Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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It'll be interesting to see what the plane finds. The ULL to the north of the possible surface low has developed some weak convection around its center and appears to be trying to wrap some of the convection to the south around its east side. That may end up becoming the dominant feature with respect to any tropical (or subtropical) development. It may take awhile for this whole thing to consolidate into an organized tropical system, if it does at all.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>This Tropical weather site has TD12?????????????????????????
TD #11 became Jose so this would indeed be TD #12.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Where is the main circulation? Looks like one north around 72w 25n and one south around 73w 22n. The one north looks to be entrenched with some dry air while the one south has more of a moist enviroment. The north circulation seems to be heading NW while the south circulation seems to be heading slowly WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html 
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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OB 03
Time: 1600Z
Position: 26.8 north // 82.9 West
Flight Level: 7010 meters
FL Winds: n/a
Temp/Dewpoint (C): -15/-22
Weather: Scattered clouds
400 Millibar Height: 7620 meters
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Models have now updated: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_99.gif
Appears landfall west of the Miss. is unlikely. I'll be curious to see the runs later on when they have info from recon. Would not suprise me in the least to see this upgraded today.
Also for those wondering, the floater is off of Jose and onto the area in the Bahamas now.
I feel that another noteworthy development is the fact that the 12Z develops the system curently exiting Africa and takes it in the general direction of the islands in about 8 days. 06 runshowed a storm in just about the same location in 16 days (which would be a 3rd system). Obviously the long range models are only a step above the trusty magic 8 ball, but this does seem to show an unsettling pattern developing.
GFS
Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The north circulation is the upper level low. This may slow down any development of the LLC which looks to be forming around n22-75
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Maybe this is what you meant, but that plot on the going much further south,
is the wave just about to exit the coast. The other one, further west, moves up and out per the
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Big red, here's the latest runs that I found on the site. Looks like I have more recent UKMET and runs while your link has more recent BAM & LBAR runs.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
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RJB
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Thanks Ron, with so many names, I guess it may take them awhile to get the plots sorted. Unfortunately, we look to be in the crosshairs on all of them. I wouldn't book a tee time this weekend...
New Watcher, thanks for catching that. I will go back and edit my post accordingly.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Not wishcasting here, but if it does get named, they will name it after me, . How cool is that? I think it is. My name is not that common. Any ways, we'll wait and see what happens.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Bastardi is gonna go nuts if N.O. gets in the cone.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Aug 23 2005 01:07 PM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Is he not posting his Tropical Update anymore on Yahoo?
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Dunno, I havent been able to get it for a week now, and am certainly not gonna
pay for it.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Is this the vortex message from 99L recon or have I stumbled on something old???
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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no those coords are from jose early this a.m.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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That was a message from Jose I dont know if Recon is in there yet but I know there on there way does anyone know how close they are yet?
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon will likely be in and surveying the area around 3PM eastern, and a little before that. 2-3PM
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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What are the chances of the fromer TD10 becoming a major storm before it hits land in South Fla and or the Keys? The system is moving really slow.....will it have time to strengthen into something big??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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last message I see from recon (via Hurtrack) was at 1632 UTC, at 25.8N 80.2W.
Hopefully be getting some reading from within the system soon...
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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You guys need to not rely on the dynamical models. They change from run to run more so then the global models. I look at them for entertainment only. Best model to use (I feel) is the . Others though will perform well with 1 or another storm during a season. If you look at what the and somewhat combine the ,UKMET and Canadian and put a plot between them,, you will have a decent forecast. The model ( not ) is decent as well. Anyways you need to look at the whole picture and enviroment data also to combine what a model might not see changing before its next run.
Right now with what could be TD12 it looks like this mornings burst might of given it life. Its burst was enhanced by a midlow over N Cuba and another to its NE. A weak low near 1010mb formed near 22.4N and 74.8W. Its movement is to the WNW with a bend to the NNW later tomorrow. It should become a TS in the next day or 2.
Im not changing my projected path ( although for florida it could go eigther way) but its going to be hard. I still expect it to be near Nassau later tomorrow and just N of Grand Bahama or 50-100 miles east of Verobeach, Fl by Friday morning. It should miss the trough and move back west or even wsw and cross the state late Friday into Saturday between WPB and the Cape. Could be a weak hurricane by then. It should move into the gulf later on Saturday between Venice and Clearwater. Movement will be slow. After that the guess would be a turn to the N and head up towards the Panhandle but that is more then 5days out. Further strengthning should be expected.
This path will be simular to Erin almost a decade ago but not exactly (of course).
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