Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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that's pretty close to where I had it, perhaps a tad south... really hard to pinpoint the exact center but I do believe an LLC is in development at this time and this system is moving w to wnw at the present moment... and GOM bound perhaps...
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Why do they have two names for it now this is getting more crazy and confusing by the moment.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by NONAME (Tue Aug 23 2005 10:54 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
this shows it real close to 23/75 i think
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Why do they have two names for it now this is getting more crazy and confusing by the moment.
Basicly They probably had some discussions and decided that there wasn't enough of xTD10 remaining in the new system to keep the designation. So if it goes to TD status, it will be TD11 (or 12).
I can understand the call, Tangentially, does anyone have any information that details the continuation of the name "Ivan"? It's a interesting compare to TD 10.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Zoom in a bit and you can see 1) a circulation, 2) WNW movement
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Does anyone else think will upgrade this before 5 I think will do like what they did with Jose yesterday and declare it TD10 or maybe 12 at noon.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by NONAME (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:16 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Yes, 99L (ex TD10) is looking better and better on sat image, or is that worse and worse? lol I guess it depends on your point of view. Anyway, it is becoming
better organized it seems to me. Will be interesting to see what recon sends
back this afternoon
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Once they change the Invest to 99L no longer concerned XTD10, it will be listed as a new TD 12 if it makes a TD or TS .
Dave
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Here's the "official" line on from the : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
(Scroll down towards the bottom of "Synoptic History," where it details being able to track as an entity through the entire process.)
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i checked the models, and ALL of them develop 10L/99L or whatever into a fairly decent system within 96 hours; even the and ukmet, which never develop anything, are developing this one (i do find it ironic though that the , with its missing frames, is full of gaps  )
i'm now able to see a closed circulation at least at cloud level on visible images somewhere near 22N/75W
Edited by Rabbit (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:26 AM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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From 11:30
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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I see that it looks to be improving but this looks like a very complex situation with still a lot of dry air and an upper low northeast of 99L moving west in tandem with the system. Looks like its going to be constantly struggling IMHO. Comments/corrections welcome. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Edited by Jekyhe904 (Tue Aug 23 2005 11:34 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a head up that the referring of exTD10 as 99L is causing a lot of headaches with the automated plotting here, so You may want to use the old TD#10 for model animations (Under coordinates on the left) until this is fixed.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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This Tropical weather site has TD12?????????????????????????
http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas87.png
If these are surface winds and the snap shot was taken at around 10:00 Zulu, then am I seeing most of a circulation visible? About the only thing I can't find is a southerly wind. hmmm...
You can also see some 30Kt winds in and near the center, along with some uncontaminated 40Kt winds in the rain band to the east.
Now is the rain band to the east considered a part of 99L? (it is 99L now, right? *laughs* my apologies, on even less sleep than normal).
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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99L - thumbnail will update automatically when models are run under this identifier
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
This Tropical weather site has TD12?????????????????????????
http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php
A little ahead of the game, but AL992005 (99L) will indeed become TD12 if it achieves Tropical Depression status. It may even grow up and get a name...
Much debate will likely occur over this, like last year when the remnants of reorganized. John Q. shouldn't care about the naming conventions, it just becomes an issue for the hardcore to debate.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon has left and is en route to the area now, hopefully in an hour or so we'll know more about the Bahamas area.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Here Is one of there Messages already I think it is the bahama flight. Also can someone decode this for me I've tried and I get confused every time I tryed using there decoding and it is confusing huh.
RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
URNT11 KNHC 231603
97779 16004 30268 82900 70100 99005 65721 /5762
RMK AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 03
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Really don't care what they call it, its the 's call. What I am Concerned with is that most of the models don't develop this for another 48 hours, and I believe we will have by then. I am basing this on the visible satellite pix, relaxation of the shear, and current organizational trands. LCC seems to be coming together now and we should have a depression by 11 pm. This raises a few questions regarding its path and strength. I believe it will strengthen a bit faster than the models have been depicting, and that in itself may only play a small role in its track, however its general movement has been to the WNW/NW, and the right outliers (NAM and ) may have a better idea (hate to agree with the LBAR) than the previous guidance, if only by shear luck! But I see this thing making a Northwesterly track for a day, then bending back to the WNW or west Thursday and Friday, ultimately ending up in the GOM. Its strength and WHERE it crosses is of interest for those in south and maybe even south central Florida in the near term. I'm glad recon is going out now to get a good read on this one. I don't believe the models have a good handle on it yet. They really couldn't, since no center is there to initialize on. Watching this one like a hawk. Cheers!! PS: This is not a official forecast; does that. 
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