SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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That is one perfrct storm. Amazing that we have had CAT 4 Hurricanes of 150mph or more in July! This is one scary Hurricane season.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
That is one perfrct storm. Amazing that we have had CAT 4 Hurricanes of 150mph or more in July! This is one scary Hurricane season.
Welcome back to the forums Sircane. Did ya'll get much damage with ?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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With this storm, all afternoon each satellite frame just looks better than the next one (better in the sense the storm looks stronger and balanced), even when you think it can't get more perfect. What an afternoon! We won't get to see anything like this again in a long time.
Looks like it may finally start to take that more northerly path, and may just skim the edge of the Yucatan instead of a direct hit, but all afternoon it's been going in a straight line, no jogs, nothing, just smooth sailing for Emily. Just thought it seemed to jog a little north...but maybe it will remain a jog.
Am I the only one who can hardly wait to see the results of the next recon?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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what satelite are you looking at? and what do you think the waves will do that are after emily? doesnt look like any of them will be named 
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Been comunicating via email with my friends in Playa del Carmen.People there are very laid-back , But today it seems to have really hit them that they could lose there town.Some are heading to Merida some will be staying with me here.This was one of the fastest growing towns in the world,but still there are no buildings over 3 stories.Already you can not buy any booze,this is the law there when a hurricane watch or warning is issued.Sadly to say there will be many deaths there.The whole area is about at sea level.Storm surge is going to be the real killer.My first quests from there arrive here late tonight.There are alot of americans that live and work there.Looks like they need a big favor from the man upstairs,to stair this away somehow.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The next recon soon...I for one am holding my breath to see just how strong Emily is gonna be. Now that the sun is low you can really see the stadium effect on the visible sat.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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G. J.
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
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8 pm update: Pressure down to 929mb, winds are still at 155mph
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I wonder if that will be enough for Cat 5 at 11.... I'll have to stay up for that...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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where the heck is franklin? i dont see him or anything out there now.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Surprised the winds did not increase, but after all pressure is still above 920. Guess it is better to be on the conservative side. Will be interested to see the recon data!
EDIT - OK now, hoping someone will explain this...max flt lvl winds went up from 141kt to 149kt which would seem to indicate Cat 5, although deg thermal gradient went down from 11 to 10. Pressure dropped 8mb in 6 hours. Why not a Cat 5?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Jul 16 2005 08:25 PM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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And, that motion looks like it has clearly been NW for a while.... if it continues on the present course it won't even clip the Yucatan....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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Hey have a quick question......have relatives going down to the bahamas leaving next wednesday and returning the week after....should they have any worries?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Post deleted by Margie
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I would think that if it drops anouther 8mb to around 920 by 10pm that they would have to call it a cat 5 .
Does anyone think that this could get below 900mb ?
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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Quote:
With this storm, all afternoon each satellite frame just looks better than the next one (better in the sense the storm looks stronger and balanced), even when you think it can't get more perfect. What an afternoon! We won't get to see anything like this again in a long time.
Looks like it may finally start to take that more northerly path, and may just skim the edge of the Yucatan instead of a direct hit, but all afternoon it's been going in a straight line, no jogs, nothing, just smooth sailing for Emily. Just thought it seemed to jog a little north...but maybe it will remain a jog.
Am I the only one who can hardly wait to see the results of the next recon?
As the storm pressure drops the steering currents change for the system. Here is an analysis of the steering currents at the current pressure and you may be correct.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I would think that if it drops anouther 8mb to around 920 by 10pm that they would have to call it a cat 5 .
Does anyone think that this could get below 900mb ?
We'll have to wait until morning for the next recon.
I don't see how it could get much below 920, 915. It passed over the warmest water today and is running out of ocean real estate before cooler water.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Hey have a quick question......have relatives going down to the bahamas leaving next wednesday and returning the week after....should they have any worries?
At this time No. They need to be ready to leave on the first indication of anything headed their way. Or around the Virgin Isles.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Surprised the winds did not increase, but after all pressure is still above 920. Guess it is better to be on the conservative side. Will be interested to see the recon data!
EDIT - OK now, hoping someone will explain this...max flt lvl winds went up from 141kt to 149kt which would seem to indicate Cat 5, although deg thermal gradient went down from 11 to 10. Pressure dropped 8mb in 6 hours. Why not a Cat 5?
Answering my own post...a little sick, I guess.
I realized maybe there is a lot of analysis for to do with the recon data, and why jump the gun before doing a complete analysis. 11pm advisory is plenty of time to upgrade to Cat 5, and maybe even wait until morning recon if it is borderline.
EDIT - I was just thinking also - if deepening continues at this same rate, which is certainly possible, it could be down to 920mb by next recon.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Jul 16 2005 09:17 PM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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That's what I was thinking, as frequently there are changes at 11p, but I wasn't sure, so I kept my mouth shut.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a quick way to estimate the Flight Level winds to Surface Winds.
Take the reported Flight Level Wind.
Change the knots to mph, and you have a rough estimate of the Surface Wind. Without all the math.
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