emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Going for stupid question of the week here. What is the xtrap on the models? Is it actually a model run? Can't be I wouldn't think. Too off from all the others. Can someone explain?
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bamffl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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I take the xtrap to be a direct extrapolation of what the track would look like if the storm continued on a straight path...
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You're just jealous because you can't hear the voices...
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It's looking like there is greater risk that the east coast of the USA will get impacted by Irene. Still, we need to watch where Irene is in 72 hours before alarms go off.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
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Can you please provide the link to the HPC discussion you are refering to?
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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Crp:
Here's the address for the latest HPC discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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These models are enough to drive one to drink...or maybe drink more. Since the most recent ones tend to be farther north, wouldn't the ridging have been taken into account...or is the ridging info post model release?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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lol i agree, i know i drink more during hurricane season heh heh
seriously tho, in respect to the models, i think timing is everything. Check out
the latest 12Z , it has this thing running all the way up the east coast by 144
hours. I think this is way to fast, and that the ridge will prevent this. but as we all
say.... we will see
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Are other models besides the tropical models (BAMM/D, LBAR, A98E) trending north? If not, then the northern trend in those models may be more a function of them not "seeing" the ridge as well as other (and generally more reliable) models are.
Don't rely only on the tropical models. Or only on any one model, for that matter. Or only on one run of/change in the models. Etc., etc.
Edited by Brad in Miami (Wed Aug 10 2005 03:32 PM)
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Actually, the latest BAM M has trended left again towards GA/SC border if extrpolated from the last point it depicts.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
Actually, the latest BAM M has trended left again towards GA/SC border if extrpolated from the last point it depicts.
I was just looking at that same trend. It looks like the tail wagging has begun on this one.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
lol i agree, i know i drink more during hurricane season heh heh
seriously tho, in respect to the models, i think timing is everything. Check out
the latest 12Z , it has this thing running all the way up the east coast by 144
hours. I think this is way to fast, and that the ridge will prevent this. but as we all
say.... we will see
yea i just looked at seeing it awfly close to me up here in LI, lets hope allt he models are wrong, lets hope Irene dies or just affects marine interests.
NOGAPS has been pretty reliable all season hasnt it, so i dont think im liking its new 144hr model run.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Imagine news casts from Miami north to Long Island will be singing a different tune on the system known as tropical depression Irene.
Really think she is a tropical storm by the looks of her on sats.. but I'm not the one making the call. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
Enjoying reading the discussion. Interesting to see what people think.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rick on boat in Mobile
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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meto
Weather Guru
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has anyone read the 11am diss. it said track will likely shift more west and south at 5pm. as i read hps is saying now. once under that expanding ridge, it will not be able to go north much in any direction.
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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The models are struggling to predict a solution out 4-5 days. What I look for are the big global trends (i.e. mainly the position and strength of the Atlantic Ridge or if there are any mid-latitude troughs predicted to drop down). I posted earlier about the building ridge after 96-120 hours (4-5 days). If this verifies, and its a big if still 5 days out, then the storm is either going to head west if its low enough in latitude or it'll get trapped within the ridge - in which case it'll stall and meander until some big change happens like the ridge moving or weakening. i try not to focus on the individual model runs but look for trends over several days. The global models like still have problems 4-5 days out - in this case, the ENS means (lots of runs averaged together) indicate building ridging after 4-5 days - how this translates to track is all a question of timing. The newest builds the ridge like the & UKMET, but it races Irene fast and beats the building ridge.
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RJB
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Wxwatcher2
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Acutally when you look at the entire Tropical Convergence Zone from the coast of Africa into the Gulf of Mexico, We're looking pretty good right now.
Only Tropical Depression Irene is really worth taking note of at this time and even that is not a huge threat to anyone.
If Irene comes across Florida as a minimal tropical storm, we could use the rain and a break from the hot humid summer.
Have to see the next few days what happens and if Irene turns more NW as I expect it to. TIme will tell.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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in the FSU model run in 120 hours off the coast of Arfica it looks like there is a possible wave/invest/TD...UKMET also shows the disturbance, but not as organized as shows it. also shows the disturbance at about 84 hours, then more organized at 144 hours.
i hope the active part or the season doesnt begin with Irene.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 10 2005 04:23 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Check out the lastest 12Z run of mm5 thru 84 hrs - while I just posted not to get too excited over individual model tracks, this one has shifted south and caught my eye.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/IRENE.track.png
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RJB
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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You should also note that it's only showing a TD at 84 hours.
web MM5 1200Z run wind
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