danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Your post piqued my curiosity about the " I " storm.
I checked -2004. Against TD 9's, 5 AM EDT position.
Ivan was centered near 9.0N/ 37.4W and had 50kt winds.
TD 9 is near 14.4N/ 36.1 W.
That would have put in much warmer water...climatologically.
So TD 9 is around 333nm NE of where was at approximately the same longitude.
SSTs do change. But is saying TD 9 is in cooler water for now. I believe it was mentioned in last night's 11 PM EDT Discussion.
Of course climatology is behaving badly this year.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gccalc.shtml?
This morning Area Forecast Discussions, from the Northern and Eastern GOM NWS Offices, are mentione a mid-level Low that is progged to meander around the ALMSLA Coasts this weekend. Almost all of the North Central GOM Offices are expecting this Low to drift toward the West.
No development is anticipated at this time.
Mobile, AL NWS Office has added "RAINFALL
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES." to All of the Mobile NWS Zone Forecast Products for this morning.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=ZFPMOB&max=51
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Actually quite shocked at where 95L is at the moment. Quite far north and heading to the NW ! at 6z dissipates it. does also. may have the best handle on it, as it keeps it alive as a TS, and seems to have initialized it well, showing pretty much the movement that early visible pix show. Let's see what evolves, but Stewart is pretty much on, saying it is heading for a weakness in the ridge caused by an ULL, but that will go away and fill with time, allowing a westward motion after a couple of days. Watch the models flip-flop like fish on the deck  Cheers!!
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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Actually, after looing at the visible this morning it looks like the center is moving more NNW. It could just be the location of the satellite making it look this way, but it appears to now be located at ~ 37W 15N....can anyone else confirm what I think I am seeing is correct? 
Thanks....And Have a Good Weekend!!!!
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Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Follow up on the 91 foot wave. There is an article on it here: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,164826,00.html
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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TD9 looks pretty ill to me...cool water, exposed LLC w/o convection, further north than expected and looking as if the LLC is elongating north...condition critical for long term survival.
I don't see this being a player...
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doug
Edited by doug (Fri Aug 05 2005 09:24 AM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085543.shtml?table
Angie im beginning not to worry as much now that that link up there has future Irene only being a cat. 1 or maybe a cat. 2 at most, and also the pressure iss waayy to high for this thing to be a major hurricane unless we have rapid intensification or something. What do people think about this?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Way to early to say it will not be anything,or that it will be a major storm.We all just have to wait and see.There is also a nice wave right behind it.It's starting to heat up again,and we have a long way to go. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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RyanRedCross1
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Yes, TD 9 looks sick from looking at the sattelite loops... and I hope it dies.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Looks like a weak Fish spinner. I guess its time to watch the next one behind it.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NHC confirming TD9's lack in organization at 11am in their discussion.
"How little we know about the genesis of tropical cyclones. Satellite
images during the day yesterday showed a distinct disturbance in the
deep tropics with all known factors apparently favorable for the
system to become a tropical storm. Surprisingly this
morning...visible images indicate that the system has become
disorganized"
Some drastic changes have been made to the forecast track and intensity as you will see.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Clark, I realize that this storm (TD 9) is way too far out to know what it is going to do but if it did impact the US how far down the line would that be? It looks like if it doesn't turn north it could impact Florida or some part of the East Coast. Anyway, I was just wondering how long it would take the storm to move from its current position to one close to the US coastline if it didn't turn more north. Thanks for the information.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I think we finally have our first dud of the season. But who knows, this storm may just turn to the west to screw with us.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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watch out Phil, that "buckle up" statement might be considered wishcasting  .
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i still think Irene will develope
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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IF the LLC can remain intact and move more westward for 24-48 hrs then something could fire there... never take your eyes off a surface low in the tropical Atlantic this time of year...the is turning positive and more vigorous over the next 4-6 weeks...expect the first spike in activity soon.
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doug
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
i still think Irene will develope
oh, irene will develop this season...the question is whether TD9 will become irene.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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thats what im saying, i think TD#9 will be Irene, but not pacxking much of a punch
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well...Avila's first sentence of the 11a discussion says it all with regards to TD 9. Lots of people look to be wrong on this one unless something changes and the system reforms further to the south. None of our model guidance or analysis products indicated this possibility, but lo and behold it has happened. Their forecast is probably on course for the time being, bringing it to a TS in a few days, but that's a far cry from what could've been and what was predicted just 12hr ago. Still one to watch, but the envelope is much different now.
Wave behind it bears watching, might be 96L in a day or two. Harvey's headed out to sea, though it'll hang around a little while before then. All in all, a false start to August, perhaps? We'll know in a couple of days.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nice analysis, as always, CLARK.
"we'll just have to wait and see"
coupla things...first off, if TD9 doesn't start on a more southerly track, it will, thankfully, not be a concern. if it continues on it's current nw track, shear monster takes over and it gets picked up by the trof in the north atlantic...that's the best possible scenario...but
"we'll just have to wait and see"
harvey still has an outside shot at reaching cane status today...since he's a threat only to marine interests, i wonder if would go "all out" to upgrade him...be interesting to see how that plays out
"we'll just have to wait and see"
finally, as clark pointed out, the wave behind TD9 could be the next potential trouble-maker, and the african wave train is moving full steam ahead. so lots to look for over the next coupla weeks, regardless, but
"we'll just have to wait and see"
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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