LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Major7
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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Very good. The number part had me stumped. Now, to dig a little further...
Is there any reason why they only use the numbers 90-99?
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Phil, I believe that model run had the incorrect initialization
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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As is often true with open waves. Those models initialize it as a weak system. We will have to wait and see as the models initialize it better.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Tropical storm Franklin look like it heading more west than north east
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Phil, I believe that model run had the incorrect initialization
i believe you're correct...
GIGO...plain and simple
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Those tropical models are useless......Stay with the globel models. ,Ukmet,Nogaps and Canadian ( at times). The wave near 37W will develop more in the next couple days as it will move over warmer water. Expect it to reach the leeward islands in 3-4 days.
scottsvb
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Sorry for off-topic post mods, i figured this was important, please move if needed.
NASA Analyzing Video Of Loose Shuttle Piece
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DaViking
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Crystal River, FL
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Sorry off topic. 
Quote:
By the way, couldn't see the shuttle on the West coast of FL either.
I saw it quite easily up here in Crystal River. Being this far away i didn't see the shuttle its self, but clearly saw the trail and flame. It was really cool.
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Lived in Florida 31 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I love it when newscasters/press get so sensational.
It's not a loose piece from the shuttle - it's the same foam that shed last time and NASA expected shedding this time. The most important fact is that it did not hit the Shuttle itself.
Sorry for the off-topic reply, but I really dislike how media grabs a hold of a tiny, insignificant event and then dresses it up like it's the second coming... 
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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It will be interesting to see what effect the Dust and Dry area has on TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W. There is about 800 miles of this dust area for the wave to travel thru.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey, Old Sailor!
Comment ca va?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Miami is hyping up a wave already, weird, what do they know that we don't?
DISCUSSION...BY THE WEEKEND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS OUT ABOUT 40W TODAY WILL BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE AND HELPING TO SWITCH THE FLOW TO EASTERLY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REGARDLESS OF ITS POSITION IT WILL AT LEAST SWITCH THE FLOW TO EASTERLY.
MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT BY
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TROPICAL WAVE WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I don't know how saying the flow will be switching easterly is hyping it up.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Usually 4-5 days plus in advance they just mention the possibility of a wave nearing the area and that is all. They don't usually mention the uncertainty of the strength of a wave that far in advance or that winds may be higher. I think it is because they are believing in the models possibly developing it more than just a wave.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Hi LL Phil:
As for any Comments just a gut feel here, that it will hidden the wave from developing soon, guess a wait and see as to how long it takes if it does to develop.Time will tell Phil.
Old Sailor
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Last few hours, plus blow up of convection, now calming down.
Note Bastardi fans: west mvt. I thought it was a loop at first....
MM
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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92L I'm not sure but it looks like it is organizing anyone else think the same thing? Also will that wave coming off of african limit devlopment and devlop on it own or could they both devlop?
Edited by NONAME (Tue Jul 26 2005 04:31 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Read 5 PM Tropical Discussion ........ Only 79 years old but have been to sea for 46 yrs, just an old sailor here.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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How is the wave at 40w going to be around Miami by this weekend??? 
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