Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I notice that the BAMM and BAMD models have the storm starting to recurve in the extended period. Given what Ed is mentioning about the system stalling, I'm wondering if the idea of recurving might not be as far fetched as it seems based on the track given by , , UKMET, and .
It will be interesting to watch the system over the next couple of days. So far I think Irene hasn't conformed to the model concensus and seems to like picking an outlier. It might do it again, or even ignore the outlier and do it's own thing. That wouldn't surprise me one bit.
--RC
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Not a lot to add, just wanted to thank everyone for their input and keeping the site running smoothly.
Glad to see Irene taking a projected path out to sea. Always a nice thing to see.
The new depression bears watching but again, it's nice to have a bit of a breather the past couple of weeks. The end of August into September might be pretty active.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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The point of Ed's post was NOT to sound the all clear yet. Irene is spinning down a bit currently as easterlies do their dirty work. The ridging MAY block her off from going north or east. As she weakens a bit, she could move a bit westerly due to the shallower flow. I too noticed the sea breeze line din't behave as usual today and shoved the T'storms off to the SW. She's not really far enuf north to get affected by the westerlies either. Sh'e pretty much a sit and spin right now, but as the building ridge north of her moves to the NNE of her she will start to move WNW, then may stall again as the steering currents weaken , then move again when one ridge does a handover to another. She could be trapped for days, and that's why I'm heading to bed. Nite all. Cheers!!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yep.. irene has just about quit moving. having its outflow shield squashed and the surface sheared may decouple the mlc and start the system drifting west as a... well, weakling. i don't expect it to come over to north carolina regardless, but hey, the details of this one have consistently thrown me.
get to start fresh with the 96L disturbance. all of that early modeling bringing it nw is probably right, because there's one hell of a deep trough dug in behind irene and the ridge blocking irene. there will be some southwesterly shear with it, too.. once the system gets a little further to the north. i'd expect 96L to slowly deepen, and slowly move nw for the next few days... the ridge will fill back and send it hurtling west by the middle of next week. not unlikely to be jose, but not likely to do much for a few days.
waves coming off africa are more robust but packed close together.... out of phase perhaps. this should keep them jumbled up and slow to develop if one has such intentions.
favorable is coming on, but it's not progressing cleanly or quickly. keeps dipping negative and while that persists the backing and confused upper pattern in the atlantic should be slow to give way. it may not go strongly positive.. if it does look for the strong zonal ridge to become established in the atlantic again.
i've got a theory that action is much more intense and dangerous on the tail end of an wave... the response favors a strong subtropical ridge in the atlantic at that point.. and the favorable span has been active long enough to typically have perked up several waves. this one is just coming on, so by that measure things aren't really going just yet.. but say around august 20th through the end of the month.. well, we'll see.
random thing to watch... low is diving sw with the digging trough in the central atlantic. whatever happens to peel away from the trough and get under the ridge.. if anything, might be of interest. some models still showing falling pressures in the west carib/gulf by late week. not a definite but if anything happens to get over there...
HF 0601z13august
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 130552 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/05:26:50Z
B. 29 deg 30 min N
068 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1409 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 010 deg 042 kt
G. 284 deg 033 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0309A IRENE OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 05:16:50
on outbound leg after this.....a fl winds of 69kts was found
MF29.3 M067.9 MF069kts
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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as of 5:00 am, tropical storm irene was centered at 30.1 north and 68.6 west, or about 535 miles southeast of cape hatteras...moving to the northwest at 10 mph...maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts...minimum central pressure reported by recon was 997 millibars (29.44 inches of mercury).
as ed mentioned late last night, it is still too early to throw out the "all clear" sign for the EC, but...this is looking to be the most likely scenario by far...irene did NOT strengthen overnight, making her a tropical storm still (albeit a 70 mph ts) this morning...she's over warm water and facing relaxed shear, but does have some drier air to contend with as she continues to the nw...
she's currently tracking around the fringe of the bermuda high, which should push her nw, then n, then ne and out to sea...BUT...if the ridge continues to strengthen, this could push irene further west and possibly send her quite close to the coast...AND...the upper level ridge off the east coast could also build, causing her to slow down, perhaps making that loop-de-loop or a stall that was being picked up by some of the models...if she stalls or gets "trapped", then the east coast is not out of the woods by any means...i'm not buying into these possibilities, but they do exist nonetheless
i'm still close to sending out that "all clear" but not yet...if nothing else, this should wake up the east coast to the fact that we haven't even hit the peak of the season yet (and we're already up to "I") and the CV season will begin in earnest shortly...
today marks the one year anniversary of , which was damage-wise, the second worst hurricane in US history...cantore and others will be in punta gorda where the town will unveil a plaque memorializing the victims and the devastation
elsewhere in the basin, the tropics are showing increased life and i wouldn't be surprised to see what is now 96L becoming jose within the next day or two...
all interests on the east coast need to keep an eye on irene for at least a little longer...
BUCKLE UP!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Hope this post belongs here. Anyway, In my effort to educate myself about interpreting satellite images I keep stumbling across intersting sites, most of which you need a PHD to figure out . This one however does a great job of explaining remote sensing in text book form. So while we wait to see where Irene ends up and what develops out of 96L, for anyone interested, enjoy the reading.
http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/afwa/metsat-U1.htm
P.S. LI Phil - love your signature
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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pedro
Unregistered
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96L is know tropical deppression 10 according to the navy website it has winds of 30 knots that make it a 35 Mph tropical deppression
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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They are still showing it as 96L INVEST, not 10L NONAME.
Navy Site
Edited by AndyG (Sat Aug 13 2005 10:19 AM)
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Cat Adjuster
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
When you look at the above link the out flow from the north east of iIrene is being forced south. Will this force storm in more of a westward motion. Or is this the trapping they have been talking about. Someone please enlighten me. Please
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Irene is being push by the ridge on the North East as she curves around the High, that is normal at this time.
Dave
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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96L is probley the next depression probley already is one and they will issue advisory on it tonight.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Well the models i see so far on the new wave soon to be depression have it going north early also.
I know many of the people on here would be mad but i hope all the storms like back in the 80's all curve well before they get this far.
Lets not make comments like ".... people on here would be mad...". That is not the case.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 13 2005 01:42 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Yes, it probably is a Tropical Depression. It is fighting a little dry air intrusion, however outflow has improved significantly in the west quadrant. Banding is evident and at 13/15Z a circulation center was located at 13.7N 44.7W. Movement was to the west northwest - slowly. Winds close to 30 knots and pressure about 1008mb. I'd expect the system to move to the west northwest (and eventually northwest as it intensifies) over the next few days. The Islands are probably okay (with emphasis on the 'probably').
Cheers,
ED
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Well the models i see so far on the new wave soon to be depression have it going north early also.
I know many of the people on here would be mad but i hope all the storms like back in the 80's all curve well before they get this far.
There is no need for you to pick fights. Here it goes again...you're portraying the majority of posters on this board as wishcasters and destruction freaks. Please, don't do that.
And as for my opinion on 96L, all you need to do is look at the water vapor imagery. MASSIVE trough in Central Atlantic. 96L is probably out of here, espeically if it intensifies quickly.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Irene has been behaving as forecasted, although I thought she would of reached hurricane status last night, it didnt happen. The is being conservative until recon gets in there and I agree. Again expect her to move along the path and out to sea.
96L is not classified but should be. Clearly a LLC and a MLC embeded together. I think this is actually a TS and # are close. Pressures are around 1006mb in a tight area near the center. I bet at 5pm it will be a TD winds near 35mph and pressure around 1007-1009. Movement will be wnw to NW by early next week. Possibly a threat to Bermuda again. This one doesnt have a chance at hitting the U.S. Long range models and Alaska Sat, and obs show a dipping of the trough late this week into the weekend over the great lakes and eastern seaboard. This will drive the next system away from 65W.
Finally as I adv a couple days ago, expect the Sw carribean to be the next system of real intrest as I expect a TD to form down there by midweek. Movement should be NW into the Nw Carribean and near the Yucitan. This was supported by the and also last night now by the . Also new 12Z runs from now show a low in 6days over the Yucitan and the UkMet showing a low or low pressures in the area. Not sure yet on or if this will be a U.S landfall or where it will go. Matters on the trough going thru the great lakes and how far down into the Ohio valley it reaches to surpress the ridge over the S.E US. More later of course.
scottsvb
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mikeG
Unregistered
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latest recon i seen has pressure up to 1000mb and winds down
There are two af planes out there
URNT12 KNHC 131755
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/17:51:40Z
B. 30 deg 44 min N
069 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1419 m
D. 35 kt
E. 322 deg 044 nm
F. 063 deg 041 kt
G. 322 deg 043 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1519 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0409A IRENE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 17:13:20 Z
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mikeG
Unregistered
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the wave in center of carribean i think is what some models are hinting at something in a few days in sw carribean. wave should continue to move west and be south of jamica in a day or two
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margie_visiting
Unregistered
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Gee about two seconds after I observed last night Irene is starting to look like she's pulling tog, poof! it all goes...a diet of dry air is reducing her to skin and bones. And it looks like on sat images that the shear has been more of a factor in the last couple days than has been discussed. I keep reading about low shear and it looks like Irene is getting almost as much shear as some of the other storms we've seen in the last month, like Franklin. Can someone provide some feedback on this.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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3 storms in a row out to sea,and looks like if 96L develops she to will head out to sea.Could this be the story for this years storms?Does any long range forcast suggest this may continue.I know there is a long way to go,but the trend seems to be there.We can only hope. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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