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Convection is still not entirely wrapped around. I wonder if cooler SSTs are upwelling in the shallower waters as she nears the coast.
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Michael
PWS
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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est 67000 us haven't left. I know a couple on honeymoon that stayed too late and aport closed. don't they have tv's
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK first recon is on the website, about an hour old, and pressure hasn't changed much, winds look like they're down to 130, maybe 125, thermal degree gradient low (2 deg).
To be expected at this point.
Doesn't it look like she could be downgraded to a Cat 3 at this point...but it is a couple hours away from the 11pm advisory but it will be interesting to see how she looks in two hours.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sun Jul 17 2005 08:49 PM)
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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is that a TD behind Emily?? If it is where is it going?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
OK first recon is in and pressure hasn't changed much, winds look like they're down to 130.
To be expected at this point.
OK,but just look at that last image,to me it is looking much better,you can see a well defined eye.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Convection is still not entirely wrapped around. I wonder if cooler SSTs are upwelling in the shallower waters as she nears the coast.
The eyewall is closed. I think the reorg is just not completed, probably will take a couple more hours for the eyewall to finish rebuilding.
Good thing is that now we'll have recon data!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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MikeinCorpus
Unregistered
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The latest NOAA discussion mentions that it is looking to take a more northern turn and the prediction was adjusted, but this is not reflected in the prediction is it? What do you all think?
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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yeah our sister company is in corpus i hope they will be ok. i dont wish this on anyone. not even mexico.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
est 67000 us haven't left. I know a couple on honeymoon that stayed too late and aport closed. don't they have tv's
Most all are in shelters,and safe.There are only so many flights out of there.Gudos to the Mexican Goverment,they did a great job.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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