Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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forecast advisory out
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
landfall near WPB forecast near hurricane intensity
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
and forecast to hurricane in five days
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I don't remember seeing a cone this large before
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
its just a slow-mover. they're almost always like that. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 09:09 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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A vortex message was issued at 2015Z, has the center a little north and east of the official advisory:
000
URNT12 KNHC 232025
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:15:10Z
B. 23 deg 21 min N
075 deg 07 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 163 deg 012 kt
G. 227 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 25 C/ 246 m
J. 25 C/ 245 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 3 / 1
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 18
MAX FL WIND 29 KT SE QUAD 19:10:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That's what his model was showing...BUT .... he also said it's early and things could change. I wouldn't take it as a "official forecast". He also said he was waiting for the first advisories from the to get a better idea. I think that's called CYA. 
However, if you read between the lines from this part of the statement given by regarding TD #12 you may have a general idea of where it's going:
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TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FORECASTER STEWART
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hopefully, like HF said, Stewart will be doing the 5pm advisory.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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trunk
Unregistered
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hmmm.. do they usually cancel flights in a tropical storm?
Have 40 people flying into Ft. Lauderdale Friday Night for our Cruise ship wedding in Ft. Lauderdale Saturday Morning Aug 27.. Hate to have people not be able to fly in and miss the wedding
There really is no backup plan so I'll just hope for the best
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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according to the forecast, we will have by this time tomorrow, which will break the old record for 11 storms by 4 days, leaving 97L a few days to organize and get named in order to break the record for L (also Aug 28; both were in 1995)
also, this thing is moving so slowly that the 24-hour forecast points on weather underground look like 12 or even 6 hour points
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MikeG
Unregistered
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
CORRECTED WARNING SECTION
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well...that is a large cone of death area. However, if you count the margins of error on each side of the track, that would account for some of it.
Believe me, it will shrink before too long!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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This may be the first double hit since Erin in 95. I guess my concern is it intensifying in the gulf and heading for the panhandle. We can't take anymore hits. They havn't even picked up my debris yet.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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XLM
Unregistered
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Looks like a thursday afternoon landfall, but remember, these storms always like to hit on weekends, So I"ll wishcast a weekend landfall at Minor Hurricane strength
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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What did they correct?
Trunk: I feel for you! The only thing I can tell you is to keep an eye on the weather. I'm not really sure where it's exactly forecasted to make landfall, but it appears to be somewhere in S. Florida. Airports will close if it is too dangerous to fly in/out of there. The cruise ships will do the same, too. I would check and see what their storm policies are...good luck!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Interesting link on climatology. Most storms from this location in August have not gone into the GOM:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_climo.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i find it a little odd that erin is not on there
erin was never operationally a depression, and was a hurricane by july 31st. it doesn't fit the search criteria. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 23 2005 09:07 PM)
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notsignedin
Unregistered
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TD 10 will likely regenerate and should reach at least tropical storm strength.
• The system will likely peak at hurricane strength.
• The system will likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Odds favor an area running from Alabama across the Florida Panhandle (possibly within 100 miles of either side of 87.0W), but this is not yet assured.
The 8/23 18Z guidance still generally supports the idea of this system crossing Florida (probably southern Florida) and entering the Gulf of Mexico. There are some exceptions.
As for Invest.97L, the risk of U.S. landfall appears minimal.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think they changed it to a Friday afternoon landfall and out of central gulf coast of Florida by Saturday. The one thing that worries me is the forward speed (as of right now). I guess that could change; however, the slower it goes, the more time for it to get its act together and also the rain could just sit there and soak us.
Of course, this is all just my thinking...and I could be completely wrong.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Stewart discussion at 5:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.disc.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
This may be the first double hit since Erin in 95.
What about last year?? Granted, she did not get far out in the Gulf, but, technically this does qualify as a double landfall.
--Lou
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Are you talking about a different storm when referring to TD#10? Or are you referring to the old TD#10 which is now TD #12?
I understand that some here think this should still be TD #10, but it's not. It's TD #12 and to avoid confusion to us and newcomers who will no doubt tune in here, can we just refer to this storm by the 's official name?
Whether it's actually TD 10 or TD 12 won't matter much by tomorrow, because it will be . 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Your right recmod....it did get back to the gulf...but I do not think it regained hurricane strength before second landfall...Erin was a hurricane at both landfalls and to be could make cat 1 before the 1st landfall, and should definately before the second
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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And what about ? It hit Pensicola, then looped around, went out over the Atlantic near NC, passed over FL as a Tropical Wave, and hit Texas. Hmmm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan1.gif
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