Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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It is a nice storm to watch, isn't it? Quite impressive at this time.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Wow. The 18Z is a trip!!!!!!!!! Do a loop on that. Takes 95L to about 300 miles east of JAX then heads it into the DelMarva. Mean whilst, the trailing Jose goes through the Caribbean turning NW over western Cuba into the SE GOM!. All the while having several other storms develop. I thought I clicked on an old model, but no, its the 18Z (for what its worth). One big signal though; it shows a lot of potential activity!! Cheers!!
MJO, baby. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 04 2005 07:44 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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18z has future irene near 22/58 in 144hrs... thats in the east coast strike window. that's very un-gfs-like... whatever happened to up and out east of 60w? later runs are getting rid of harvey and rebridging the subtropical ridge. 's 5pm advisory looked more like earlier runs with nw movement in the extended range. if the 00Z runs are trending west the forecast track will go to the left. as mentioned this sucker is 10-12 days out if it's going to run across.. so lots of time for changes and tweaks and for the fairy godmother to go medieval on it.
harvey i'd say has more than a minimal chance at scratching hurricane strength. its convective organization has continued to slowly improve since it started looking purely tropical yesterday. it'll never get the call unless an eye structure starts to show, though.
the weak low near the mouth of the mississippi is the interesting side note today. there's a broad/sloppy gyre in the area, persistent mostly diurnal convection, and some weak anticyclonic ridging to building in the area. since it isn't moving a whole lot one good convective burst could get a more focused vortmax in the area.. and get the ball rolling. most globals have been showing a weak low in the area migrating inland over the weekend.. there probably isn't time for a spin up.
wave behind future irene has mostly support, but some of the other globals are tracking it. most keep it separate from the lead system and track it.. keep it on a low trajectory. it'll take days to do anything... modest chance it tries something.
should be busy all next week with irene.
HF 2342z04august
addon--some of the vorticity tailing SW of harvey might serve as a focal point as well. lots of the models that were trying to keep harvey stuck east of bermuda for days may have been hanging on to whatever gets left in the wake. -HF 2346z04august
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 04 2005 07:46 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it would be interesting to compare names; the last time we had Irene (1999) it was very unpredictable (although in a different place)
it hit Key West 12 hours after the 36hr forecast had it hitting Cedar Key
and it followed NONE of the model paths
Irene 1999
My forecast is along the lines of , although i think it will go further south, and their forecasts tomorrow will probably show that
a track similar to Hugo in 1989 or Felix in 1995 (without all the looping) are highly likely at the moment based on the model runs and all
I expect we will have Irene before 5pm tomorrow, and a hurricane before Saturday afternoon, and *POSSIBY* a Cat III by the end of the weekend (i give no certainties past 3 days, just what i think is the most likely out of several scenarios that may play out)
I will not get much more specific on the track until this has been around for a few days--there is still a possibility, although very small, that this could simply dissipate within 36 hours (that is usually the point in time at which it is certain, for me anyway, if something will hold together or not)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Steve, where's the show that far into the future? At 144h (6 day) it's still well out at sea, though I have to say, it does look like its heading my way 
GFS is definately showing Jose? behind it and a pair of strong systems moving into the eastern pacific.
Direct: http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
Source: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 04 2005 08:02 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I would not place confidence in the models this far out in time. Give it at least until Monday before focusing attention on trends.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Wow. The 18Z is a trip!!!!!!!!! Do a loop on that. Takes 95L to about 300 miles east of JAX then heads it into the DelMarva.
I believe that should read...
Into North Carolina, south of Cape Hatteras. Not the DelMarVa.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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here's the model run for showing the ridge building strong enough to keep Irene going west
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
sry forgot the link
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
Edited by Lisa NC (Thu Aug 04 2005 08:17 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looking at all the models.
GFS. Run to run is Not consistant.
8-20-05...00Z has 850mb Vortmax located at points between NC/ SC Border and the SE GOM.
Depending on which run you use.
04/00Z-off Melbourne
04/06Z- Nothing at 850mb
04/12Z-Off NC/ SC Border
04/18Z- SE GOM
Will have to wait and see what the 00Z runs tonight indicate.
However, The does indicate that a Tropical System will be active on August 19th at sundown.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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GFS Long range
East Coast storm and a possible GOM storm right behind....
here goes a record season next week and half.
18 slp Image
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
What sort of numbers would substantiate christening Irene?
2.5 translates to 40mph I believe. Latest numbers I saw were T1.5/1.5.
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Check the Surf
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Daniel - am I reading the UKMet (25N by 50W) and (20N by 60W) 144 hour models runs right that, at 144 hours, we'll have a very, very large cain in the Atlantic?
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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You people need to stop and think, has been all over the place last few runs, meaning doesn't have handle on the TD yet, nor does most other models, once , we get 3 runs where the same projection with in range then you can start to buy the models...
Dave
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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You are correct sailor. The thing I really wanted to point is that there are strong signals of a lot of activity in the next couple of weeks. Where 95L may go I'm not sure. Its kinda on a downward cycle now, but there is much potential for development in the tropics according to some of the Globals.
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Ryan
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Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
Steve, where's the show that far into the future? At 144h (6 day) it's still well out at sea, though I have to say, it does look like its heading my way
GFS is definately showing Jose? behind it and a pair of strong systems moving into the eastern pacific.
Direct: http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
Source: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
i wouldnt say its headed anyones way yet, i believe that this could make landfall anywhere on the east coast, if it doesnt turn out to see...also, if i lived anywhere from florida to maine i'd watch Irene
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Think you are right Steve there more systems waiting in the pipe line, but right now all eyes are on TD9, latest runs, lets see if they can repeat again and again.
Dave
TD9 Latest Models Run
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
GFS Long range
East Coast storm and a possible GOM storm right behind....
here goes a record season next week and half.
18 slp Image
There are two items that are missing on that projection.
The Low in the SE GOM is a 1000mb Surface Low. Read probable TD>TS.
The area in the Atlantic does Not have a closed isobar at the surface.
Read probable Tropical Wave.
Steve, the UKMET at 144hrs. I'm counting 24m/s (45kts) of wind at the 850mb level. And the wind barbs on the eastern side of the vortice at 850mb indicate 45kts. This might?translate to a Tropical Storm at the surface. The pressures are too high for a Major Hurricane. 1000mb or higher at the surface.
This location is based on the ridge breaking down, or developing a weakness.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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dont acuse me of wishing for storms or anything, all im saying is i get a bad vibe from this one(Irene)
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Wasn't acussing you of anything just saying you all need to stop and think about things, I been around Storms in both Wpac and Epac for close to 50 years at Sea. Seen it all in my life time..
Dave
Edited by Old Sailor (Thu Aug 04 2005 09:16 PM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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no sailor im not saying you were accuing me im just saying i dont want anybody to read my post and think im storm wishing.
sorry for the mis understanding, ryan
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Aug 04 2005 09:20 PM)
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